Bitcoin-Chartanalyse

[everthelast]

ahahhaha köstlich ...   bist Hellseher !  oder einfach nur gelogen  .... ums direkt zu sagen

 

er sieht dich nicht du blitzgneisser!

[segeln]

Bitcoin Price Gearing Up for a Return to $400 and Beyond

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-gearing-up-return-400/

 

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 12h00

Messy Correction

Yesterday it was pointed out that a preferred reversal level for the correction would have been $387. Turning at that level would have maintained some of the upward momentum of the advance to date. However, in targetting $370 in a messy correction, the market has foregone the upward price momentum, as well as, losing ground above the 20MA and 200MA in the 4-hour and hourly timeframes.

Bitstamp Hourly Chart

Although a waste of time and momentum, the correction from $417 to $370 is understandable. Many participants are still nervously expecting a bear to jump out the woods, and solid confirmation of a trend change has not yet been printed in the technicals of the price chart.

$400 Psych Level

$400 will most likely now be a stronger psych level and present more formidable resistance. Of course, it can be beat in one punching move to the upside but there are a lot of knocking knees out there and nervous traders will want to exit longs until they’re sure that they’re sure about the upside. Failing a surge above $400, it would be reasonable to expect a consolidation just below $400.

Extreme Reverse Divergence

Regarding additional downside, notice the extent of reverse divergence in the hourly Bitstamp chart. The reverse divergence between price and both RSI and MACD is shown in solid blue lines. According to the hourly chart RSI, price should now be at a lower level than the decline low of $275 – but it isn’t – so any additional RSI low can only reasonably occur on a flash crash below $275. An additional price low is possible, but it will immediately cause RSI divergence and force an uptrend.

The 4-hour chart is reverse diverged in a similar way – as is the weekly RSI and MACD. The daily chart has room for advance, so this is where the path of least resistance lies.

 

 

Summary

The larger trend remains up, but a sideways consolidation is likely before advance can proceed. $400 is an immediate target but may resist advance and force price sideways for a few days. If price surges above $400 without being pulled back below it, then expect strong advance.

For the reasons discussed above, additional downside is unlikely. However, if the bears try it, they are limited to one more wave of decline to $360.

[Wochen-Umfrage]

er sieht dich nicht du blitzgneisser!

 

und wieso wusste er den Inhalt meines Postings ....

 

selber Blitzgneisser du nix überreissen  ahahhaha

[segeln]

Bitcoin Price Fall to $350?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article47793.html

 

Yesterday, we wrote:

The volume is still relatively significant and today's close might turn out to be even more important than yesterday's. If Bitcoin stays below $400 or depreciates further, we might be in for a move down.

In our opinion, Bitcoin still might have room for appreciation but the developments of the last two days have made the outlook more bearish

 

.

Bitcoin stayed below $400 yesterday and, in fact, today we've seen a move down (this is written before 10:00 a.m. ET). There has been an important change compared with the previous couple of days, though. Namely, the volume is visibly lower. At the moment of writing, not even 25% of yesterday's volume has been reached. Based on that alone, today's move doesn't have very important bearish implications.

It has been a rather weak move down on relatively low volume which doesn't add a significant bearish tinge to the market conditions. But does this development have any other possible outcomes?

It is possible that today, with not much bitcoins traded, marks the end of the pause in a more significant rebound - the one that started in the first week of October. But this is not what we're betting on just now. If Bitcoin stays below $400, even without a significant move down, we might still see more depreciation. A move to $350 or slightly lower is a possibility but not one which would make us suggest shorts at this time.

On the long-term BTC-e chart, we see a possible beginning of a move lower, which could end around $350. Yesterday, we expressed the following views:

There's been a moderate reversal and the volume is similar to what we saw yesterday. Overall, today doesn't look too inspiring as far as long positions are concerned.

If we see more action below $400, even not necessarily a strong move down, just stagnation below this level, Bitcoin might be opened up for a more significant slide. If this is not the case, we will stick with the appreciation scenario since the currency might still recover some ground following the last two plunges (think Sept.-Oct.), possibly to $500.

