Bitcoin-Chartanalyse

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Bitcoin Trading- BTC/USD Technical Analysis, Oct 23: BTC breaks $360 to new 10-day low

 

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has just broken through $361 to $358 on BTC-e, setting a new 10-day low and suggesting a possible return into the low $300’s during the next 2-4 weeks.

BTC has declined by over 5% during the past 12h, a relatively large move during what has become a fairly quiet 2 weeks of trading. Since peaking at $408 ten days ago, it is off over 10%. One can’t help but notice the “half moon” pattern over which BTC appears to have commenced on its way down.

If further declines are indeed in the works, the pattern dictates that they will be of a slower space, if/until the bottom is reached.

BTC’s chronic inability to climb above the $390 mark during the past weeks was an early indicator of future declines, as assessed. If it returns to the $340-$350 range, it will be interesting to see how it is navigated. The range had formed a solid support platform prior to the rise to above $400.

BTC is now nearly 29% off its 200-day moving average, the widening gap indicating an above average pace of decline.

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Bitcoin Price Dive Only Snorkeling

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-dive-only-snorkeling/

 

Bitcoin Price Dive

Time of analysis: 06h00 UTC

Asian Session

The Bitcoin price has hit the .50 Fibonacci retracement level across exchange charts.

Bitstamp Hourly Chart

The latest move down in wave e of wave 2 can complete at .5, .618 or the .89 retracement levels. Once the end of wave 2 is struck decisively, price will reverse strongly to the upside and commence advance in wave 3 which will see price move above $400 and eventually $500.

The first target for advance will be the $368 price which will now resist advance. Beyond that price will try to climb above the red 200-period moving average at $382.

 

 

Summary

Potential targets below are $330, $300 and $290. There is no telling where the last corrective wave will end, so it is recommended that buyers wait for price to reverse to the upside and then buy BTC as price establishes above the successive way-points listed below.

Alternatively, apportion your capital so as to allow buying batches at the targets mentioned above.

Once price reverses to the upside, the way-points for advance are $368, $382 and then $400.

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Bitcoin returns to the channel – Analysis - 24/10/2014

http://www.economies.com/forex/btc-usd-analysis/bitcoin-returns-to-the-channel-%E2%80%93-analysis---24-10-2014-14012

 

2014-10-24 04:57:57 GMT (Economies.com)

 

 

 

inShare

 

 

Bitcoin price pushed negatively yesterday to trade below the bearish channel’s resistance again, affected by the rising wedge pattern that was completing after breaking its support as appears on image, which puts the price under negative pressure that might push it to target areas that begin at 300.00 and extend to 250.00.

 

Therefore, the intraday expectations will turn to the downside, supported by the EMA50, unless the price managed to breach 365.00 followed by 377.70 and hold above them.

 

Expected trading range for today is between: 250.00 and 400.00

 

Expected trend for today: Bearish

Bearbeitet 26. Oktober 2014 von segeln

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Bitcoin’s Fight With $350 Continues

http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2014/10/25/bitcoins-fight-350-continues/

By Petar Kotevski on Oct 25, 2014 07:37:08 GMT

 

•  
•  
• Bitcoin is continuing the fight with the $345-$350 support area. Earlier in the day it looked like the bears had won, after breaking past $345 prices quickly fell to a daily low of $337. But in the next 2 hours BTC/USD climbed back above $340 and few hours later prices were again flirting with the $350 figure. Here’s an updated chart. -

We are now in somewhat of a stalemate with prices wedged in between two support/resistance areas. A move below today’s low at $337 will likely accelerate bitcoin’s losses. On the other hand. if BTC manages to climb and stay above the $362 resistance level (marked in the chart above), it will likely signal an end to BTC losses, at least in the short-term. To spark a new rally in the cryptocurrency however, BTC/USD will first need to take out the October 14th swing high at $408.

Let’s look at some of the support levels if bitcoin breaks $337 and continues the move lower, since this is the more likely scenario. The first potential support can be found at the $300 round figure. This is quickly followed by the October 5th swing low at $285. Lower still, the $266 figure, a high for bitcoin during most of 2013, will be strong support to falling prices.

The latest leg down in BTC/USD can not be pinned to one unexpected negative news event, unlike the two falls earlier this year with the MtGox fiasco and later with the China Ban.  Several theories have been floating around about the reason behind the price declines, ranging from bitcoin mining to increased merchant adoption with a corresponding increase in consumer interest to pay with BTC. But the biggest factor may be increased scrutiny by regulators, especially in the States. The start of the latest fall in BTC prices started around mid-July, soon after the New York Department of Financial Services proposed a new regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. While the initial reaction to the NYDFS proposal was a market rally, the move up soon fizzled out and in the next few days BTC/USD started a downmove that would see it lose over 50% of its value in the next 3 months.

- See more at: http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2014/10/25/bitcoins-fight-350-continues/#sthash.zsIHQ6aU.dpuf

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Bitcoin Price Decline Stopped, Possibly Temporarily

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article47896.html

let's turn to the charts.

On BitStamp, we saw a pretty sizeable move down yesterday and on highly elevated volume. The same day we wrote:

Bitcoin has plunged 4.8% from yesterday's close, to only slightly above $360. Not surprisingly, this has been on elevated volume, but not necessarily on volume that would suggest a very significant slump.

One way or another, we've seen possible first signs of deterioration. It's still too early to tell whether this is a one-day thing, but our bet here would be that it's not. If you take a look at the third cited paragraph, you'll see that yesterday we expected a move to $350 or lower. This is still the case - we tend to think that the current slide is a first one in a series of less-pronounced slides, either to happen in quick succession or to be more distributed in time.

Based on this, it seems that it might be a good idea to ride on the current wave down if it gets more momentum and then prepare to reposition oneself for possible appreciation.

 

 

After the publication of that alert, the volume went further up making the decline more significant in our eyes. In this sense, our yesterday's comments remain up to date.

The action today has been up and down with Bitcoin going as low as $345 at one point before recovering to above $360 (this is written before 11:00 a.m. ET). The volume today is significant, perhaps not matching what we saw yesterday but still relevant (the day is not over, so there's still room for an uptick).

