Bitcoin-Chartanalyse

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Bitcoin Trading- BTC/USD Technical Analysis, Nov 10: BTC extends rally, clears $360 hurdle

http://dcmagnates.com/bitcoin-trading-btcusd-technical-analysis-nov-10-btc-extends-rally-clears-360-hurdle/

 

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has resumed its hot streak, jumping another 7% during the past 24h. It is currently trading at a 17-day high of $368 on BTC-e.

Since bottoming at $318 last week, BTC has returned 15%.

BTC has successfully cleared $360, a difficult point of resistance encountered 2 weeks ago. Mid-term, the next challenge will be the formidable $380 range, which proved insurmountable following its latest return to above $400.

BTC will need to eventually spend some time back above $400 in order to make a case that a bottoming has indeed occurred and long-term recovery is in the works.

BTC still remains nearly 30% off its 200-day moving average (MA), which recently slipped below $500 for the first time since March. However, today’s jump brings it above the 50-day MA for the first time since late July, when prices were hovering near $600.

Volume, which was below average during flat trade over the weekend, has picked up significantly during today’s rise. Close to 500 BTC have crossed hands, on average, during the past 24h.

Prices on BTC-e are roughly equal to those of its peers, which is not uncommon during uptrends.

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No BitLicense Pleases Bitcoin Users

http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2014/11/No-BitLicense-Pleases-Bitcoin-Users-November-11-2014/36753?ab=fxamb1&utm_expid=3673405-7.v9TXkD4lS1aCSQjYnNh02w.1&utm_referrer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailyforex.com%2Fforex-technical-analysis%2Fbitcoin-forecast%2Fpage-1%3Fab%3Dfxamb1

 

 

 

11 November, 2014 GMT

 

 

By: Ben Myers

New York Superintendent of Financial Services Benjamin Lawsky, who has been trying to introduce a BitLicense legislation for all companies that are working with Bitcoin is rumoured to be stepping down in 2015. Industry experts are considering this a relief, as they are of the view that the proposed legislation by Lawsky was anti-business. They additionally feel that his exit will allow start-ups to have more breathing space and allow companies to flourish under free market situations.

The BTC/USD continued its upwards trend during the overnight session but was unable to sustain itself higher levels. Now in the morning session, the BTC/USD started trading higher but like last night it has been unable to endure these conditions. Its resistance continues to remain around $370 leading analysts to believe only a move above this level should start a reversal. Meanwhile, support on the downside still lingers at $320.

The crypto-currency continues to trade below its daily moving averages, while its momentum indicator is in fact trending higher. Additionally its relative strength index is producing a buy signal, which is of course a bullish sign in the short-term. It is imperative to note that the upwards momentum that the BTC/USD experienced over the past couple of days is due to above average volumes, This should undoubtedly calm analysts nerves who have recently been speculating regarding the waning interest in the crypto-currency.

Actionable Insight:

Long the BTC/USD if it moves above $370 for a short term target at $400, with a strict stop loss below $347

Short the BTC/USD if it moves below $330 for a short term target at $280, with a strict stop loss above $347

 

 

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Bitcoin Rallies Past $350 as FBI Shuts Down Hundreds of Darknet Markets

https://blog.fxopen.com/bitcoin-rallies-past-350-as-law-enforcement-shuts-down-hundreds-of-darknet-markets/

Bitcoin prices gained $24 dollars after the important $350 level gave way on Sunday. Everyone’s favorite virtual currency rallied to a high of $374.60 and altcoins followed suit. Peercoin broke above $0.80 and Namecoin took out $0.90 yesterday. Let’s take a look at bitcoin’s technical picture and then we’ll go over the fundamental reasons for the rise.

The $350 figure was important one for BTC. In several of our previous articles we mentioned that a break above would snap bitcoin’s losing streak, at least in the short-term. Sunday’s breakout was followed by a large 6.8% rally that topped out at $374 on Monday. Since then, prices have eased somewhat and BTC/USD is currently trading at $362 per coin.