If there's a strong move above $400, we might reenter longs. At present, a buy limit order looks like the best way to go with an entry price at $427, a stop-loss at $357 and an initial target at $500.

This is still up to date and today very much looks like a possible first day of stagnation. It's too early to assess whether this is really the case but it seems to us that we might see more weakness in the days to come, perhaps preceded by not much action.

If Bitcoin comes back and goes above $400 the situation will be decidedly bullish and it might even start a sizeable rally. A move below $350, however, could be an indication of more pain to come.

At this time it seems best to stay out and see if the currency rebounds off $350. We still favor an appreciation scenario with Bitcoin coming back with a vengeance but the situation is not favorable for long positions just now.

Summing up, we don't support any speculative positions in the market.

Trading position (short-term, our opinion): no current positions; a buy limit order, entry at $427, stop-loss at $357, initial target at $500.

[segeln]

Bitcoin Analysis: Week of Oct 19 (Intro to MACD) 

http://cointelegraph.com/news/112760/bitcoin-analysis-week-of-oct-19-intro-to-macd

 

Last Week’s Review

In last week’s post we concluded with the following statement:

“Our overall stance is now Long-Term Neutral (still have the issue of not enough new users), Intermediate-Term very slightly Bearish with lots of good signs, and Short-Term Bullish. The ideal situation is for a short decline over the next few days to establish a higher low at US$340 support and then a rebound to test recent highs at US$400. Breaking those highs and establishing a new one would be the perfect scenario for a technical reversal.”

There was more in the conclusion, but when the primary case describes the expected week pretty well, there is no need to copy all of it and is left for the reader to go back and review. The pull back down to US$340 to establish a new higher low did not take place, but a new high at US$400 resistance did.  After some consolidation a newer high was made at US$415, which warranted the following tweet:

The pull back from US$415 did not fall to the desired US$365 level but US$370 is more than close enough.  Ideally, a more visible higher low would be nice to see but as most know Bitcoin can take some unpredictable and crazy turns so anything even resembling a traditional Fiat trading pattern is more than welcome.

So what does this all mean, well it pretty much implies that we have a nice healthy uptrend and after being Bearish and sad most of the summer, the near turn future is starting to look pretty bright for those sitting on bitcoins and frustrating for those that missed out on picking up some last year and were expecting to see a price of US$100 this year to get in so they could be the smartest ones in the room.

The Long-Term View is starting to look very promising. One minor worry is the formation of a candle known as the shooting start but that alone is not an indication that the bullish run we have been on for two weeks is over. Much more will need to develop.

We can now start thinking about upper end targets, the first significant of which is the break above the PayPal news hype at US$450. It is still too early to say if the low for the year is in, but it is looking promising at the moment.

Education (Indicators pt. I - MACD)

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (aka MACD) is a very common indicator followed by Technical Traders as it helps identify areas of price momentum swings.

There are plenty of on-line resources that will teach you more, but a good one can be found in Chart School on StockCharts.com. To explain it in laymen’s terms for a non-trader, an assumption is made that you are already familiar with Moving Averages.  But even if you are not, looking at the MACD indicator on a price chart does provide an interesting view of what happens in price movement above it.

One way this MACD is used to trade is to enter positions based on the days where the Blue line crosses the Red. It indicates a change in momentum & trend and is considered a signal to pull the trigger.

One other way the MACD is used by traders is to help spot Divergences also described in detail in the Chart School link above. Here is a visual example of a divergence.

In these situations where the price makes a higher high but the MACD makes a lower high, there is a higher probability that the price will take a larger hit down then it did the previous time it made a high.  Similar cases occur in reverse as prices make lower lows but the MACD makes a higher low, it tends to lead to a larger rebound than the previous rebound.

Fundamentals & News

The time during the late summer when this section would typically say “not much news this week” is starting to be sorely missed as the fall is bringing about more news events than a person can keep up with and still maintain a life outside of all Bitcoin, all the time.  Once again the following re-caps are plugged because this analyst actually reads them:

• CoinTelegraph Weekly Roundup by Armand Tanzarian
• Bitcoin News Roundup by Bitsmith on TheCoinsman
• Weekly News Round Up by Brave New Coin

It’s hard to pick out what was the most important event. It feels like it was the Moolah/MintPal implosion that put the Doge creator Jackson Palmer in the spotlight by exposing the scam artist known as Alex Green. Now there was much discussion all over the space including Reddit where the question on whether this is good for Bitcoin was posed.