Right now two scenarios seem worth noting to us. In the first Bitcoin lingers around $350 for some time without significant trading volumes and afterwards starts a strong rally. This is what we saw in April-May this year. The second scenario would see Bitcoin go down to around $300, possibly after a period of wavering. This is a tricky situation since we might actually see more depreciation now before a move up but we outline the suggested positions later in the alert.

On the long-term BTC-e chart, we see that the depreciation has taken Bitcoin visibly down. Yesterday, we wrote:

(...) the situation has been somewhat clarified and we've seen a move down on possibly increased volume. The volume hasn't been up as much as it has been on BitStamp but the overall situation nonetheless suggests more bearish action just now.

We're still on the lookout for a more important rebound to the upside but, taking into account the action today, the situation has further deteriorated and a bet on lower prices might be a good idea, provided that the move down gets more momentum.

 

 

This is still what we think about the market. It seems now that the decline might have stopped. If we see a more pronounced decline, it might be a good idea to ride some of it, but not just yet. This is why we keep our suggested sell limit order unchanged.

Expecting depreciation in the days or weeks to come, we still prefer to be ready for any significant rally which might come after such a slide, hence we also outline a buy limit order below.

Summing up, we don't support any speculative positions now.

Trading position (short-term, our opinion): no current positions. A sell limit order, entry at $332, stop-loss at $377, take-profit at $307. Additionally, a buy limit order, entry at $427, stop-loss at $357, initial target at $500.

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Bitcoin and Litecoin Are in Vulnerable Channels

http://www.forexminute.com/bitcoin/bitcoin-litecoin-vulnerable-channels-47912

By Forexminute - Fan Yang | Bitcoin, Litecoin, Technical Analysis Reports |

 

Oct 26, 2014 3:32PM GMT

 

 

Virtual currencies bitcoin and litecoin have been bearish in 2014, but consolidated in October. In the second half of the month however, they have been drifting back down. Both cryptocurrencies are sliding within falling channels. Will these channels hold up when being tested?

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 4h Chart 10/26

(click to enlarge)

Bitcoin has been retreating after a bullish swing from 275, new low on the year, to 418. It is now hovering above 340. The 4H chart shows the market in a falling channel.

Now, if price comes back around the 375 area, it will be testing the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs in the 4H chart and the falling channel resistance. If price can hold resistance here, the bearish outlook will be further confirmed by what’s known as a bearish slingshot signal – when price crosses under a key SMA then respects it as resistance. The bearish outlook has at least the 275 low in sight.

A break above 380 however would suggests further consolidation and bullish correction, especially if the 4H RSI pushes above 60. This will have the 418 high back in sight, with 450 being the next resistance pivot above that.

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Bitcoin Trading- BTC/USD Technical Analysis, Oct 26: BTC extends slump, breaks $340

http://dcmagnates.com/bitcoin-trading-btcusd-technical-analysis-oct-26-btc-extends-slump-breaks-340/

 

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has broken back through yet another support level as the pattern of weekend doldrums hitting the pair earlier this year appears to have returned.

BTC broke through the $340-$350 support platform 24h ago, hitting $337, hours after breaching the $360 mark on BTC-e. It has since bounced back as high as $360, now trading at $351.

Upon breaking $360, it was assessed that BTC is likely gradually completing a cycle of return back to the low $300’s. There is little historical support between current levels and $200, a range whose one-year anniversary of achievement is days away.

Should BTC approach that “touchy” level of $300 again, be on the lookout for some highly irregular trading activity and sharp moves in either direction. On BTC’s last tumble into the $300 patch, it was believed that stop orders of early adopters were activated, while abnormally large orders trapped prices below $300 for an extended period.

Volume has averaged about 300 BTC an hour.

The gap between BTC-e and Bitstamp has shrunk to $1.20 (0.3%), perhaps a signal of impending volatility. One of the anomalies during the aforementioned descent to $300 was a reversal in the BTC-e/Bitstamp gap, with the former exhibiting a premium of as much as 3%.

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Bitcoin Price Up For Air

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-air/

 

Weekend Trade had pulled the Bitcoin Price to a low of $341 on the Bitstamp chart. Since Saturday price has been leaving a trail of higher highs and Monday trade during the US Session looks set push overhead chart resistance out the way as both bulls and bears need some air.

 

Bitcoin Price Up For Now

Time of analysis: 11h30 UTC

 

US Session

Over the weekend price tested the $341 level (Bitstamp) three times before moving higher in choppy wave action. $341 coincides with the 1.618 Fib extension of wave a, as well as the 2.618 Fib extension of wave c, as annotated with a red arrow drawn from the Fib extension tool and pointing to Saturday’s low.

Bitstamp Hourly Chart

The reaction to $341 is consistent with the Bitcoin chart’s preference for .618 extension targets, yet $341 does not coincide with a significant Fib retracement level. In fact, none of the Fib extensions drawn from the corrective wave above coincide with the retracement levels for the advancing wave since 5 October. This is odd and can only mean one of two things:

• The correction is incomplete and after moving higher, decline will resume to the .618 ($330) or .89 ($290) retracement levels.
• The market used both the 50% (.5) retracement level as well as the 1.618 extension level to establish the end of correction.

We cannot know for certain which one of the two is the case but we can establish conditions that will confirm one whilst invalidating the other. Before stating the conditions let’s first look at what’s happening in the chart territory directly overhead.

Turbulence Up Above

Straight above, the 200-period moving average (200MA) is cutting through $369. Just above it, annotated with a green dashed line, is the current level of the daily 20 (twenty) period moving average (20MA) at $374. For readers who are unfamiliar with the significance of the 20MA, this moving average referenced on the daily timeframe chart has historically been the moving average above which Bitcoin price advance proceeds.

A dollar increment ($375) above the daily 20MA is the 1.618 Fib extension of the wave up since Saturdays low of $341.22.

The chart congestion in the area $369 to $375 is formidable and each of these chart features (the daily 20MA, the hourly 200MA and a 1.618 Fib extension level) are significant in isolation – nevermind in tight confluence as in the present hourly chart. Their primary function would be to resist price advance above their respective levels. Our primary expectation, therefore, is that price reverses off any one of them and resumes decline to our targets $330 or $290 below.

