Bitcoin-Chartanalyse

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Bitcoin-kurs-Trends
ein Trend aus chartanalytischer Sicht entsteht, wenn mindestens 2 Punkte einer Kurskurve verbunden werden können. Ein Chartist wird aber immer erst einen Trend orten, wenn mehrere Auflagepunkte vorhanden sind.
Trends entwickeln sich und sind in den Zeitabschnitten zu betrachten, die dieser Trend beschreibt.
Der Grundtrend seit 2011 hat etwa 5 Auflagepunkte und ist der Primärtrend des BitcoinKurses.
Auf diese lange Betrachtungszeit bezogen befinden wir uns in einem bullishen Aufwärtstrend.
 
Dieser Trend wurde 2013 durch einen Sekundärtrend ergänzt (blau gestrichelt),die berühmte "Rallybeschleunigung seit 2013".
Nach dem Allzeithoch Ende 2013/Anfang 2014 setzte ein down-trend ein, der,wie hier bereits mehrfach beschrieben, in der Chartformation eines bullishen ,symmetrischen Dreiecks erfogte, oder in der hier im Chart verwendeten Bullischen Fahne.
Nach Auflösung der Dreiecke , respektive der bullischen Fahne, entwickelte sich ganz kurzfristig scheinbar ein Aufwärtstrend (direkt nach Ausbruch aus der Fahne zu sehen) Der Aufwärtstrend setzte sich dann aus fundamentalen Gründen (Enttäuschung über das NY Regulation Proposal) nicht fort.
Seitdem befinden wir uns in einem ( rot) Seitwärtstrend.
 
Wie eingangs beschrieben erfolgt diese Trendbestimmung chartanalytischen Grundsätzen, unabhängig von subjektiven Meinungen, die eventuell immer noch einen Abwärtstrend sehen.
 




Hier mal ein "echter" Downtrend mit einem klassischen dead cat bounce von Mt.Gox:

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Bitcoin Price Watershed – Water Cannon or Waterfall?

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-watershed-water-cannon-waterfall/

 

 

Updated: September 28, 2014 at 4:46 pm CET.

After ten months of decline, the only option for the Bitcoin price seems to be more downside. Analysis considers the state of the decline and defines confirmation signals for trend in the months ahead.

Bitcoin Price Chart Overview

Two channels of price action imply two very different paths for price:

The red channel, at first glance, seems to be the logical choice and implies a decline low around $200. If price does not break below the purple channel‘s lower trendline (with a caveat – see below) then, we face the prospect of an immediate advance.

Fortunately, we don’t have to guess because price will show us the way. The current price juncture – at the tipping point between blatant bullish and bearish scenarios – allows us to define clear confirmation signals of impending price action.

Bitcoin Price Support and Resistance

The following Bitstamp daily chart has been annotated with support and resistance levels. The S/R levels are not exhaustive – only the most salient levels are shown to preserve clarity.

Notice the pivotal role of the $500 level throughout the corrective decline. Having served as support (circled in magenta) during the first leg of decline to $340, the $500 level then became a pivot (circled in red). The second leg of decline unfolded around the $500 pivot – with long-running $380 acting as lower support.

On Friday 19 September, price action bounced off the support floor at $380 and has since maintained a slightly advancing trajectory. The wave structure can be interpreted as a consolidation before trend continues below $380, or the Bitcoin price may be coiling up prior to advancing on $500. Clear enough – perfectly ambiguous. The alternatives are unpacked below.

Bitcoin 4-hour Chart

At the time of writing, price action is approaching the supporting orange trendline (lower purple channel trendline in the weekly chart, at top). Previous analysis updates had argued that a break below this trendline implies continuation of the downtrend. The case is being redefined today because of the duality of the present juncture between extreme bullish and bearish scenarios.

Bearish Confirmation

If trend is indeed about to resume the path of decline then we require more confirmation than a simple breach of the orange support. Trade may, for example, break below the orange support only to return above it and advance. It would be prudent to allow price to demonstrate that it is not making a double-bottom at $378. Additionally, wait for a 4-hour candle to both open and close below the $380 support level (on the Bitstamp chart) before building a short position targeting $300 and below.

Bullish Confirmation

As can be seen in the chart above, the Bitcoin price is currently trading below the green 20-period moving average (20MA).

Bitcoin price advance from a decline low has an established mechanism whereby a falling 20MA is leveraged to slingshot to a falling 200MA. Here are examples (circled in blue) from 2012 and 2013. The examples are drawn from the Bitstamp 4-hour chart.

In both cases, price establishes trade above the 20MA and then targets to the 200MA. Once atop the 200MA, advance to new highs can proceed.

If we are indeed at a decline low then, we will expect price to conform to this pattern of advance – not in the exact same manner, but with allowance for variation. For example, in the 2012 example, price climbs on top of the 20MA, corrects to below it and then re-establishes trade above the 20MA and achieves the 200MA. Similarly, in both examples, there are similar patterns, circled in orange, that scale the 20MA and then the 200MA – only to resume the decline since correction was not yet over. We should make allowance for this outcome too – never assuming that price action will unfold the same way twice.

Although there is a historic preference for the 200MA, advance may target any of the levels shown in the current 4-hour chart.