The correct answer is: This is irrelevant for Bitcoin and the price action proves it.

It is always frustrating to research news on a company as you hear of them after they have imploded and then find out they managed to raise US$500,000 from the Bitcoin reddit community, ohhh my! I’m assuming it’s the same people that will now be screaming for regulation to high heavens.

Once again this his to be re-iterated. Anyone who is in possession of bitcoins and CHOOSES to hand them over to an exchange has to understand that there is a possibility of them being lost or stolen. It really is that simple, for the first time in computer history you are able to hold something electronically that no one else can take from you, but too many simply insist on just handing it over.

Only trade with the amounts you are willing to lose.

Ok, so now that we got none AML/KYC compliant exchanges out of the way, let’s talk about the darlings that are in the fore-front of regulation. These are the ones with proper AML/KYC and this rosy bunch, depending on who you ask, can be even worse.

As fun as it is to give up your ID and picture and finger prints and potentially a DNA or blood sample tomorrow at a Bitcoin ATM machine, clearly people have agreed this is what a free society should be. It’s fully understandable that it’s easy to just connect your bank account to buy bitcoins or use a credit card, but for Bitcoin to become what it was meant to be and change the system, people views on government control of money must also change.

Either it will end up being meaningless and just a neat payment system or a lot of those same people so willing to give up their info will not be so happy when the IRS or other thugs with guns come knocking on their door.

So what does all that have to do with analyzing the price of Bitcoin? Quite a lot actually. Just look at the recent statements by the CEO of JP Morgan:

“Bitcoin developers are going to try and eat our lunch, and that’s fine. That’s called competition, and we’ll be competing”

The last time a bank like JP Morgan Chase even had a whiff of ‘competition’ the actual JP Morgan was still alive and we were in the 19th Century prior to the creation of the Federal Reserve. Everyone holding their bitcoins has to think about the consequences of how to use them and more importantly how to acquire them and where to store them. The end result of this condescending statement is positive for BTC Price.

Speaking of separating Bitcoin holders from their wealth, we have more 2.0 offerings… the winner this week is the circus that is Bitnation. The creator of the project does not seem to have any issues with at least half the team quitting before the crowdsale. As interesting as the project sounds, the world is not even ready for Bitcoin yet and some actually believe this will work. Again, as a price analyst, it looks like people might actually wise up and be more selective who they hand over their bitcoins too… end result, positive for BTC Price

And finally, we have the now world famous NYDFS unelected bureaucrat dropping some of the extra crazy demands in the legislation just to make everybody feel better.  Once again this can be both positive and negative for the price. Will institutions embrace it and will Wall Street money pile in? Or are they creating an environment by which there will never be global mechanisms of financial freedom because it has to abide by NY laws.

The News and Fundamentals are complex. Things are never what they seem.

“If the US Government would just come out and criminalize Bitcoin holders, we can all watch the price soar past $10,000 per coin”

                          

-- Tone Vays

Daily Overview

Here is our 1-year Daily chart still referencing Fibonacci Retracements and a few Trend Lines broken back in July:

This ‘intermediate’ term time frame is now officially bullish; we have seen a higher high and higher low. There is no reason to expect any significant downside as long as the recent lows at US$370 are not broken to the downside. 

Another thing that was not mentioned in the section above was the potential influence of the recent 10% fall in the US Stock Market. Remember, legacy fiat system instability is very positive for Bitcoin as long as it remains outside of legacy fiat system integration. A crash in the Stock Market will have people thinking about diversification and at the moment even with all the negatives surrounding the Bitcoin Ecosystem, it is still a safer store of wealth if properly handled.

The Short-Term Chart, which is just the zoomed in version of the one above, looks very clean. We are establishing higher highs, which is bullish and even though it would be nicer to see more defined lows we will take what we can get.  The trend has clearly changed even if just temporary and a new high is to be expected from a probability perspective. The US$400 line is still a tough cookie and we still need to deal with the 50 day Moving average (blue), but right now let’s see if US$440 can be reached over the next week or two.