However, should the downside correction be complete, then we would expect buying to outweigh selling and for price to push its way through this strong area of resistance – either in a strong blast above $375 or in a systematic push-and-retreat manner. The latter will be characterized by zigzagging price action that gradually makes higher highs while leaving higher lows in its wake.

Breaking Through The Clouds

So our conditions for advance into wave 3 to the upside are:

• Price should achieve $374 and (without dropping back below $341) re-attempt breaking above it.
• Once an advance above $375 is evident then price should remain above the daily 20MA ($374) to confirm advance.

Heavy Weather Forces a Landing

Conditions for decline:

• If price attempts $374 yet fails to stay above it then resumption of the decline to $330 or $290 can be expected.
• If price – at any time – falls below $341 then expect decline to $330 or $290.

Note that in both advancing and declining scenarios outlined above the assumption is that the wave down from $417 (14 October) is a corrective wave of price action. Part and parcel of this assumption is that price will not make a new decline low below 5 October’s $275. The assumption can be invalidated by price falling even $0.01 below the decline low ($275.00 Bitstamp). In this eventuality, the existing targets at $260 and $200 come back into focus.

 

 

Summary

The bears and their bearish trade-bots had a full weekend of low liquidity in the exchanges to hammer down the Bitcoin price. Yet, buying interest has prevailed and trade has traced out a small advancing wave. The purpose of this wave is unclear and today’s analysis (above) outlines some conditions for confirming advance and decline.

Advance will be on the cards if price can break above $375 or systematically re-attempts this level without dropping away below $341 (Saturday’s low)

Expect continued decline toward $330 or $290 if price attempts $375 and fails (drops below $341) or simply turns from current levels (below $368) to downside action below $341.

CCN

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Bitcoin Barely Changed as Blockchain Technology Has New Supporter -

http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2014/10/27/bitcoin-barely-changed-blockchain-tech-gets-new-supporter/#sthash.cxOBoCkW.dpuf

 

 

Bitcoin is trading barely changed after another day spent around the $350 figure. Earlier today prices fell to a low of $342.20 only to rally to a daily high of $354.30 few hours later. We are currently trading at $353 per coin on BTC-E. As usual prices are slightly higher on OKCoin at $354 and at BitStamp at $356 for one bitcoin. Here’s how today’s trading session looked on BTC-E.

The two points to keep and eye on are $360 on the upside and $337 on the downside. While a move above $360 would likely signal an end to the latest downtrend, we would need to see a brakeout above the October 14th swing high at $408 before turning bullish. On the lower end, a move below $337 may see BTC/USD quickly fall toward $300. For other support/resistance levels, please take a look at my yesterday article here.

Bitcoin’s technology has another supporter. According to Oliver Bussmann, CIO of UBS , the biggest disrupting force today could be the bitcoin blockchain:  ”I believe and this is my personal view, that blockchain technology will not only change the way we do payments but it will change the whole trading and settlement topic”.

Bussmann thinks that it’s only a matter of time before some large institution implements the blockchain technology behind bitcoin and soon after the rest will follow: ”When somebody with a strong brand and security level establishes it as a reliable service, then the whole industry will follow. That is my personal prediction.”

Oliver Bussmann joins the a long line of supporters who think that bitcoin’s biggest contribution will be its distributed ledger technology and not the currency itself. Last month, this sentiment was expressed by the Bank of England. In a paper the BOE said that: ”key innovation of digital currencies is the ‘distributed ledger’ which allows a payment system to operate in an entirely decentralised way, without intermediaries such as banks.”

[Wochen-Umfrage]

gibts auch shortprognosen ? oder werden hier nur die longrufe ..gepostet

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Bitcoin Trading- BTC/USD Technical Analysis, Oct 29: BTC turns sharply lower, sets new 3-week low

 

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has just set a new 3-week low, hitting $335.88 on BTC-e minutes ago. It has dropped by nearly 6% in the past 24h, surpassing the $337 reached three days ago.

The last time BTC traded at these levels was immediately following the plunge to $285. From there, BTC rallied to as high as $408, after which the rally fizzled and price slowly ebbed back toward its new 2014 lows.

There is no support between current prices and those lows. Beyond these, one has to go back to the early stages of the rally to over $1000 one year ago to find the last time we’ve come across such levels.

BTC now trades 33% below its 200-day moving average (MA), now worth $500. It has not traded above this mark since during a brief 5-day period in early August.

The price on BTC-e is at about a $1.50 (0.45%) discount to those on other Exchanges.

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Bitcoin Price and QE

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-qe-closure/

Time of analysis: 13h30 UTC

US Session

The Bitcoin price has fallen below Saturday’s $341 (Bitstamp) and looks set to choose a direction as markets adjust to the Fed’s policy statement today. Targets at $330 and $290 are back within paw’s reach for the bears.

Bitstamp Hourly Chart

 

 

Summary

$330 and $290 are both targets with a strong potential for being the end of this wave 2 down. It’s prudent to wait for price to reverse strongly from either of these levels before buying on a higher low.

Buy conservatively at the .89 Fib retracement level (of the entire wave from 5 Oct – 14 Oct) at $290 (Bitstamp) with a tight stop-loss at $285. Should price bounce upward from this level and proceed back above $300 then look for price to hold above $300 on the daily chart before increasing your long position.

A drop below the 5 Oct low ($275 on Bitstamp) opens targets $260 and $205 to the downside

[Wochen-Umfrage]

gibts auch shortprognosen ? oder werden hier nur die longrufe ..gepostet

 

 

und schon kommt eine EW short prognose .. wobei ie 2 ja nur das Low ist  also start für die 3 ..dei aber hoch geht ..also doch wieder eine Longprognose ...hahahah

 

wegen der 320 /290 siehe drüben mein short Ziel auch auf den Kursbereich ..von daher tja sind wir der selben Meinung

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Bitcoin Lower As Banks Close Their Doors

http://www.investing.com/analysis/bitcoin-lower-as-banks-close-their-doors-230859

 

Technical Summary

5 mins: Strong Buy

Hourly: Sell

Daily: Strong Sell

Monthly: Neutral

 

The bitcoin price according to the BitStamp exchange broke through four daily support levels yesterday as the end of quantitative easing in the US boosted global confidence and saw huge moves into the US Dollar. The price fell from around $350 to $336.03 at present. Going forward strong support should be found at the $322 level, which is the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level from the high in the winter of 2013. Daily support will be found at just above this retracement level, at $327.36 and further support at $319.01, while daily resistance will be encountered at $350.02.