Summary

The Bitcoin price is currently at a critical juncture with strongly bullish and bearish potentials. We have identified levels and price action signals that will serve as confirmation of trend direction and dictate our trading actions in the market. At the time of writing we await more price action. Advance above the 20MA will open up the 200MA near $460. Decline below $380 – accompanied by the opening and closing of a 4-hour candle below this level, will herald continuation of the decline.

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Are all the weak buyers out?

     https://www.tradingview.com/v/J5JRBPJT/?utm_source=notification_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=notification_publish

 

 

 

 

Currently watching $345-$400 to see how the market
reacts to this major key support zone. I think many weak
longs are already out of the market, so I would expect to
see bulls able to hold this level for a while unless something
crazy happens.

I think the $300-$400 price range is a good "wholesale" area
to start accumulating for long-term investments. That doesn't
mean I think this is a "bottom" in the price of bitcoin, just that it's
healthier to buy near technical support than chase big spikes,
which is unfortunately what a lot of new investors/traders do.

Bearbeitet 29. September 2014 von segeln

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Navigating the Bitcoin Price Swings

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/navigating-bitcoin-price-swings/

 

 

Weekend trade pulled the Bitcoin price below support at $400. At the start of the European session today, an intraday low was printed across exchange charts – $364.79 at Bitstamp. The new low has made decline to $200 a possibility, but it’s unlikely to be achieved in a single wave down.

Time of Analysis: 13h00 UTC

Bitcoin Price Development

Yesterday’s analysis proposed confirmation signals for both advance and decline. The development of price action since then has confirmed that additional decline is on the cards. We’ll consider the likely targets after a look at the Bitcoin price chart as it stands at the start of the US session.

Price dropped down to a trendline connecting the June high, the August closing low and last week’s closing low. The trendline intersects with the 2.618 Fib extension at $265 where the price low printed. A lower target waits at $361 – a 3.618 Fib extension of the first wave of the current larger degree wave of decline. Price may not attempt it just yet since a move up is underway at the time of writing.

In accordance with a confirmation signal defined in yesterday’s analysis, a 4-hour candle had opened and closed below the long-term $380 support level, thereby invalidating prospects of a reversal from current levels. In typical market duality, price may return to $400 (or above) in order to prolong correction prior to the final five waves of decline.

Bitcoin Price Channel

The purple channel of advance has been invalidated. We can now turn our attention to the red channel and consider the path of price going forward.

Depending on how rapidly decline unfolds price could hit the lower trendline anywhere between $200 and $300. Except for the Fib extension at $361 and support at the previous decline low of $340, there are few obstacles between $380 and $200. The zone between the lower channel trendline and $340 may be traversed with great rapidity and the final journey should, according to the Wave Principle, be a five wave structure.

As always, the assumption remains that until confirmation to the contrary is obtained, the larger downtrend remains in force. We keep an eye on the 20MA and 200MA (as per yesterday’s chart) for evidence of an attempt on the 4-hour 200MA. The reason that we keep those chart patterns in mind is because:

• price action may ignore the red channel lines
• the wave down may truncate – falling short of the lower trendline – possibly reversing from current levels

At the time of writing, the MACD and RSI indicators are showing substantial divergence from price, thereby implying that an upward correction is due. Its distance of travel cannot be determined at the time of writing because an initial wave up has not yet completed. An analysis update will be posted as soon as the chart gives more clues.

Fractal Reserve – Previous Bitcoin Price Swings

The recent corrective structure has a strong resemblance to a previous structure with a similar form and function. The two corrective structures are circled in red in the Bitstamp hourly chart below. If price action were to unfold in a similar manner then we can expect the current upside correction to be a three wave structure similar to the structure that followed the previous fractal pattern. The first wave should target $396, and then decline, followed by a retrace above $400.

If price action fails to make the initial journey to the vicinity of $400 then, the identified pattern is not what is unfolding.

Despite strong divergence in RSI and MACD, it is still possible that the decline continues in search of the Fib target at $360. However, even with a marginal new low, the fractal pattern discussed previously seems a higher possibility outcome.

Summary

The final leg of decline since June has been protracted. It is still in effect, and $300 is finally within reach, although a decline low of $200 is possible.

Currently, a complex correction with a large wave degree is in progress. The structure implies a fourth wave which would setup a final five wave decline to the bottom.

Traders are advised against trading any aspect of this fourth wave because it is bound to display variation from its previous fractal structure. Instead, wait for decline to resume if you’re looking to short-sell the market. Alternatively, engage a strategy of gradually scaling into the coming reversal.

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Bitcoin Trading- BTC/USD Technical Analysis, Sept 29: BTC slides to new 2014 lows

http://dcmagnates.com/bitcoin-trading-btcusd-technical-analysis-sept-29-btc-slides-to-new-2014-lows/

As anticipated, the euphoria from PayPal’s next step into Bitcoin has worn off- and then some. No more than 5 days after bitcoin (BTC) was sent soaring to $450 on the news, it has slid back beyond the $380 starting point.