Conclusion

Our overall stance is now Long-Term Slightly Bullish, Intermediate-Term can now be considered Bullish, and Short-Term is also Bullish.

Regular readers will recall how a few weeks before the big drop to the US$200’s, it was stated in this series how this was the scariest charts have looked in a long time, well now we have the complete opposite. Sitting right here on the verge of breaking back above US$400 is the best charts have looked in months.

Nothing is ever guaranteed, but the ideal situation right now is to break above the US$400 resistance and make new highs in the US$440-450 range to match the PayPal news hype. Then a pull back establishing a real visual low back at this US$400 zone as it becomes support. 

Since nothing is ever perfect, here are additional two cases to keep a close eye on listed in order of importance:

Bearish: Because our main view is currently very Bullish and looking for new highs, our primary concern has to be what will keep us up at night. The low at US$370 was not deep enough to really bring in buyers like the lows a week earlier did at US$275. Some more downside to re-test this low or even drop as low as US$340 followed by swift buying is perfectly reasonable.

Bullish: Once the price breaks past US$400 and makes new highs, buyers should step in out of fear of missing out the next big rally - watch resistance points at $420 (last week’s high and Moving Average), $440-450 (major resistance), and $500 (physiological number and a Fibonacci line).

Reference Point:  Monday 12:30 am ET, Bitstamp Price US$380

[segeln]

Bitcoin Trading- BTC/USD Technical Analysis, Oct 19: $390 putting up stiff resistance

http://dcmagnates.com/bitcoin-trading-btcusd-technical-analysis-oct-19-390-putting-up-stiff-resistance/

Bitcoin (BTC) is having a tough time climbing back over the $390 mark on BTC-e, suggesting a possible bias to the downside in near-term trading.

BTC is currently trading at $384 on BTC-e. During the past 4 days, it has consolidated tightly about the $370 mark as the market seeks clues as to the next big move. BTC had roared back to over $400 following a horrific sell-off seeing it set new 2014 lows below $300.

With the 200-day moving average (MA) still slow to keep up with recent losses and holding fairly steady near $505, BTC is trading at 23% discount.

A look at the long-term chart shows that for the mid-term, BTC may have indeed run out of momentum to the upside. The pattern of successively lower peaks and lows remains intact with no critical point of reversal, and one notes the absence of any resistance between current levels and $200.

As markets have calmed down from the sell-off two weeks ago and relative equilibrium has been restored, the old Bitstamp/BTC-e spreads have returned. BTC-e is trading at a $7 (1.8%) discount relative to Bitstamp and several Peers.

[Majo]

Sorry, aber wieso wird hier immer auf Englisch geschrieben?

[segeln]

Sorry, aber wieso wird hier immer auf Englisch geschrieben?

Weil es fast keine deutsche Chartanalysen gibt.

Und zum Übersetzen habe ich keine Zeit, auch wenn mustermäxchen den" like this button" gedrückt hat    

[AdrianMonk]

Google Translate (reicht zum verstehen) :

 

Bitcoin Trading-BTC / USD Technische Analyse, Okt 19: $ 390 Aufstellen von harten Widerstand 

http: //dcmagnates.co...iff-resistance/ 

Bitcoin (BTC) wird eine harte Zeit klettern über die 390 $ Marke auf BTC-e zurück, was auf eine mögliche Verzerrung nach unten in die kurzfristigen Trading. 

BTC notiert aktuell bei 384 $ auf BTC-e. In den letzten 4 Tagen es eng um den $ 370 Marke konsolidiert, da der Markt sucht Hinweise auf den nächsten großen Schritt. BTC hatte nach einer schrecklichen Ausverkauf sehen, es setzen neue Tiefs unter 2.014 $ 300 zurück, um über $ 400 brüllte. 

Mit der 200-Tage-Durchschnitt (MA) noch langsam, um mit jüngsten Verluste zu halten und hält relativ stabil nahe $ 505 wird BTC mit 23% Abschlag gehandelt. 