 

Exit Crypto

Two major Norwegian banks publicly announced Thursday that they will no longer service Bitcoin companies or businesses that operate with digital currencies. This has caused the Norwegian Bitcoin exchange, Justcoin, to close their doors to consumers. Last year the Norwegian Tax Administration stated that Bitcoin losses could be deducted from tax payments and tax should be paid on Bitcoin profits. However, this new development in Norway will hamper adoption and resistance from the banking sector illustrates the threat that Bitcoin poses to the current order of the financial sector.

A new study from the US suggest the consumer and businesses remain apprehensive in regard to using digital currencies. Software Advice, a software research firm, surveyed 400 small business owners and customers who answered a series of questions regarded their willingness to use digital currencies. 49% of consumers indicated that were not likely at all to use digital currencies while 50% of business owners surveyed stated that their companies are not equipped to handle digital currency usage. On the other hand, 19% of business owners said that they had taken steps to accept digital currencies. The report does note that the emerging business to business ecosystem for digital currencies is a positive sign for US companies.

The daily chart below shows that the price closed below the base line yesterday. This is the first time the price has been trading below the base line at the daily timeframe since the beginning of October. This indicate bearish momentum and we should see the price trend lower, since the price action is below the Ichimoku cloud as well. The cloud will act as resistance at the $350-$355 level. If the price moves above the base line at $346.50, this will signal bullish momentum and should see the price move towards the lower part of the cloud.

 

BTC/USD: Daily

 

At the 2-hour timeframe, the MACD seems to be signalling an upward move, as an upward cross looks imminent. If the MACD displays an upward cross and the histograms from the MACD start increasing, then this will indicate gains will be made further ahead. However, the relative strength index is still below 50, indicating a downward trend. At present, the relative strength index is at 35, indicating a downward trend but does not signal oversold conditions in the market just yet.

 

BTC/USD: 2 Hour

Bearbeitet 30. Oktober 2014 von segeln

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                     Cryptocurrencies Fall on New Regulatory Pressure in the States

https://blog.fxopen....-in-the-states/

 

Cryptocurrencies fell across the board yesterday on renewed regulatory pressure in the States. Bitcoin blew past $337 and few hours later the cryptocurrency hit a low of $328.93. Both Peercoin and Namecoin followed big brother bitcoin lower. Peercoin broke below $0.823 per coin to hit $0.801 and NMC fell to a daily low of $0.861 yesterday.

Bitcoin Breaks Below $337

Bitcoin broke below the lower bound of its range at $337 and soon after hit a low of $328 per coin. Everyone’s favorite cryptocurrency then took back some of the lost ground and is currently trading at $335.20.

Naturally, the break below $337 is bearish for bitcoin. The $328-$330 swing low is still fresh and thus unlikely to present strong support to falling prices. The first important level to keep an eye on is the $300 round figure, followed closely by $285. A break of the important milestone at $266 may lead to a prolonged period of losses for BTC. Like we’ve mentioned a few times previously, this figure was the high for BTC/USD during most of last year and will likely present a strong challenge to the bears. On the top end, bitcoin will need to both break and stay above the $350 figure to sap the strength of the current downtrend.

 

Renewed Regulatory Pressure in the States

Bitcoin firms find themselves under renewed regulatory pressure in the States. Just as the New York Department of Financial Services closed down the comment period on its proposed regulatory framework, two other US agencies joined in the ring. First FinCEN (Financial Crimes Enforcement Network) issued two new administrative rulings regarding virtual currency. According to the rulings, both bitcoin exchanges as well as bitcoin payment processors will now be required to get a money transmitter license. While bitcoin exchanges were anticipated to fall under some type of regulatory oversight, the inclusion of payment processors in the mix was not expected.

As FinCEN was issuing the heavy-handed rulings, the US Securities and Exchange Commission was allegedly sending out ‘’hundreds of letters’’ to cryptocurrency businesses. The story (which first broke on Coinfire.fr but the link was later removed) claims that the Commission is targeting businesses that have used bitcoin or other cryptos to crowdfund their operation.

Namecoin and Peercoin Fell Short

While Peercoin followed the initial bitcoin move lower and prices broke past the lower bound of the range at $0.823, they failed short of $0.80. As I mentioned in my article two days ago ‘’if PPC/USD moves below $0.82 (or better yet below the $0.80 round figure), the next support can be found at the October 5th swing low at $0.736’’. While the move below $0.823 is certainly bearish, a clearing of $0.80 would be a better signal that the sellers are now fully in charge.

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Bitcoin Price Narrow Range, Might Not Be for Long

http://www.marketora...ticle47953.html

 

 

Oct 29, 2014 - 04:55 AM GMT

By: Mike_McAra

 

To the point: no speculative positions.

Bitcoin companies are already working on various issues regarding regulatory compliance. Arthur Levitt, a former SEC chairman, is now advising two Bitcoin-related companies, we read on the Wall Street Journal Website:

Quote

 

As an adviser to Atlanta-based BitPay, a bitcoin payment processor, and Vaurum, a Palo Alto-based bitcoin exchange for institutional investors, Mr. Levitt says he hopes to "help them understand the imperative of a robust approach to regulation" if bitcoin is to fulfill its promise to further shake up the world of finance. The appointments will be formally announced Tuesday.

(...)

"The intellectual firepower behind [bitcoin] enterprises is astonishing," Mr. Levitt said. "But I think in terms of compliance and regulations, they are relatively immature."

He said bitcoin needs regulation to build the trust of the broader population and boost adoption. Bitcoin firms "must have as their top priority a greater public understanding of what bitcoin is, how it works" and of the improvement it brings by "imposing competitiveness on establishment practices and procedures," he added.