Minutes ago, BTC hit yet another 2014 low of $361 on BTC-e and is now trading at $367. Excluding abnormal trading conditions (e.g. flash crashes), these prices break the tenuous $370 short-term support level, BTC’s previous 2014 low set 10 days ago. While $370 did provide some support in the immediate term, it is still a highly vulnerable price point. There is little historical precedent for support between $200 and $400. The current decline may continue at its gradual pace as pre-November 2013 investors contemplate cashing on their profits.

 

BTC is now 31% off its 200-day moving average (MA), which is also a new 2014 low.

Volume has been moderate, averaging about 300 BTC per hour for the past 12h.

BTC has not gained more than 5% since the PayPal-induced spike.

Interestingly, most other coins are well into positive territory during the past 24h. The selling has been more bitcoin-centric. The relatively low scale of loss also suggests that this is not a panicked sell-off, which would usually drag most coins well into the red. It also suggests that, best case scenario, these prices are here to stay for some time, and worst case, further declines into the low 300’s are in order.

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Bitcoin Offers Fresh Sell Signal

30 September, 2014 GMT

 

By: Ben Myers

BTC/USD continued to remain in a strong downtrend in yesterday’s trading session. The digital currency post breaking below the all-important support zone at $380 has been unable to climb above the mentioned level. The BTC/USD continues to remain below important daily moving averages. The resistance for the BTC/USD remains near the $380 level and the support now shifts down to levels of $342 on the downside.

The stochastic oscillators for the digital currency have given a fresh sell signal and also have formed a lower high which is a divergence signal. The relative strength index has shown some signs strength but only a close above the aforementioned resistance zone at $380 would provide any confidence to the traders and investors.

Boston based Circle Internet Services has opened its invite only Bitcoin financial service to everyone. This is being seen as a huge positive for the digital currency in the near term. The development means that anyone in the US can now link their bank accounts with the Bitcoin services provided by Circle and start using the Digital currency.

There are no charges for fund transfers between accounts. This step is being seen as a massive game changer by the industry, and also the first step towards incorporating the BTC/USD into mainstream usage. In other not so exciting news, a pub in Dublin which had started accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment from patrons has stopped using the currency citing the legality involved with regards to the use of Bitcoin ATMs’. The Central Bank in Ireland said that it does not recognise Bitcoin as a legal form of currency.

Actionable Insight:

Long BTC/USD above $380 with a stop loss below $360 for a short term target at $400

Short BTC/USD at current levels for short term target at $340 with stop loss of $379

 

 

Bearbeitet 30. September 2014 von segeln

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Is Bitcoin Having a Dead Cat Bounce?

http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2014/10/Is-Bitcoin-Having-a-Dead-Cat-Bounce-October-1-2014/34848

01 October, 2014 GMT

 

 

By: DailyForex.com

BTC/USD showed some strength in yesterday’s trading session bouncing back from the lows. The digital currency was unable to sustain at higher levels, which is a cause of concern. In the morning session, BTC/USD has opened higher and seems to have a bullish bias at the current moment. The resistance for the BTC/USD continues to remain at $400 and the support for it remains at $367.

Traders believe only a move above or below the aforementioned levels would provide for the next direction in the near term. The stochastic oscillator for the BTC/USD continues to remain under pressure confirming the strong negative bias. The BTC/USD continues to remain below all-important moving averages which are a bearish indicator. On the volume front, the upmove seen in yesterday’s trading session was on low a volume, which raises question marks about the strength of the rally.

News over the past few days about PayPal agreeing to incorporate Bitcoin as a valid form of payment has been a huge positive for investors. PayPal is said to sign up with companies like Coinbase to bring make Bitcoin easily accessible to the common person. Coinbase as a business model is more of a brokerage but it behaves like a bank as there are not many players in the marketplace, which allows Coinbase to play the role of an intermediary between investors who want to use Bitcoin as a form of payment for all their transactions. Coinbase, according to its founders has been setup with a sole purpose of making Bitcoin easily available to the masses and making sure about the long-term sustainability of the digital currency.

Actionable Insight:

Short BTC/USD if it closes below $367 with a short-term target at $320

Long BTC/USD if it closes above $400 for a short-term target at $441

 

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Bitcoin Price Analysis and US Stocks Decline Danger

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-analysis-stocks/

 

Updated: October 2, 2014 at 6:58 pm CET.

Trade continued sideways today with the market looking undecided about direction. The Bitcoin price is $180 away from a clean decline bottom at the $200 price level. Sellers are all sold out, and buyers are apparently waiting for a sign from heaven.

Update

This Update: October 2, 2014 at 4:40 pm UTC.
The Bitstamp chart in the section Bitcoin Price Projections (below), features a red path and a blue path of price action. Positioning in the exchange orderbooks will make the blue path near impossible, with the price area between $330 and $360 containing over 10,000 BTC buy orders. If the bulls only defend this area then the blue path may extend sideways. If retail bears pull price into the area then those orders being triggered may see the red path of advance come alive. Here is the Bitfinex depth chart, at the time of writing:

Review of Decline

The stairstep pattern of decline has repeated itself twice since June 2014. Compared to the pattern of decline from January to April there are some similarities, but no 100% correlation. The market scarcely provides the exact same wave pattern twice – and when it seems to, there is always a twist.