While the move above $350 and the subsequent rally certainly signal an end to the downtrend, to trigger a sustained rally, bitcoin will need to break the $400 figure, or better yet, the $408 swing high as well. Right below this, the $374-$380 area may provide weak resistance to the bulls. On the downside, while a break below the $345-$350 support would be a cause for worry, BTC will need to move below the October 2^nd swing low at $319 to continue the downtrend.

 

Law Enforcement Shuts Down Hundreds of Darknet Markets

The FBI, along with Europol and the Department of Homeland Security announced that they have arrested 17 people, across multiple countries, in a massive crackdown on what are known as ‘’Darknet Markets’’. The operation dubbed ‘’Onymous’’ lead to the closure of hundreds of online marketplaces including ‘’Silk Road 2.0.’’ The sites allowed the sale of drugs that are considered illegal in most jurisdictions.

Repeat of 2013?

The operation lead many to speculate that we may experience another post crackdown rally, similarly to the one we had last year after the Feds shutdown Silk Road 1. Here’s a chart that showcases what happened last year when the FBI first shutdown the site and 20 days later disclosed that they have seized 144,000 BTC belonging to Ross Ulbricht, the alleged mastermind behind SR1.

In both instances the initial shock lead to a spike lower but this was quickly followed by bids to buy up the cheap coins. The resulting rally took bitcoin prices to a high of $1090 on November 30^th 2013 (all-time high for the cryptocurrency).

What’s Different This Time?

But there are a couple of things that are different this time. First, the bitcoin economy today is much more diversified and doesn’t rely on Darknet sales as much. Large companies like Overstock, DISH, DELL now accept bitcoins for payment, as do non-profits like United Way and Wikipedia. Second, Silk Road 2.0, the biggest of the websites that got shutdown last week, only did bitcoin sales of around $8 million per month, much smaller then its predecessor which had revenue of 50-100 million dollars per month.

While I’m not discounting the possibility for a bitcoin rally, especially considering the fact that we are currently trading over 50 percent down this year and the fact that we just snapped a major downspell, I think the impact of the crackdown will be much smaller this time around. As always, keep an eye on the technicals as they will likely be the determining factor going forward.

 

 

inShare0

 

 

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Bitcoin is Trying to Turn the Corner

http://www.fxpips.com/bitcoin-trying-turn-corner/

Bitcoin (BTCUSD:BTCE) has been consolidating since early October after it marked a low on the year at 285. After a rally to about 408, the cryptocurrency fell again, but this time, it held above the 285 low, and instead bounced off the 320 level.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 4H Chart 11/11

(click to enlarge)

After a double bottom off the 320 handle, price extended above a falling trendline from October’s 408 high.

Price broke above the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs).

Finally, the 4H RSI pushed above 70 almost to 80, showing that it is initiating strong bullish momentum.

With these conditions in place, it appears that bitcoin is attempting to turn the corner from being bearish throughout 2014.

Now, if price falls back, we should watch the 340 area.  If price can hold above 340, and the 4H RSI can hold above 40, bitcoin should be supported, and have a bullish outlook at least toward the 408 high from last month.

If price falls below 340, and the 4H RSI dips below 40, then bitcoin would have failed to turn the corner, and therefore remain bearish with pressure toward the 320 low last week, and the 285 low from last month.

When, we look at the daily chart, we can also see the prevailing downtrend, but the attempt to break above the 50-day SMA. The RSI has tagged 20 and held below 60, showing persistent bearish momentum.

Bitcoin (BTUCSD) Daily Chart 11/11

(click to enlarge)

It looks like even if we do have a bullish outlook in the short-term, price will remain bearish in the medium-term if it holds below 440, and a falling trendline from July.

Now, if the current rally in the 4H chart extends, and the rally breaks above the 408 high, we should expect sellers in the 440 area. However, if price continues to push above 440, the bearish outlook might be in trouble, and bitcoin may very well be on a bullish reversal.