 

This is probably a major development for the companies involved, but also a sign that Bitcoin startups are approaching the theme of regulation with care and seriousness. No doubt, Mr. Levitt's expertise might help the firms realize what might be required of them by the SEC or other government agencies.

It also seems that Mr. Levitt's comments show that he has some understanding of Bitcoin companies. As we have expressed in the past, the action of promoting Bitcoin and making the general audience aware of what the currency exactly is will be one the most important parts of the evolution of the system.

On top of that, it's inevitable that more regulation will come in so the companies should get ready for this and possible make preemptive moves either to sit down with regulators and try to get the up to speed on what Bitcoin is, or consult people familiar with the regulatory requirements Bitcoin and Bitcoin startups might face in the future. Mr. Levitt's appointment falls into the second category.

 

For now, let's focus on the recent developments in the market.

On the BitStamp chart we continue to see the pattern of small moves around $350. Yesterday was a classic case of such a development with the price range relatively narrow and the volume still relatively weak and we commented on that situation in the following way:

Not much has changed since this comment was posted. We've seen some movement above $350 today (this is written before 11:15 a.m. ET) without this level being breached (dashed red line in the chart). On the other hand, the volume seems to be down today to relatively low levels. Combine this with the fact that the range of moves has generally been on a slide since the recent slump (with one exception) and you get a picture where we haven't seen a strong move for some time, the short-term outlook is deteriorating and Bitcoin might be ready to follow the recent trend down.

Quote

Today, Bitcoin hasn't moved much and is still above $350 (this is written after 1:15 p.m.). We still haven't seen enough clarification to determine which scenario, depreciation or appreciation, is currently in progress. For the time being, it seems that the market is experiencing a period of weakness with the volume down and the currency not exactly breaking with its recent trend. As such, it seems that we might see a slip below $350 (dashed red line in the chart), to $300. The action, however, is not conclusive enough to go short.

 

The long-term BTC-e chart displays a consistent image. Bitcoin has been going down since mid-October and this decline seems to fit well with the overall trend which has been down for some time now. Yesterday, we went on to write:

Quote

The overall picture is more of a move down than anything else. This move follows a relatively strong correction to the upside. We've seen around half of the recent move up being wiped out. We're getting close to the point where we might just as well see a rebound. We haven't seen any sign of it yet.

The situation might actually get more bearish if we see a slip below $350 but also if we see a period of weak depreciation or stagnation. It seems that if we see a move down, the currency might go as low as $350. The situation looks more bearish than not today but the circumstances don't seem bearish enough to go short at the moment.

 

 

These remarks are still up to date today. Bitcoin hasn't moved below $350 strongly and the volume has been modest. Yet another day has passed since the recent slump and without a significant rebound. All this makes the short-term outlook even more bearish than it was yesterday. However, at the moment of writing, there hasn't been a meaningful sign of weakness, either. In these circumstances we stick to the previously-outlined strategy of waiting on the sidelines with limit orders ready to be triggered on a sign of more action in the market.

Summing up, we don't support any speculative positions at the moment.

Trading position (short-term, our opinion): no current positions. A sell limit order, entry at $332, stop-loss at $377, take-profit at $307. Additionally, a buy limit order, entry at $427, stop-loss at $357, initial target at $500.

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Bitcoin Price Faces Lower Lows in Continuing Slow Decline

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-faces-lower-lows-continuing-slow-decline/

 

Bitcoin Price is continuing a slow decline. Our target at $330 has not been struck decisively and price currently looks set to return to it – if not lower.

Bitcoin Price Lower Lows

Time of analysis: 04h30 UTC

Asian Session

The Bitcoin price has rebounded from just above $330 in what looks to be a three wave structure to the upside. The wave reached above $350 before turning back down.

Bitstamp Hourly Chart

The directional bias is unclear, and we’ll have to wait and see what price action does during the coming sessions.

One possibility is that price concludes retracement to .618 since it has not been struck decisively. However, BTC-China’s chart has already exceed .618 which argues that the decline continues to .89 retracement at $290 (Bitstamp).

As much as several readers get their knickers in a jam at the mention of moon phase, I’ll disregard their sensitivity to esoterics and suggest that the decline may continue until next Friday 7 November’s Harvest Moon. In this case we may see a new decline low at $260 or $200 or lower.

Time of analysis: 09h30 UTC

European Session

Bitcoin price is superimposed in magenta.

Gold 4-Hourly Chart

Given the positive correlation between the Gold and Bitcoin charts during the past few months, it could be expected that Bitcoin follow Gold down to a decline low. However, Bitcoin has not yet made the journey. Perhaps the market is waiting for a catalyst. Seeing that Bitcoin has been less volatile than Gold during the past two weeks (as visible on the chart), it seems more likely that Bitcoin makes its decline over another week. Such an outlook needs to show itself by Bitcoin price staying below its daily 20-period moving average.

 

 

Summary

Decline looks likely to continue to $290 (Bitstamp). First give the .618 Fibonacci retracement at $330 (Bitstamp) a chance to assert itself – if it gives way then $290 becomes the next target.

Updates will track progress and identify conditions of a trend change.

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More Weakness in Bitcoin Price

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article48002.html

To the point: speculative short positions, stop-loss at $377, take-profit at $307.

let's turn to the charts.

On BitStamp, there was appreciation yesterday and the price was even pushed above $350 for a time, before declining back to around $345 at the end of the day. The volume was elevated and this made the action yesterday well-worth noting. The failed move above $350 could have been indicative of a lack of strength.

Even though we saw a move up yesterday, today seems to be a completely different story. The price has gone down slightly (this is written after 11:30 a.m. ET) and the volume has been decidedly weaker than yesterday and on the day before yesterday.

What do we make of this kind of action? First of all, the lack of move above $350 might be indicative of a lack of buying power in the market. Secondly, the volume is not quite convincing. Thirdly, the price range today has been narrower than yesterday. All these points suggest that we might be seeing a cooling in trading. This, in turn might be a hint that the momentum is still very much in line with the recent trend, which has been down.