Ein Blick auf die langfristige Chart zeigt, dass für die Halbzeit, BTC kann in der Tat von Schwung nach oben laufen. Das Muster der immer niedrigeren Gipfeln und Tiefen bleibt intakt ohne kritischen Umkehrpunkt, und man stellt fest, das Fehlen jeglicher Widerstand zwischen dem derzeitigen Niveau und 200 $.

[Eddi]

 

Google Translate (reicht zum verstehen) :

 

... neue Tiefs unter 2.014 $ 300 zurück, um über $ 400 brüllte. 

 

[segeln]

@Eddi

+1

rofl

[azu393]

@Eddi

eines der geilsten smilys die ich hier bisher gesehen habe...

 

oh man...

[Eddi]

@Eddi

eines der geilsten smilys die ich hier bisher gesehen habe...

 

oh man...

 

[Wochen-Umfrage]

ich übersetzte mal

 

".........es geht hoch und wenne s nicht hoch geht dann runter ..doch ich nehme an es geht hoch......"

 

 

weil die meisten Bullen sind und nicht shorten /lehrverkaufen können ...

[AdrianMonk]

Alternative wäre Englisch lernen ....

[blubblibla]

Alternative wäre Englisch lernen ....

 

Es gibt halt genug ältere Mitbürger in Deutschland, die aus der politischen Vergangenheit Deutschlands heraus in der Schule Russisch anstatt Englisch gelernt haben. Und die tun sich heutzutage schwer. Ich hab Verständniss für diese Leute.

[AdrianMonk]

Es gibt halt genug ältere Mitbürger in Deutschland, die aus der politischen Vergangenheit Deutschlands heraus in der Schule Russisch anstatt Englisch gelernt haben. Und die tun sich heutzutage schwer. Ich hab Verständniss für diese Leute.

 

Ja, dann eben Google Translate nutzen (mach ich auch), aber da werden Witze drüber gemacht. Was denn jetzt ?

[blubblibla]

Ja, dann eben Google Translate nutzen (mach ich auch), aber da werden Witze drüber gemacht. Was denn jetzt ?

Google Translate ist ganz brauchbar, aber es kommt noch zu oft vor, daß da eben kompletter Unsinn rauskommt. Aus meiner Sicht nur eine besser als nichts Lösung.

 

Das geilste was ich bisher hatte, war PoW. Ich musste echt kurz überlegen, was jetzt Proof of Work mit Kriegsgefangenen zu tun hat. Vor allem weil der Begriff 3x in dem Text vorkam und nur 1 mal falsch übersetzt wurde. Also, sich über Google Translate lustig machen is ganz normal.

[maxmuster]

Es gibt halt genug ältere Mitbürger in Deutschland, die aus der politischen Vergangenheit Deutschlands heraus in der Schule Russisch anstatt Englisch gelernt haben. Und die tun sich heutzutage schwer. Ich hab Verständniss für diese Leute.

Danke.

[blubblibla]

Danke.

 Da gibt's nix zu danken, sowas sollte selbstverständlich sein.

 

Und nach diesem Exkurs zu den Sprachkenntnissen, zurück zur Chartanalyse, sonst fängt segeln noch an zu weinen...

[segeln]

Nachdem ich meine (Lach-) Tränen getrocknet habe geht es weiter mit TA

 

 

 

Bitcoin Price Collusion Powerless Against Uptrend, Adoption To Surge During Coming Market Turmoil

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-collusion-powerless-uptrend-adoption-surge-coming-market-turmoil/

 

Bitcoin Price Collusion

Time of analysis: 06h30 UTC

Asian Session

As Asia trade began, toward the end of the US trading day, the Bearish Buccaneers were at it again. Their signature attack strategy goes like this: hundreds of small sustained (and identical) market orders bend trade to the downside and then a volley of heavy artillery (100+ BTC market orders) intended to ignite a sell-off.

BitFinex Depth Chart and Market Orders – end of US trading day 20 October

It’s not clear if this is a new cartel or the same group that had ridden the market bareback all the way from $680 down to $275. The previous signature is, by now, lost in the bitbin of cyberspace, but the tactic remains the same: wait for a retrace and when it hits 1.618, start machinegun fire… as soon as price and its moving averages form a confluence, push price action under the 20MA with a series of co-ordinated large market orders. Naturally, the sellers pile in. Take a profit, rinse and repeat.