The declining price action since June has an unusual wave pattern that is distinctive to Bitcoin. In retrospect, there is a repeating motif, but while it was unfolding it seemed unlikely that it would repeat so many times. Additionally, there were potential reversal zones – junctures where price could have turned to the upside – and still price pushed down after convincingly feigning reversal. Weekend analysis will cover a more detailed review of the downtrend.

Bitcoin Price Projections

Original Analysis: October 2, 2014 at 2:20 pm UTC.
Following requests from frustrated readers who asked that I state my opinion about trend, I oblige with a disclaimer: the price paths drawn on the following chart are two potential paths of price action and should not be traded blindly – any analysis presented here should augment your own.

The blue path projects an immediate five waves down to $360 followed by retracement and then decline to $333. There the decline should strike a low and reverse. This view is based on the fact that price has fallen below the 20MA in both the 1-hour and the 4-hour charts, and that momentum had slowed, prompting a breakout. A break to the downside would be swift, but will cause extreme divergence in the indicators, thereby limiting its distance of travel.

The red path advances to support near $417 (or higher) and may then resume decline in an arching wave down to $304. Price could later continue to $200. This view sticks with the analysis of the past few days that expects a larger pattern similar to the structures surrounding waves 3 and 4 (top, left of center) to unfold in the current wave position. This projection involves an increase of momentum and, therefore, stronger waves of decline. As a result, it may spike downward past $300, so be sure to have orders waiting there.

Bearbeitet 3. Oktober 2014 von segeln

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Hier die aktuelle Trendsituation

Der Grundtrend liegt heute bei 170 $

 

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Bitcoin BullBear: Price Likely to Plunge Below 340 – A Long-term Buying Opportunity

http://bitcoinwarrior.net/2014/10/bitcoin-bullbear-price-likely-plunge-340-long-term-buying-opportunity/

 

Analysis provided by Bitcoin BullBear.
 

Compared to the past month, the past week has been relatively mild in term of news flow and price action. We find this interesting given that when the good news was pouring in, prices were cratering, but now that the news has subsided somewhat, the market has stabilized.

We are not sure if this phenomenon has any relevance in terms of the longer term forecast for bitcoin, however we do find it interesting. One thing it does is help explain the large bullish divergences in RSI and MACD, as it tells us that bearish momentum is waning and news is having less and less of an effect on the internals of the market.

With that in mind, the short term technicals are telling us that there needs to be a retest of the $365 low to see if it is indeed legitimate. Our suspicion is that the market will breakdown through that level on the way to a panicky low above $300 and below $339. Again, we view $300 as a long term gift and will use it as a buying opportunity.

Key levels to watch over the coming week are $365, $339, and ultimately $260 to the downside, while $398, $434, $497, $511, and $534 are key levels to the upside. Just a note on resistance, all of the levels mentioned would need to be taken out on volume before we would begin to consider the possibility that a bottom is in and a reversal to a new bull market is underway.

[Wochen-Umfrage]

interessant ist wenn man zurück blättert auf den 20. Februar 2014 dennd ann findet man deisen Chart https://www.tradingview.com/v/jpqNwZap/

ich meine die Reaktionen der User hir !

 

Es ist erbärmlich wie so manche reagierten auf die klare Ansage das der Kurs zur Linie gehen wird.

 

Trotz diverser niederträchtiger Aussagen ging der Kurs heute Nacht zur Linie und erfüllte die Prognose und beschämte die User von damals. Doch anstelle demütig ihre Frechheiten von damals in abbitte zu leisten pöbeln sie heut  zb. in der neuen Umfrage weiter https://www.coinforum.de/topic/3310-umfrage-wo-stehen-wir-am-freitag-abend-10102014/

 

abschließend  der neue Chart  https://www.tradingview.com/x/C267VbF7/   X das Ziel

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A horrific weekend for crytpo trading: Bitcoin price plunges to $304, alts follow suit

http://dcmagnates.com/a-horrific-weekend-for-crytpo-trading-bitcoin-price-plunges-to-304-alts-follow-suit/

 

Bitcoin (BTC) investors are going through one of the most miserable weekends this year as volatility has returned to the crytpo markets.

BTC just hit a new 2014 low of $304, falling even below the $309 mark during August’s flash crash. The current price is the lowest since November 11 last year, when BTC was in the earlier stages of its multifold ascent to $1100.

But this was no flash crash. The losses began Friday, spanning over 3 days and now totaling 17%. The stage had been set when BTC barely pierced its 2014 low and hit $361 one week ago. After this support level was broken, the initial stage of the decline progressed quickly, thereafter transitioning into a drawn out, staggered slide. And as assessed last week, conditions were ripe for a decline to the low 300’s. There are no support points between $200 and $400, so any breaking of recent lows is liable to snowball.

Following the first low of $310, BTC did bounce 8% to $336, but then suddenly reversed course and progressed to yet another low. It has lost 9.5% in only 4 hours.

Historically, BTC has easily pulled off 17% losses within 24h. This considered, plus the lack of any historical support, it is possible that we won’t see a break from the selling just yet.

As typical in a volatile market, the spread between BTC-e and its peers has widened to $9 (3%).