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Cryptocurrency Trading News: Bitcoin Breaks above 380-Resistance Level

http://www.forexminute.com/bitcoin/cryptocurrency-trading-news-bitcoin-breaks-380-resistance-level-49640

 

ForexMinute.com – Last 24 hours in the cryptocurrency market have been quite great for Bitcoin and other altcoins. While the former is surely in a near-term bullish territory, the latters – Litecoin, Dogecoin and Darkcoin – are also following the sentiments aroused by the Bitcoin’s current price rally, with each rising more than 2% over the last 24 hours.

The focus however is on the Bitcoin which yesterday slipped into bearish cracks for a notable period. There is a rumor in the market that Bitcoin was going to rebound from the 370-resistance level, but was saved by cryptocurrency exchange OKCoin, which announced the start of a whopping $3 million worth hedge fund on their platform. However, this doesn’t mean they are currently pumping the market cap, but surely had succeeded to create a positive ambience among the traders.

Moreover, buyers are closely watching previous month’s rally from the bottom of 275 as the inspiration to the current uptrend. The technical indicators are indicating prices to try 420-425 as the next resistance level, while footing on 380 as a strong support to another upward rally.

Here is a closer look of what happened in US markets over the last 24 hours.

BTC/USD

The BTC/USD opened at 369 during the 11/11 trading session and continued to trend sideways below the SMA. There were certain attempts to break the prevailing bullish correction period. As a result, the price fell into an oversold territory for a small period, hitting the previous support level of 362. However at this point, the BTC/USD rebounded once again and began to trend upwards amid string and constant buying. The pair closed at 372, with RSI near 70.

The uptrend continued even in today’s trading session, and price ultimately broke the 380-key resistance level. There the RSI has pushed above 70, and the price currently in a bullish zone. If it stay in the same rally, the BTC/USD pair might even cross the 400-mark by the end of today. The sentiment however can remain to be mixed, as the bullish corrections seem to exist only for short term. Furthermore, a strong reversal from the peak is expected, just like last month.

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Bitcoin Price Soars Above $400 and Continues to Climb Rapidly

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/bitcoin-price-soars-above-400-continues-climb-rapidly-1474522

 

 

The price of bitcoin has reached its highest levels since September(CoinMarketCap)

 

The price of bitcoin has surged by more than $70 (£25, €32) in the last 24 hours to $431 (at time of publication), taking it to its highest levels since September.

The remarkable recovery has brought bitcoin's market cap back up above $5 billion and has caused a significant amount of positive movement across other cryptocurrency markets.

Litecoin, often referred to as silver to bitcoin's gold, has risen by 7% since Tuesday, while meme-inspired cryptocurrency dogecoin rose in value by more than 8%.

"Bitcoin's price is up more than 25 percent since its brief foray to under $300 at the start of October," Michael Terpin, co-founder of BitAngels and creator of the CoinAgenda conference, told IBTimes UK.

"It's increasingly clear in this current run-up that bitcoin is oversold, with a great many more investors bullish long term and seeking the right entry point than short-term traders running out of coins to sell.

"I predicted during Money 20/20 that we could go as high as $600 by year's end and I'm sticking to that prediction."

Bitcoin Bull Run

The surge follows several weeks of stagnating and steadily declining prices that saw the price of one bitcoin fall to as low as $305 in early October. 

It comes almost exactly one year after bitcoin's biggest price rally to date, when its value peaked at over $1,000 before a series of unfavourable regulatory moves and the collapse of the biggest exchange MtGox caused prices to plummet.

The reason behind bitcoin's sudden upturn in fortunes is unclear, though it comes at a time when black marketplaces on the dark web like Silk Road 2.0 are being seized and taken down. This also mirrors bitcoin's last major surge, which followed the FBI take down of the original Silk Road.

"You'd have thought (the dark site's) closure would have affected bitcoin negatively. But that hasn't happened," Dominic Frisby, financial writer and author of 'Bitcoin - The Future of Money?', told IBTimes UK. "Maybe it's a case of sell the rumour, buy the news.