The strategy and the tactic is sound as long as a downtrend is in force, but when the market’s mood toward Bitcoin has changed to positive then the strategy, now in opposition to underlying wave dynamics, becomes a recipe for loss.

BitFinex Hourly Chart

The magenta arrow shows the time and effect of the Bitcoin Buccaneers’ attack documented in the screenshot above. It can be seen how the market responds by buying into the new lows – instead of (as had been the case previously) taking the bait and joining the sell-off.

There are several explanations for the coordinated sell-offs that have now become a daily phenomenon. Perhaps the group is applying its old strategy in the hope of precipitating another sell-off. Without market support, they are clearly wasting ammunition. Perhaps this is the exchanges (and their institutional friends) who are trying to generate momentum by pushing price down to higher lows in the hope that the market will take the hint, buy in and begin a stampede above $400. Readers are welcome to shed additional light or air opinions in the comments section below.

Time of analysis: 08h00 UTC

European Session

Bitstamp Hourly Chart

 

 

Summary

Sideways consolidation continues between $368 and $400. $368 is the level of the daily 20-period moving average. Price going below $368 will be a warning that the bears have plans. With coordinated support from a bearish cartel price can be forced below $368 – however, notice in the inset chart on the right (Bitstamp daily chart at the start of the rally 2013) how even a dunk below the daily 20MA reverses straight into strong upside price action.

Analysis warns that the downside is limited. Joining a sell-off – especially short-selling – is fraught with risk because buying demand may surge price up from any level and at any moment. Have buy orders ready down below but don’t sell a bitcoin for less than $590 before December.

Bearbeitet 21. Oktober 2014 von segeln

[segeln]

Bitcoin Rangebound,

https://blog.fxopen.com/bitcoin-rangebound-peercoin-pushing-on-0-97/

After a highly volatile month that saw BTC prices first fall 30 percent to a low of $285, only to later rally a similar percentage to $408, bitcoin may be finally taking a breather. Since our last update, prices broke below the $381 support mentioned in our article and fell all the way down to $362.77. But from here bitcoin recovered most of the losses (again) and is currently trading at $376 per coin.

For the past five days, BTC prices have traded is a smaller range between $362 and $388. Keep in mind that both of these price extremes are still untested so they shouldn’t be treated as breakout points yet.

 

Support and Resistance Levels

Let’s take a look at some potential levels of support and resistance. On the lower end, the first potential weak support stands at the most recent swing low at $362. Below this, the $343-$350 area should support falling prices. A breakdown below may quickly lead to a retest of the psychologically important figure at $300. Lower still, the October 5th swing low at $285 is another level to keep an eye on. The important levels on the downside end with $266. The $266 mark was bitcoin’s high during most of 2013 and will be a crucial milestone on the way down. A break below $266 may trigger a period of prolonged losses for BTC.

On the top end, the first resistance level can be found at $388. But keep in mind that this figure is still untested and thus likely weak resistance. Further up, the post-PayPal high near $450 ($446) should provide some resistance. If this figure is broken, bitcoin could quickly rally toward the $500 round figure.

[Wochen-Umfrage]

Es gibt halt genug ältere Mitbürger in Deutschland, die aus der politischen Vergangenheit Deutschlands heraus in der Schule Russisch anstatt Englisch gelernt haben. Und die tun sich heutzutage schwer. Ich hab Verständniss für diese Leute.

 

 

so is und dann gibts welche die gar nicht in Europa gebohren wurden und Deusch die 3 oder 4 Sprache ist ........  über die macht man sich besonders gern lustig, zum fremdschämen !

[segeln]

Bitcoin Price Correction – Advance on Hold

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-correction-advance-hold/

Bitcoin Price Correction

Time of analysis: 13h30 UTC

US Session

Advance is on hold while price descends lower in wave 2.

Yesterday’s analysis warned:

Trade defensively in the next few days until price has taken a clear direction after Friday’s New Moon.