Alts tag along

Litecoin (LTC) has resumed its trailing of Bitcoin activity, also trading at 2014 lows, now at $3.52. Unlike BTC, it is still well above its flash crash low of $3.33.

It continues to conform to the pattern where following BTC is only allowed during major moves. When BTC slowly gravitated back to the 360’s, Litecoin had actually held its ground fairly well.

Unlike in previous major market moves, however, LTC has not compounded BTC’s losses. The two shedding roughly an equal percentage, LTC/BTC is still challenging multi-week highs.

Most other alts have also declined by similar proportions during the 3-day period and the past 24h.

[Wochen-Umfrage]

nun könnte es hoch gehen  um das Gap zu schließen ....... doch der weg ist übergeortnet short

https://charts.mql5.com/5/869/btc-mini-h1-ava-financial-ltd.png

 

[shambala]

Den Gap gibts nur bei Brokern die das Wochenende nicht mitschreiben. Weiß nicht ob man das wirklich einen relevanten Gap nennen kann.

[Wochen-Umfrage]

ja kann man  ... schon 100 mal das gap vorgestellt und das schließen ......

[shambala]

Wie funktioniert das markttechnisch? Durch Leute die am Wochenende nicht auf die Charts schauen?

[Wochen-Umfrage]

nun könnte es hoch gehen  um das Gap zu schließen ....... doch der weg ist übergeortnet short

https://charts.mql5.com/5/869/btc-mini-h1-ava-financial-ltd.png

 

 

 

 

update

 

https://charts.mql5.com/5/874/btc-mini-h1-ava-financial-ltd.png

 

lol i bin nicht nur immer bär ......... doch nun habe ich nach gap close verkauft !!!!!!!!!

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Den Gap gibts nur bei Brokern die das Wochenende nicht mitschreiben. Weiß nicht ob man das wirklich einen relevanten Gap nennen kann.

Welchen gap meinst Du?

Bei Bitcoin gibt es keinen gap,da bitcoin 24/7 gehandelt wird

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Bitcoin Hits 11-Month Low

http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2014/10/Bitcoin-Hits-11Month-Low-October-7-2014/34971

07 October, 2014 GMT

 

 

By: Ben Myers

BTC/USD on the daily charts recovered from lower levels in yesterday’s trading session and continues to exhibit buying momentum in the Asian morning session. It is important to know that the BTC/USD hit an intraday low of $282 before bouncing back above the psychologically important level of $300. The BTC/USD continues to trade below its important daily moving averages. Resistance on the upside comes near the $362 level and support continues to be near the $300 level. The stochastic oscillator for the BTC/USD has given a fresh buy signal which is a bullish indictor. Similarly, the momentum indicator for the BTC/USD is showing signs of reversal which is being seen as a return of buy side momentum for the digital currency.

According to reports, Overstock.com has assembled a band of coders to create a stock exchange to issue corporate paper sidestepping traditional stock exchanges like the NYSE and the NASDAQ. The company said that it is trying to mirror the way Bitcoin works and would try to create “crypto-security” based on the crypto algorithm. This is being considered a huge game changer for the financial industry.

The founder of Overstock.com believes that just the way Bitcoin was able to revolutionize the currency market, the crypto exchange would change the way investors look at Wall Street. There were news floating around in the Bitcoin markets about market manipulation behind the sub $300 fall seen a couple of days ago. Many believe that a huge sell order was executed below the market price, which led to the huge fall on the back of volumes.

Actionable Insight:

Short BTC/USD below $300 for a short term target at $273 with a strict stop loss above $321

Long BTC/USD at current levels for a short term target of $362 with a stop loss below $300

 

[shambala]

Welchen gap meinst Du?

Bei Bitcoin gibt es keinen gap,da bitcoin 24/7 gehandelt wird

Die meisten Broker sind am Wochenende einfach zu und notieren keine Kurse. Macht Sinn, weil fast alle Börsen und Handelsplätze am Wochenende zu sind. Im Forex gehts dann am Sonntag 23:00 wieder los, wenn die Börse von Sydney online geht.

Wenn der Broker so nebenbei auch Bitcoin-Handel anbietet, hält er den Laden wegen einem Asset nicht übers Wochenende offen.

Wenns am Sonntag abend wieder losgeht, entsteht auf dem Bitcoin-Chart meistens ein Gap, weil sich der Kurs ja in der Zwischenzeit bewegt hat.

Ich weiß auch nicht wieso, aber ich habs im Avatrade-Chart gecheckt und in 8 von 10 Fällen ist es tatsächlich so wie WU sagt dass sich die Lücke in 1-3 Tagen schließt.

Finds auch abgefahren, weil oft sind das OTC-Broker, die die Trades ihrer Kunden gar nicht an die Börsen weitergeben und somit hat das was dort gehandelt wird, keinen Einfluss auf den Kurs.

Deshalb ja auch meine Frage wie das denn markttechnisch zu erklären ist.

 

Den Gap kann man ja auf dem Chart sehen, den WU verlinkt hat.

Bearbeitet 7. Oktober 2014 von shambala

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Bitcoin’s volume-weighted price on the Bitstamp exchange fell 20% in September. Year-to-date, bitcoin is off 49%, although it is still three times higher than one year ago. Below we discuss Apple Pay versus Bitcoin as payment technologies, how bitcoin over-issuance affects its price, and our developing country venture thesis.
 