"People talk about the Industrial Revolution or the Agricultural Revolution. We are at the beginning of the Financial Revolution!"

Bitcoin's volatility

Bitcoin's price is famously volatile and many detractors have claimed that its price remains over-inflated. However, one fund manager recently claimed that the value of one bitcoin could rise to as much as $1 million.

"I did some analysis a while ago," Raoul Pal told Real Vision Television. "(It) was to try and create a valuation framework that gives some value to bitcoin because nobody really knows that it's worth.

"So I said OK well let's assume it's something like gold. There's a finite amount that's been mined. The rest is underground. We kind of know how long it's going to take before all the gold is mined or before all the bitcoins.

"Put them in the same kind of equation we get a value of bitcoin and that value is a million dollars. Now, you'll never hear an analyst say this—but I don't mind this—I could be wrong by 90%, and it's still worth $100,000."

 

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Bitcoin Rallies $66 as Trend Shifts to the Upside

http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2014/11/12/bitcoin-rallies-66-trend-shifts-upside/

Bitcoin looks set to have its best day in months after prices rallied a massive $66 dollars today. After opening at $363 on BTC-E, bitcoin hesitated for a few hours around the weak resistance at $380 (mentioned in our roundup yesterday). But soon after the break, BTC/USD was trading at the $400 mark. Surprisingly, both the round $400 level and the October 14th swing high at $408.20 put up less resistance then $380. Less then 20 minutes after BTC broke $408, bitcoin hit a new high of $429 per coin. Here’s a chart of today’s parabolic rise. We are currently quoted at $412 per coin on BTC-E. Prices are trading much higher on both BitStamp and OKCoin at $427 and $430 respectively. This is a much larger price gap then the usual $2-3 dollars. It’s not unusual to see large price differences like these during periods of high volatility for bitcoin. I expect this gap to narrow back down to below $5 dollars in the next few days. Where are we going from here? With the recent massive price spike both the momentum and the trend have now shifted to the upside. To snap bitcoin’s winning streak, bears will have to push BTC prices below the $345-$350 support level. On the upside, today’s swing high at $429 may present weak resistance, followed by the Post-PayPal high at $450 ($446 to be exact). Further up, the $500 round figure may provide some resistance. Keep in mind that all the levels mentioned above are valid on BTC-E and there may be some differences if you’re using a differences platform for trading. Like we said above, usually the differences are small <$5 dollars but currently that gap is quite large at $15 dollars. Another thing to note is that BTC-E is the one who is out of step with the other exchanges so we may see arbitrage traders working to bring BTC-E prices inline with rest of the market. (This is already happening, 1 hour later this gap has already narrowed somewhat to $8 dollars, BTC-E $416, BitStamp $424.) -

Bearbeitet 12. November 2014 von segeln

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Is it November 2013 all over again? Crypto markets on fire, Bitcoin soars past $450 to 8-week high

http://dcmagnates.com/is-it-november-2013-all-over-again-crypto-markets-on-fire-bitcoin-soars-past-450-to-8-week-high/

 

The crypto markets are ablaze today, continuing their biggest winning streak since the May rally.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) climbed as high as $454 on BTC-e, a gain of 18% from 24h ago when we were pondering if BTC has the strength to overcome the $380’s. At its peak, BTC had gained 42% since bottoming at $318 just over a week ago.

BTC had not beaten $400 in nearly a month. It had not traded this high in nearly 2 months. It has since fallen sharply off its peak, now trading at $425.

The rally came unexpected, and no particularly glamorous developments have materialized that would explain it. The slope of ascent also increased suddenly, as opposed to a gradual acceleration. When setting out for $350 96h ago, there was a noticeable step up in volume, which peaked at 3700 BTC ($1.5 million) an hour 12h ago.

It is likely that a good part of the buying came from traders/bots jumping on the bandwagon once the rally was in progress, expecting to ride the wave as more traders piled in. This, as opposed to some abnormally large and uncontrolled buy orders.