On the long-term BTC-e chart, we see yesterday's move up relatively clearly. The move was similar to what we saw on BitStamp in that we also witnessed appreciation above $350 but a slide below this level late in

Today, the currency has remained where it was yesterday with the volume down. At the moment, it seems that we might see some wavering here but given the level of $332 being reached we favor short speculative positions at this time.

 

 

 the day. Yesterday, before most of the appreciation materialized, we wrote:

In light of what has happened today, the appreciation of yesterday may in fact be a symptom of "wavering" as we described it. Today, Bitcoin has depreciated slightly, erasing some of yesterday's gains and, perhaps more importantly, showing that the recent move up might not be more than a one-day tick.

Taking the above into account, it seems to us that it is best to position oneself so as to profit from a move down in Bitcoin. This means that the short-term outlook remains largely unchanged from yesterday and is bearish. Actually, more action similar to what we've seen today, even without a strong move down, could suggest that there is little strength in the market.

Summing up, in our opinion short speculative positions might be the way to go now.

Trading positions (short-term, our opinion): short speculative positions, stop-loss at $377, take-profit at $307. Additionally, a buy limit order, entry at $427, stop-loss at $357, initial target at $500.

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Bitcoin Slightly Up After Two Days of Losses

http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2014/11/02/bitcoin-slightly-two-days-losses/

 

Bitcoin is trading slightly up today after the previous two days ended in losses for the cryptocurrency. Since our update yesterday, BTC/USD fell to a new low of $319.14. Today that low got retested at $319.10 but BTC prices subsequently rebounded to $324 per coin. This is slightly higher compared to today’s opening price of $320.67.

 

 

 

But even if bitcoin manages to close in the green today, the trend down will remain. To break the down-spell, BTC will need to climb back above $350 per coin. On the downside, today’s swing low at $319 is weak support but it may nonetheless present some challenge to the bears. Further down, the $300 round figure is another potential support area for BTC. Below $300, the October 5th low at $285 marked the lowest point for bitcoin’s during its latest fall. Lower still, the $266 mark will be a crucial milestone for BTC. A break lower may lead to prolonged losses for BTC. -

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Bitcoin Analysis: Week of Nov 2 (Intro to Stochastics)

http://cointelegraph.com/news/112849/bitcoin-analysis-week-of-nov-2-intro-to-stochastics

 

Last Week’s Review

In last week’s post we concluded with the following statement:

We are as neutral across the board as can be, with the Long-term chart looking borderline Bearish once again. What looked like a great buying opportunity and continuation of momentum from early October has fizzled away.  There are definitely positives to point to in that the demand in early October was something we have not seen in 6 months and if we turn right here at these US$330-340 support levels we should have established that textbook higher low that we were hopping for prior to the move up to US$420. The ideal course of action right now might be to just wait and see if this week’s lows are here to stay.

Since we are calling the current conditions 50/50, here is what to watch for in no particular order:

Bearish: A fall bellow the US$340 will likely bring about lower prices.  Support levels under that are $330, $300 and the US$265-275 zone… don’t even want to think about what happens below that.

Bullish: The first small hurdle is the US$363-$365 area that has been touched on two small rebounds this past week.  Once that is broken to the upside some momentum should set in and the next level of resistance is the US$385-400 zone where we got stuck for almost an entire week. Breaking that takes us to new highs at the US$440-450 resistance zone

Last Sunday we were completely 50/50 as to which direction the price would go. We identified a range between US$340 and US$363 and concluded that if one of these lines ware to be crossed, there would be a continuation of the move. On October 29, we fell bellow US$340 and even though there was a small rebound the next day from US$330 to US$350, it was too little too late and the prices proceeded to fall all the way to about US$315 soon after. This move has left Bitcoin’s price in a very vulnerable position as some are now beginning to lose confidence as to whether this technological experiment going into it’s 6 year would be the revolution early adopters expected.

Let’s take a look at the long-term chart, which after a very promising 2 weeks with buying volume not seen since the 2013 days, has once again resumed its Bearish trend. 

Last week we reserved one additional week to allow some hope for the price to appreciate a bit, but once US$340 support was lost, the Long-Term view was once again considered Bearish. At this point there is not much technical support left that is going to keep it from crossing under US$300. The only positive still left to consider is that a lot of big players got in when the price dipped about a month ago and if some of them sold a bit for profit they might buy big again just above US$300 in order to keep their earlier position in the money. 

On the flip side however, some of those big players might consider taking whatever profit they can get right here just above US$300 so that all that effort spent tacking down the BearWhale does not come at a loss.  If that turns out to be the case, Bitcoin can drop under US$300 quickly and then accelerate the fall into the mid US$200
US$340 support was lost, the Long-Term view was once again considered Bearish. At this point there is not much technical support left that is going to keep it from crossing under US$300. The only positive still left to consider is that a lot of big players got in when the price dipped about a month ago and if some of them sold a bit for profit they might buy big again just above US$300 in order to keep their earlier position in the money.

Education (Indicators pt. III - Stochastics)

Stochastics (ex: Full, Slow, Fast) is the last indicator we will cover in this series for now, but readers are also encouraged to look at other popular indicators like ADX & CCI out of perhaps hundreds out there.

The most common uses of Stochastics are also to identify overbought oversold conditions as well as indications of momentum. As always we point the education to Chart School on StockCharts.com though many other sources explain this well.  The concepts are very similar to the other indicators explained in prior weeks and just like those, this one can also be used to spot divergence.

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Bitcoin Putting up a Fight Every Step of the Way

http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2014/11/04/bitcoin-putting-fight-every-step-way/

 

The slow drift lower continues for Bitcoin but the cryptocurrency is putting up a fight every step of the way. Two days ago prices stalled/reversed near the $330 mark, today that honor goes to $320 as BTC halted the decline then gained some ground just above the figure. In the previous two weeks BTC/USD has trouble breaking past first $345 and then $337.