 

BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS

We wanted to share some of our thoughts on bitcoin’s price.

• In September, Bitcoin experienced the longest bear cycle in its history, but not the greatest price decline. The two previous bear cycles saw declines of 93% and 69% through the end of September. Decline was at 64% through the end of September. 
• As shown in the following chart, there has never been a bitcoin bull cycle with less than a 3.3x return. 

 

The next chart displays bitcoin’s price (gold line) and the 200-day moving average price (black dotted line) in log scale. The black dashed line shows where bitcoin would trade at its average deviation to the 200-day moving average and the red dotted line shows where it would trade at twice the average deviation.
 

 

Bitcoin has been under the 200-day moving average since March 27, 2014. In the past two years, bitcoin only breached the 200-day moving average on one day, July 7, 2013, at $75.

Since September 2012, Bitcoin has averaged trading 74% above the 200-day moving average, peaking at 685% on April 9, 2013. 
 

 

Bitcoin’s price is now 23% below the 200-day moving average. Historically, bitcoin has only spent only 4% of the time below this level. The average deviation is +74%. Bitcoin’s current year-over-year return is 3.3, less than its 8.5 average return and 96% below its all-time high YoY return.
 

 

In relation to the market value of all digital currencies, bitcoin has gained eight percentage points since March 2014 — around the time of MtGox’s collapse. Bitcoin’s current 96% share is the second highest since bitcoin’s price rose to over $1,000 in November 2013. Altcoins currently represent only a miniscule 4% of digital currency market capitalization.

APPLE PAY COULD ACCELERATE MERCHANT ACCEPTANCE OF BITCOINS

We believe that Apple Pay is likely to increase merchant and consumer acceptance of using smart phones to pay for purchases. Considering how low retail margins are today, the advantage of reduced transaction costs with Bitcoin suggests that Apple Pay is a distraction from the bigger picture.

On September 9th, Apple unveiled Apple Pay, proclaiming that it transformed mobile payment with an easy, secure, and private way to pay. Apple Pay works with the new iPhone 6, IPhone 6 Plus, and Apple Watch by using a near field communication (NFC) [1] antenna, a dedicated chip, and Touch ID (fingerprint identification). While not prominently featured at the unveiling, the dedicated chip enables tokenization, which replaces the actual credit or debit card number with a randomly-generated number. That number, or token, can be configured to expire after one purchase, making it a useless target for hackers or fraudsters.  

Apple Pay will eventually enable hundreds of million of users to simply add their credit or debit card from their iTunes Store account. Apple Pay currently supports credit and debit cards representing 83% of credit card purchase volume in the U.S. 

Nevertheless, it may take years for Apple Pay to have much of an impact: 

• The latest iPhones have not yet reached many consumers.
• The infrastructure isn’t ready. Retailers have to adopt new point-of-sale (POS) systems that are more secure by October 15, 2015, and it remains to be seen if these new checkout systems will accept Apple Pay.
• Shoppers are likely to be slow to change their payment habits.
• There are other technologies available with most of the benefits of Apple Pay. 

NFC payments are already in common use outside of the U.S. For example, EMV (EuroPay, MasterCard, Visa) technology has been used for more than a decade overseas, and is widely credited with significantly reducing POS credit card fraud. EMV uses an embedded “PIN” chip on the credit card to securely encrypt transactions. The only drawback to “chip and PIN” is that cards cost $15-20, versus $2 for existing cards, and merchants need to buy new $450 registers.

U.S. credit cards primarily use the card swipe system, where consumers swipe a magnetic strip through a register and then (in most cases) sign a form. This allows criminals who get their hands on credit card numbers to charge thousands of dollars before the cards are canceled. More sophisticated thieves can use information gained by internet hacking of skimming — secretly swiping a victim’s card on a card reader — to “clone” copies of their victims’ cards.

Since credit card systems rely on a complex ecosystem of players that rarely agree on how best to improve their industry, there has been minimal payment technology innovation for 50 years, while worries over security worsen and POS remains cumbersome. U.S. financial institutions are now forcing merchants to support EMV credit cards. All merchants must swap their current hardware for EMV-capable devices by October 15, 2015 or risk liability for fraudulent card activity and identity theft —  liabilities that card providers choose to no longer bear. 

In Europe, EMV is now being joined by NFC-based “Tap and Pay” for relatively low-value transactions, a technology that is closely related to Apple Pay. It is already built into the KitKat Android mobile operating system and has been endorsed by MasterCard and Visa. It allows payment card information to be stored in the cloud, letting mobile apps access the information without using the secure element hardware embedded in the phone. Currently 25% of large retailers and 5% of small retailers use the system. The ubiquity and simplicity of Tap and Pay, with no need for biometric scanning, suggest Apple Pay will have major challenges wherever Tap and Pay is available.

Silicon Valley is investing heavily in mobile payment technologies that innovate beyond the occasional upgrade enforced by credit card providers. The ultimate goal of mobile payments is to develop a digital wallet that holds the consumer’s entire array of payment information (e.g., credit card numbers, wallet addresses, etc.) to make POS effortless and secure. 