The sharp drop during the past 4 hours may just be a normal retracement during these types of rallies- or may be the start of traders racing to protect their quickly earned profits. The coming 24h will give a better clue.

Litecoin finally got past $4 for the first time in a month, rising as much as 16%- roughly in line with BTC’s gains. It is currently trading at $4 even.

Counterparty has also extended its multifold gains, rising by over 50% to easily set an all-time record. News of its recreating Ethereum on Bitcoin has generated much excitement about its future potential.

All of the top 15 digital currencies, as ranked by market cap, are trading higher today, with several posting double-digit gains.

The recent winning streak may arouse nostalgia of the euphoric rise during November one year ago- it may have even been in the back of the minds of hyped traders. Differences abound, however, and traders ought to be cautious in getting caught in a familiar trap seen during the most recent rallies.

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Bitcoin Gains a Massive $87 Dollars, Altcoins Follow

https://blog.fxopen.com/bitcoin-rallies-87-dollars-altcoins-follow/

It’s been an exciting two days for cryptocurrencies. Since our last update, bitcoin rallied a massive $87 dollars, from $363 to a high of $449.91. Altcoins followed big brother bitcoin higher with Namecoin breaking the $1 parity level and Peercoin going over the $0.90 mark.

Bitcoin Rally Hits $450

The BTC rally continues unabated. On Wednesday prices broke the weak resistance at $380 and few hours later moved up to the next resistance at $400. Both $400 and $408 then quickly gave way to the strong buying pressure and in 30 minutes BTC/USD was quoted at $429 per coin.

After a small retracement to $403.99, bitcoin’s rally continued in the early Asian session today and hit a new multiday high of $449.91. We are currently trading just below this high at $444.40.

 

With the trend now shifted to the upside, more gains seem likely. It’s not a coincidence that BTC prices stopped short of $450 however. This level ($446 to be exact) was the high point of the September 23^rd post-PayPal rally and is an important resistance for bitcoin. A break higher could catapult BTC/USD toward the $500 round figure. Further up, the August 21^st swing high at $530 ($528.92) could provide resistance, followed by $550.

On the downside, the $400-$408 area should provide some support to falling prices. Further down, while the $380 former resistance may provide weak support, the important milestone for BTC will be the $345-$350 area. A move below $345 could end the current rally.

Bearbeitet 13. November 2014 von segeln

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_{More Demand Causes Bitcoin Resurgence}

_{http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2014/11/More-Demand-Causes-Bitcoin-Resurgence-November-13-2014/36842?ab=fxamb1&utm_expid=3673405-7.v9TXkD4lS1aCSQjYnNh02w.1&utm_referrer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailyforex.com%2Fforex-technical-analysis%2F2014%2F11%2Fmore-demand-causes-bitcoin-resurgence-november-13-2014%2F36842}

 

 

 

_{13 November, 2014 GMT}

 

 

_{By: Stephanie Brown}

_{According to many industry experts, Bitcoin is primed for greater expansion in the near future. Bitcoin, which has recently been associated with negative news surrounding its regulatory hurdles, such as MT Gox and Silk Route, is now rapidly emerging as the currency of choice for people, as the overall value of paper currency continues to depreciate.}

_{Countries like Greece and Argentina, which have seen their currency depreciate to astonishingly low levels, along with the imposition of capital controls, are swiftly emerging as Bitcoin consumers.}

_{The BTC/USD experienced a tremendous gain during yesterday’s trading session. The crypto-currency not only broke above its resistance zone at $371 but additionally surpassed its psychological resistance zone at $400. The upwards move was due to above average volumes, indicative of strong buying interest present at current levels. The BTC/USD was also able to move above its important 50-day moving average of $360.}

_{The price-action strength is continuing this morning, as the BTC/USD is displaying no signs of reversing. Additionally, its stochastic oscillator is comfortably sitting in the overbought zone, but is showing no signs of a retreating. Furthermore, the relative strength index for the BTC/USD is forming a higher-high which is undoubtedly a bullish symbol.}