 

 

Not sure what to make of the small measured moves lower. Usually in bitcoin (as in most other financial markets) falls tend to happen at a much faster pace compared to uptrends. This year alone we had several ”flash crashes” that marked the end of their respective downtrends. The last time this happened was on October 5th (at BitStamp), before that we had another massive crash in August (at BTC-E). The latest unusually soft declines could be just variance or they may be a prelude to a reversal upward, only time will tell. For now, I will continue to pay close attention to the price for clues. On the downside, a break below $319 should extend the decline toward the $300 round figure. Further down, the October 5th swing low at $285 may present a challenge to the bears. On the upside, BTC/USD will need to climb back above $350 figure to end the current downtrend. The Superintendent of the New York Department of Financial Services, Benjamin Lawsky, held the keynote speech at the Money 2020 Conference. Not much new was said in the speech. The Superintendent is behind the push to create a whole new regulatory framework that would apply to virtual currencies like bitcoin. Here is the Q&A portion of the speech. -

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Bitcoin Trading- BTC/USD Technical Analysis, Nov 5: BTC climbs to highest point this month

http://dcmagnates.com/bitcoin-trading-btcusd-technical-analysis-nov-5-btc-climbs-to-highest-point-this-month/

 

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has bounced back, hitting $338.50, its highest price this month on BTC-e. The rise represents but a small break in its losing streak that started in mid-October.

The streak saw BTC set successively lower multi-week lows. It did hold off, however, from seriously threatening 2014 lows. Selling decelerated 24h ago when prices compressed no further, bottoming at $318, less than a dollar off the lows set 48h prior. The $320 area has functioned as a reasonable short-term support level of sorts in November.

Right now, BTC needs to get over the $338 hump in order to have any chance of recovering further in the near-term. It ran out of gas at the same mark 72h ago.

The rise of 6.3% over the past 24h is the largest in a week.

Volume has been moderate, averaging 200-300 BTC per hour on BTC-e. One should note that dollar-based volume is fairly low relative to what was considered average periods several months ago, as the corresponding price of 1 BTC has declined significantly.

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Bitcoin Price Rally! (But Likely Not To the Moon Yet)

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-rally-probably-moon/

 

Price Rally of the Regulated Bitcoin Price

Now that the Bitcoin price has been successfully subjected to regulation in the US we need to consider the price chart in a different light.

 

The number of institutions now offering regulated Bitcoin investment vehicles and the amount of Wall Street money dedicated to this purpose has lifted Bitcoin out of the risky early adoption phase. Some market commentators argue that Bitcoin has been aggressively traded by Wall Street banks and hedge funds for well over a year.

The largest players, with the apparent assistance from the centralized exchanges, have effected a controlled decline of the Bitcoin price over the past ten months. Failure to make a lower low than 5 October’s $275 (Bitstamp) means that a more powerful wave to the upside has begun. Now that the largest players, who invest Other People’s Money (OPM), have an objective low and a price chart with a $1,000 all time high in the recent past, they can solicit the investment that the Bitcoin Foundation’s new-fangled and regulated Bitcoin price chart has been positioned for.

However, consider how the usual two-month wonder price rally is not all that good for big business. Imagine a swift rally, between now and New Year, to $1,500 followed by profit taking that brings the price back to $500. An obligatory correction lasting several months… and how do these large funds justify holding investors’ money? How do they justify their existence and running costs if they are only going to be taking profit once a year after a two-month rally?

One solution is to control the advance in the same way they had massaged the decline. However, this is expensive because Bitcoin wants to rally – they’d be burning a lot of money for the sake of appearances and favorable client reports.

The second option, which seems more achievable, is to let the market rally, but to halt the advance, intermittently, at obvious technical levels. Instead of letting price correct and resume the advance at these levels, it is conceivable that they switch on the bear bots to bring price all the way back down again. The client report reads: “Latest Bitcoin Rally Nets $x Million for BitGasm Fund Clients” and the enforced price lows serve as an incentive for new clients to commit their capital.

A third option is just to let the Bitcoin price rally run its course to $4,000 and above but then the risk becomes that greed and profit taking make the price chart volatile and scary to show to clients.

If you and your buddies spent years building a multi-million dollar business that depended on lobbying and campaigning of a non-profit (BF) as well as parastatals (SEC and CFTC) then – once achieved – what would you do? .

Besides, the BF seems to have presentience of something that’s coming:

 

 

  Bitcoin Price Rally

Time of analysis: 04h00 UTC

Asian Session

Weekend trade bounced the Bitcoin price off the 4-hourly 20-period moving average, and, on Sunday, price climbed above the 200-period moving average.

BTC-e 4-Hourly Chart

Holding above the 200MA on the 4-hour chart will be a sign of continuing advance while dropping below it will signal the end of the advancing trend. Before looking at price targets for the advance let’s quickly take a closer look at price action since the low ($318 BTC-e, $317 Bitstamp) made last week.

The following 15-minute BTC-e chart shows the characteristic wave patterns of a Bitcoin advancing wave.

BTC-e 15-Minute Chart

Turning to the daily chart, we see that price is well above the daily 20MA. The 1.618 Fib extension of the wave up from 5 October is in proximity to the daily 200MA near $500.

Bearbeitet 10. November 2014 von segeln

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Bitcoin Analysis: Week of Nov 9 (Intro to Fibonacci)

http://cointelegraph.com/news/112892/bitcoin-analysis-week-of-nov-9-intro-to-fibonacci

 

 

Last Week’s Review

In last week’s post we concluded with the following statement:

We have now turned Bearish across all time frames. Until proven otherwise any bounce is expected to just be new lower high until we can get back above US$420. What we thought was a nice positive move on amazing volume a month ago that took us from US$275 to US$420 was not enough to get the masses on board. A reasonable bounce to $340 is very possible but we are now looking for prices to reach low US$300’s and if that support goes, there is not much holding it up until we match 2014 lows in the US$265-275 zone.

We will also remain diligent of the following situation

Bearish: As if our primary view was not negative enough we are now looking at possibilities of where a reversal is most likely if we fall below US$265. We will discuss this next week if the price does fall from current levels.

Bullish: This will be a tall order, all the resistance mentioned in the weeks prior to the BearWhale event are still there and now we are putting in more of them. First micro-sign of a reversal is a move over US$340 and staying above that value for a day or two, then the US$350-360 zone, US$385, US$400 and US$420. So until all of those are behind us, the overall trend remains down.