This is where Apple Pay comes in. Millions of merchants will be required to purchase and install new card reading hardware in the next year in order to comply with EMV standards. When these merchants acquire their new card readers, there’s a good chance they’ll opt for an all-NFC capable terminal. 

The iPhone 6 and 6 Plus use a secure element (SE) chip on its motherboard to store sensitive data cryptically. Apple Pay captures credit card information via the iPhone’s camera and uses tokens to protect credit card information as the data travels the various networks within the payment ecosystem. The iPhone 6 and 6 Plus are NFC-equipped, enabling them to securely broadcast these tokens to the millions of card reading devices soon to be deployed. 

Apple will reportedly charge the consumer’s bank 15 cents for every $100 spent using Apple Pay. Banks are willing to lose a cut of revenue if it means Apple Pay will become widely used. The return on investment for banks is greater transaction volume, which means higher revenue, and a reduction in fraud as a consequence of Apple Pay’s tighter security. In Europe, EMV has reportedly reduced POS credit card fraud by 80%.

Apple Pay’s announcement received mixed reactions from the Bitcoin community. Certainly Apple Pay is competitive. A prominent feature of some Bitcoin services is that using bitcoin as payment is easier and more secure than handling credit cards. Apple Pay is marketed as accomplishing the same. Furthermore, with Apple Pay consumers forgo the friction of learning about an admittedly complex technology. Upon further examination, however, we believe that Apple Pay may ease the way for Bitcoin:

1. Apple recently lifted its ban on iOS Bitcoin apps. 
2. Apple offers an application programming interface (API) for Apple Pay that will enable developers to use the involved hardware and payment systems. Despite Apple Pay's reliance on traditional financial infrastructure, bitcoin payments can be integrated through Apple's API, affording even better security and fraud protection for consumer payments. 
3. Bitcoin can now say, “Exactly like Apple Pay, but better.” (We can all take a marketing lesson from Tim Cook on how to sell complex technology to the un-tech savvy.) 

Tokenization is similar to what occurs on the Bitcoin blockchain — public key to public key transactions are essentially token transactions. We believe that the difference between Apple Pay tokens and Bitcoin will be indistinguishable to the uninitiated consumer. The introduction of the concept of tokenization alone is an important step toward rudimentary consumer understanding of Bitcoin, an understanding which is necessary for individual adoption. 

We believe Bitcoin is well positioned to enhance Apple Pay over the long run through its behind-the-scenes integration: 

• The Apple Pay user interface is a major plus, hiding the complexity of Bitcoin while still enabling the currency and protocol’s superior features. 
• Despite tokenization, Apple Pay is still built on top of the same old credit card payment networks and banking system, incurring the same problems and penalties as old-fashioned credit cards. We believe the open-source nature of Bitcoin gives it a major competitive edge as the best technology can be immediately integrated without the need to navigate often slow-moving corporate cultures. 
• Since Bitcoin operates on little to no fees, Apple's plan to layer another fee on top of an already expensive payment network is an advantage for Bitcoin. 
• We believe Bitcoin wins when it comes to which is a better global payment method. Apple Pay is likely to make almost no inroads overseas since iPhones and credit cards have very low penetration in less-developed countries (including China). At the outset, Apple Pay limited itself to U.S. and developed market use indefinitely. Bitcoin’s reach is global by its very nature. 

Finally, we believe Bitcoin, not Apple Pay, solves the two biggest problems merchants face when accepting credit card payments:

• Apple Pay adds another intermediary, while Bitcoin does away with the system entirely.
• Apple Pay does not reduce or eliminate chargebacks. With Bitcoin, chargebacks are virtually impossible.

BITCOIN ISSUANCE PACE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE

Short-term gaming plus increased bitcoin selling to pay for new mining hardware, electricity, etc. may be putting persistent, downward pressure on prices.

The developer (or developers) of the Bitcoin protocol designed it in such a way as to ensure a relatively stable bitcoin issuance schedule. The difficulty of solving blocks retargets every 2,016 blocks — or two weeks on average — should bitcoin issuance deviate from this schedule. For example, if bitcoins are being issued at a faster rate than the developers intended, block-solving difficulty (the time it takes to solve blocks) would increase at the next 2,016-block mark, resulting in bitcoin issuance returning to the planned schedule. 

As designed, the number of coins issued per block halved from 50 to 25 in November 2012, when the number of bitcoins issued reached 10.5 million. At a rate of one block every 10 minutes, current theoretical issuance is 3,600 coins a day. The next issuance halving is theoretically scheduled for the end of 2016, when the number of bitcoins issued reaches 15.75 million. 

Empirically, the actual issuance rate typically outpaces the intended rate. This should not be a problem, since the protocol retargets block solving difficulty should miners deviate from schedule. Still, since the last halving, 411,350 extra bitcoins have been issued relative to the 12,915,600 bitcoins the developer(s) expected as of 9/30/2014. Consequently, the next issuance halving is forecasted to happen 115 days ahead of schedule.
 

 

What accounts for the network being ahead of schedule despite the retargeting algorithm? The algorithm does not prevent miners from gaming the system between 2,016-block periods. 