_{Meanwhile, support for the BTC/USD is now situated at $400. Additionally, because of the price-action that was exposed yesterday, the BTC/USD reversed its lower-high and lower-low.}

_{Actionable Insight:}

_{Long the BTC/USD at current levels for a price target at $457, with a stop loss below $418.}

_{Short the BTC/USD if it moves below $400 for a price target at $371, with a stop loss above $421.}

 

 

 

Bearbeitet 13. November 2014 von segeln

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Kleine Darstellungs-Änderung:

Damit die der englischen Sprache nicht so mächtigen sich besser und schneller  zurecht finden werde ich versuchen, Long Empfehlungen wie eben darzustellen und Short Empfehlungen so.

 

Weiterhin möchte noch einmal darauf hinweisen, dass die Chart-Analysen für den kurzfristig Interessierten und Handelnden gedacht sind, was aus den meist 2-4 tägig erscheinenden TA aus der gleichen Feder /dem gleichen Autor zu ersehen ist.

Mittel- bis lang-fristige TA-Überlegungen/Hinweise werde ich im Prognosethread einstellen.

 

Happy trading!

[Majo]

Kleine Darstellungs-Änderung:

Damit die der englischen Sprache nicht so mächtigen sich besser und schneller  zurecht finden werde ich versuchen, Long Empfehlungen wie eben darzustellen und Short Empfehlungen so.

 

Weiterhin möchte noch einmal darauf hinweisen, dass die Chart-Analysen für den kurzfristig Interessierten und Handelnden gedacht sind, was aus den meist 2-4 tägig erscheinenden TA aus der gleichen Feder /dem gleichen Autor zu ersehen ist.

Mittel- bis lang-fristige TA-Überlegungen/Hinweise werde ich im Prognosethread einstellen.

 

Happy trading!

 

Finde ich TOP!!!

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Danke, Majo

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Bitcoin Analysis: Mid-Week Update Nov 13 (Manipulation?)

http://cointelegraph.com/news/112918/bitcoin-analysis-mid-week-update-nov-13-Manipulation

 

Last Week’s Review

Just a few days ago we concluded with the following:

We remain slightly Bearish long-term though acknowledge that the price may be breaking our descending trend line. Still pretty Bearish intermediate term unless we see prices move back into the US$400 range but we are a little optimistic short-term as this up move continues to break small resistance points one by one but now we are going to start approaching more established resistance. We are expecting this move to take a decent pause between now and the 50 day SMA currently around US$375.

We will also remain diligent of the following situation

Bullish: If the short-term trend has been reversed we would see resistance broken one hurdle at ta time, which currently stand at US$375, US$400, US$420. The moment we can get above US$420 it would turn around most of the views on our charts, until them we will not rush to judgment and follow what the larger trends indicate.

Bearish: We may have established a new visible low at US$315, if so then it’s a great sign. That is now our new line in the sand; any reversal at these levels needs to stay above that value. If US$315 cannot hold up the prices, we may see this year’s lows revisited.

Clearly, all those resistance hurdles mentioned in the Bullish alternate view were not expected to break all at once as they did yesterday. Additionally, if you look back at Monday’s post you will see the following sentence in the second paragraph:

So to all the people that are simply holding on to Bitcoins, this has been a good week, to those sitting with fiat currencies on exchanges or those that were short via Futures trading like 796, OKCoin and soon to go live BitMEX this would have been a disastrous day. Hindsight will always be 20/20 and now that we had one of biggest single day moves we’ve seen in a long time, all we can do is look forward and re-analyze the situation. As regular readers know this series is not meant to influence traders, it is meant to educate, so if any traders took a substantial hit today on their short positions, you need to significantly re-evaluate your position size going forward. Perhaps that will be discussed in future ‘Educational’ sections.

Of all the times this analyst hopes to be wrong is right here and we fly back up and past US$420 this week due to some of the news events that are happening at the moment.

 

 

 

Let’s take a look at the long-term chart. Last week, just as the Analysis came out, we had broken the downward trend-line by the smallest of margins, but now it looks like the downward trend has fully broken.