If a decline into

wave 2

becomes evident, we’ll determine buy targets in due course. It is recommended that traders avoid shorting a decline – its lower target is unknown, and reversal is guaranteed to be swift.

The Bitcoin price looks set to close below our bellwether; the daily chart 20-period moving average.

Bitstamp Daily Chart

Unless a swift reversal takes price back above $368 and then $400, we can only assume that wave 2 will target one of the Fibonacci retracement levels at 50%, 61.8% or 89% of the entire advance of the past three weeks from $275. The following Bitstamp hourly chart shows the Fibonacci retracement levels on the righthand side. The 50% (.5) retracement is at $346 and the 61.8% (.618) retracement level is at $330.

Bitstamp Hourly Chart

Yesterday, before price broke out below the consolidation triangle, the correction had been labeled a-b-c-d-e. A new wave count is annotated and shows price action in wave 3 of wave C. We’ll refine that as more of the wave structure becomes apparent.

The final wave in the expected sequence, wave 5, is shown to terminate at $330 although it may equally well extend all the way to the .89 Fib retracement level at $290. We cannot know at this stage whether wave 5 will end nearer $330 or $290, but a sensible trade strategy is outlined below.

Trading The End of Wave 2

The same advice given during the past week applies: It is recommended that traders do not short trade this decline. Doing so is risky because the decline’s lower target is unknown and, once terminated, reversal could be swift.

One trading strategy is to systematically buy into wave 2 as it approaches its potential reversal levels at $346 (50% retracement), $330 (62%), etc. down to $290. A stop-loss placed at $275 would then close the position at a loss should price continue declining to $260 or $205 to make a new decline low. However, this strategy is wasteful and resembles stepping in front of an approaching bus.

A more sensible strategy and the one with the highest probability and lowest risk is to wait patiently for wave 2 to complete. Once price action reverses and starts heading up in those first few long green candles, the urge to buy into the apparent advance will be strong, but don’t pull the trigger just yet. Wait longer still. The risk remains that what appears to be a reversal at the end of wave 2 (at say, $330) is not the end of wave 2 at all.

Once price action has drawn some long green candles and makes a correction without making a new low – this is the time to buy into the advance. Place a stop-loss just below the reversal level where the advance started from.

If price does turn down again to make lower lows, your loss is minimal, and the process can be tried again at 62% retracement and again at 89%. If reversal occurs at one of these points, you will have gotten in near the beginning of wave 3 which is characterized by swift advance and great distance.

The mechanics of the technique will be illustrated in tomorrow’s article.

 

Summary

Wave 2 is drawing the Bitcoin price into a deeper correction than was initially expected. Prepare to buy in lower at $346, $330 or even $290, but don’t short-sell the market here since the reversal level is not certain.

Price may eventually print a new decline low, but we’ll deal with that scenario once the wave down declines below $275.

Once wave 2 reverses, the advance in wave 3 can be expected to commence with great vigor. For now, we observe and wait for a reversal above $275.

[segeln]

BTC/USD Broke Below its Support Zone

http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2014/10/BTCUSD-Broke-Below-its-Support-Zone-October-20-2014/36214

20 October, 2014 GMT

 

 

By: YesOption

News emerged over the weekend that Bitcoin exchanges would now allow trading in other currencies, which would help in provide it with higher liquidity and more credibility, while providing entry for a new slew of traders. Furthermore, it would allow many traders and investors to trade Bitcoin in different currencies, opening up the market to a slew of new investors. This development is obviously being seen as a positive for the crypto-currency going forward.

BTC/USD broke below its support zone of $386 in the Asian morning session and it still hasn’t broken above the psychological resistance zone of $400. The next level of support for the BTC/USD is at around $360, with its momentum indicator indicating sell. Traders with long positions should therefore maintain a strict stop loss going forward, as the stochastic oscillator for the BTC/USD has additionally given a sell signal.

Actionable Insight:

Short the BTC/USD if it moves below $360 with an intermediate target at $320 with a strict stop loss above $375

Long the BTC/USD if it moves above $400 for an intermediate target at $447 with a stop loss below $386.