Let's say there were 200 units of hashing power on the network at the end of a given 2,016-block period. The protocol would then take that 200 units of hashing power as the base network hashing power and set the appropriate difficulty for the next block to be solved. Meanwhile, a large-scale mining operation prepares to introduce new miners to the network which collectively yield 40 units of hashing power. The mining operation would wait for the difficulty retarget, then introduce its new miners. As a result, the network would issue bitcoins at a rate 20% higher than the rate the protocol anticipated via the difficulty retarget (240 units versus the 200 expected by the protocol).

With our example, bitcoin miners would earn 4,320 bitcoins a day versus the 3,600 expected and bitcoins would continue to be issued at a 20% higher rate until the next difficulty retarget 11.7 days later. 

A similar — but not as drastic — scenario is playing out. Since the last halving event, the average bitcoin price has been $337.30 and 411,350 coins have been issued ahead of schedule, equal to approximately $138 million.

Bitcoin mining is currently at the proverbial bleeding edge. Naturally, bitcoin issuance is paying for the development of increasingly sophisticated hardware (e.g., how miners have gone from CPUs to ASICs). Because “to the fastest go the spoils”, most hardware must be replaced every time a faster chip is made available. The cost of maintaining these kinds of leaps in hashrate is not sustainable without massive investments, investments that may be made by selling mined bitcoins for fiat currency.

LESS-DEVELOPED COUNTRIES MAY PROVIDE THE BIGGEST VENTURE CAPITAL OPPORTUNITY

Venture investments in Bitcoin have been predominantly in the United States, with increasing activity in Europe. Companies such as Circle [2], BitPay, and Xapo [3] have received significant venture capital funding. These companies give consumers access, security, and ways to use their bitcoins. Even though Bitcoin adoption has been growing rapidly, we believe the bigger opportunity for growth may be outside of the United States and Europe, where there are more pressing needs due to capital controls, inflationary policies, and inadequate financial services.  

In less-developed countries, Bitcoin may give people access to a potentially more stable form of currency. However, consumers need a vehicle to purchase and use bitcoins. While large global exchanges have the most liquidity, local exchanges are better suited to serve their own countries or regions. Trust is the highest priority for Bitcoin exchanges, especially after the collapse of MtGox. Local companies may have an easier time gaining trust because they share a language and culture with their users and can market in ways that build a reputable brand. Another advantage is relationships with local banks and regulators. Since the concept of Bitcoin is still foreign to many, local exchanges have partnered with Bitcoin ATM companies to provide a familiar, physical way for consumers to access bitcoins. Once consumers can easily access bitcoins, local exchanges can partner with e-commerce companies to provide lower fees, faster transactions, prevent fraud, eliminate chargebacks, etc. 

Bitcoin also provides a way for relatives in less-developed and underbanked countries to receive remittances. Remittances are estimated to total $436 billion in 2014, with India, China, Philippines, Mexico, and Nigeria the largest destinations. Remittances are currently executed through services such as Western Union, which charges 6-10% (including foreign exchange margin), PayPal (7%, but with 5-8 days to process), or SWIFT bank wire ($50 plus 4% foreign exchange margin). With Bitcoin, fees would be lower. 

Just as important, recipients do not need bank accounts. Currently, at least one Bitcoin company is using SMS-based wallets for remittances. Since most people in less-developed countries use feature phones (think clamshell Nokias, not smartphones), SMS provides an ideal communication and payment channel. Senders can easily deposit bitcoins in their wallets, type short text commands, and send bitcoins to any phone number. The receiver will have an SMS wallet automatically created for them and then be able to claim their remittance. 

Other bitcoin remittance companies use a digital currency exchange. Senders of remittances can purchase bitcoins from an exchange. Exchanges will accept this digital currency and, in return, offer recipients fiat currencies. These fiat currencies can be stored in a mobile money wallet such as M-Pesa, Orange, Airtel, or Yu. 

NEW WHITE PAPER

A new white paper has been added to our website, Currency Debasement. Beginning with the history of currency debasement, the paper discusses why the U.S. dollar does not have intrinsic value. It concludes that anything other than paper money would have been a better investment over the years. Read more…
 

Bearbeitet 7. Oktober 2014 von segeln

[walberg]

sehr interessanter Artikel.Der bestätigt die Holder und Nachläufer  (-:

[segeln]

@shambala

für die Broker gibt es einen gap,das ist richtig.

Nur eben für bitcoin an sich nicht

[Wochen-Umfrage]

die ganze welt  sperrt am freitag abend zu ...... Indices Rohstoffe schon früher zum teil und zum schluss die Devisen .....

 

ausser BTC und da das Zeug am WE keinen Profi interessiert  weil man auch mal chillen geht    ist der handel danach nur noch in der Hand der doffen ahungslosen Hoppytrader die dann von den Profis überfahen werden

 

die Broker gehen auch Heim am Freitag  und daher gibst das Gapp überrinsg das thema  Gap hab  i schon ..10 mal nein 20 mal ... na gut

[shambala]

Die Hobbytrader vom letzten Sonntag hatten aber ein ganz schönes Volumen.

Heißt das also die Profis handeln nach dem Broker-Chart?

Bearbeitet 7. Oktober 2014 von shambala