As you can see last Sunday we were very Bearish at a time when price had rebounded from around US$320 to US$330. In hindsight, the bounce had a little more legs in it than initially expected, but as the primary view explains, the overall picture will remain Bearish according to the charts as long as we stay below US$400 and most like US$420.

Yes this is a very unpopular view, but we remain very objective and re-evaluate the situation on a weekly basis. The short version, which will be expended upon here, is that the price making all the way to US$364 is an impressive bounce but more is needed to change the downward trend.

Of all the times this analyst hopes to be wrong - it is right here and hopefully we fly back up and past US$420 this week due to some of the news events that are happening at the moment. As usual don’t forget, the recommended amount of capital an average person should be putting at risk for their trading is 10-20%, so if you have accumulated 100 bitcoins, ideally you only want to use 15 or so for trading. The rest should be secure and you are the only one holding the private key with several encrypted USB backups in safe locations.

Let’s take a look at the long-term chart, which has now recovered all the way back to a recently drawn downward trend-line and this week will determine if we can break above it.

A break of this line to the upside would be a great first sign of a change in trend, but this would not happened until after the price is consistently above $365 to even consider the possibility. If you look back on the chart above to May, you will see a similar pattern of what happened the last time this kind of trend line broke to the upside, but there were 3 weeks of consolidation prior to that event.

Until it is clear that we are above this line, there is no reason to deviate from the overall trend, which as of this writing is still slightly to the downside.

Education (Fibonacci Retracements)

Fibonacci Retracements are a great tool to look for support and resistant values once a significant movement in price has started to reverse. Most charting software is able to plot these levels for you once you have identified the upper and lower ranges. The more significant levels are the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% values. Two additional retracements that traders watch but are statically a little less relevant are 23.6% and its opposite 76.4%, though the picture below is showing one of them to be supporting the price after the rebound.

As usual, more detailed explanation and examples can be found at Chart School on StockCharts.com though many other sources explain this well.  The general idea here is that prices will tend to rebound or pull back based on certain psychological levels.

For example, if a the price of Bitcoin has moved from a clear low at US$100 to a clear high at US$1,100 and then noticeably started to lose value, a trader would keep an eye on what happens after the price falls US$380 to around US$720 because that would be a retrace of 38.2% of the US$1,000 up move

 

Daily Overview

Here is our 1-year Daily chart still referencing Fibonacci Retracements and a few Trend Lines broken back in July:

The full year look back still does not look healthy. It was turning into something good in early October when there was a lot of strong buying, but coming back to a low around US$315 was not encouraging. Everyone is now thrilled that prices are back to US$360 but we remain very cautious. Any reversal between now and US$420 would create a lower low and then the magic value will be that US$315 mark, which is on the verge of becoming critical support.

There is plenty of upside between here and US$420 so traders, especially those that like leverage, are urged to be extra cautious, but for the time being we are looking for prices to take a break before getting there.

The Shorter-term chart is still showing some signs of life, but the upside remains limited. We are coming up on the 50 day SMA, which currently sits at US$375 and the previous 3 times the price came up to meet this moving average thing did not work out all that well and prices dropped significantly.

The two technical indicators on the chart (RSI & Stochastic) are showing some nice signs so that is one nice piece of encouragement. We are limiting our upside potential here to around US$375 and then are expecting some downside in prices to test the US$330 and perhaps even US$315. Another thing to keep an eye on is the symmetric triangle that might be forming if prices reverse any time between now and US$375.

Conclusion

We remain slightly Bearish long-term though acknowledge that the price may be breaking our descending trend line. We’re still pretty Bearish intermediate term unless we see prices move back into the US$400 range but we are a little optimistic short-term as this up move continues to break small resistance points one by one, but now we are going to start approaching more established resistance. We are expecting this move to take a decent pause between now and the 50 day SMA currently around US$375.

We will also remain diligent of the following situation

Bullish: If the short-term trend has been reversed we would see resistance broken one hurdle at a time, which currently stand at US$375, US$400, US$420. Surpassing the US$420 mark would turn around most of the views on our charts, but until then we will not rush to judgment and follow what the larger trends indicate.

Bullish: We may have established a new visible low at US$315, if so then it’s a great sign. That is now our new line in the sand; any reversal at these levels needs to stay above that value. If US$315 cannot hold up the prices, we may see this year’s lows revisited.

Reference Point:  Sunday Nov 9, 11:30 pm ET, Bitstamp Price US$360

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Bitcoin / USD Hourly Wave Count – August 11th, 2014

http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-hourly-wave-count-august-11th-2014/

 

Bitcoin price is still in a Minor 2 correction, as outlined in the hourly chart below. The price movement since the recent high at 658 has not been extremely impulsive to the downside, as I would expect for a © of Minor 2 move down as was proposed in the latest wave count on July 14th. The daily squeeze that was explained in my post produced a decent move of about $60 to the downside, but the waves have been overlapping and choppy. Therefore, I have modified the count to show the price action since the wave (a) low of 538 as a descending triangle for wave (. All minuette degree waves within the triangle are counted as three wave moves. The wave © move down will then follow.

Targets for the © of 2 wave down range between the 62% retrace of Minor 1 at 470.31 and the 78% retrace of Minor 1 at 415.35. The © = (a) target is 429. These are estimated measurements based on fibonacci retracements that provide a rough guideline. All in all, the wave © move down is satisfied as soon as 538.38 is breached to the downside, but the first target of 470 should at least get hit for the minutte waves of © to properly form.

At this moment, technical indicators on the Bitcoin 2 hour chart are extremely oversold, so I would expect a small bounce or extended sideways movement before the wave d-( drop down to around 555. A three wave move up for wave e-( of the descending triangle should then form, followed by a violent move down for wave ©-2 once the flat bottom trendline of the triangle is broken. Bitcoin price cannot move above the c-( wave of the triangle at 607.20 by much if this count is valid.

Good trading. Set stop losses to the downside if you are long.

 

Feel free to join us at the Bitcointalk Cryptowaves thread. Discussion is easier there compared to the comment section on this site.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=555289.new#new

 

 

August 11, 2014 – Bitcoin Hourly Chart