Notice the similarity in the weekly candle that took place in Mid-May the last time we broke a declining trend line. That week the price had gone up from US$440 to US$560, so a similar move this time would close out the week just under US$500. We can now start to consider where resistance is since we have clearly broken through everything in one day. There is small resistance right here at US$440-450 zone, as it was the level of the previous major breakout and also equal to the high reached after the PayPal announcement. Beyond that we are looking at a Fibonacci retracement line at US$500 followed by one more at US$630.

Observation (Pre-Running Trades in Future Markets)

On Tuesday just before the start of the rally, something interesting occurred on the 796 Futures Exchange. To those not familiar with this exchange or the other two mentioned above, they provide the ability to place leverage bets (up to 20x in some cases) in either up or down direction on the price of Bitcoin. Normally the size of trades that take place are in double digits like 10-50 and occasionally triple digits like 200-300, but take a look at the screen shot below, which was taken just before it was about to go off screen hence the headers are not there but you can find them here: https://796.com/weeklyFutures/market.

As you can see that is an unusually high purchase especially during a time when the price was pretty stable. What it means is that someone (or a group of people) put in an order to go long (buy) over 9,000 BTC at a price of US$369.50 at 23:44 (which is 10:44 am ET), though not the entire order got filled.

Then just after 11:00 am ET (within the hour of that large purchase) a pretty big order hit Bitfinex that had a quick shake up with a $15 range (watched it live), which was possibly used to defend the low for the day at US$360. Then, around 7 hours later the price began to take off as large number of orders started to come in. You can see this below.

So what does that all mean? This concept is very important because the 9000 btc purchase set to a limit buy order on 796 was most likely an entry in preparation for a rise in prices. This is all speculation of course, without additional data since no one is able to just watch the market continuously across multiple exchanges, so it’s possible it was an arbitrage play again another futures exchange like OKCoin. However the ability to control 9,000 BTC at 20x leverage with 5% down, means you only need to risk 450 bitcoins, but then a properly placed 2,000 bitcoin market buy order on Bitfinex can make the price jump over $20. The profits in futures exchange can be substantial in that even alone. In this case, there was continuous buying and without additional data, we can’t say when or if the 9,000 bitcoin position on 796 has been liquidated by now or whether something similar occurred on OKCoin as well to maximize the gains even more; but there are definitely people that made a lot of money. More data is also needed to see if additional large leveraged bets took place during the 7-hour gap.

The one thing to keep in mind before anyone reading this runs out and opens accounts with these exchanges is that trading in these markets is incredibly risky and is not recommended unless you have experience trading in traditional futures markets. This is an unregulated space and while many might object to what just happened and scream “manipulation” or utter the infamous words “the government and regulators should do something about this”, cooler heads must prevail because this is not the same thing as say, profiting massively by shorting the airlines pre-9/11 Trade Center attacks. This is all very new and everyone trades at their own risk, not only with their directional decisions but also by giving up the possession of your bitcoins. The tools are still primitive and eventually new exchanges will come along that will mitigate these kinds of set ups, but the beauty is, that that if someone with a day job can spot this live, that has to say something about transparency in this market unlike everything that goes on behind closed doors on Wall Street.

 

In my opinion, this entire move was trader initiated and is not a result of any big news or fundamentals.”

-Tone Vays

 

 

 

However, once the price begins to take off to the moon or crash, panic sets in and the crowd gets on board. This can last for quite a while, but if all this was trader driven as suspected, it can go down as fast as it went up so keep your eyes open and never risk wealth you are not willing to lose.

One additional thing that must be noted about exchanges like OKCoin and 796 is that the exchanges themselves do not incur any losses, so if there was a massive position that caused all the shorts to go bust with margin calls, those losses will be socialized across the winners and at the end of the week we’ll see if the winner was able to walk away with all they expected: https://796.com/weeklyFutures/settle

In a future article, we will also discuss how these futures exchange can be used to hedge your current position in order to protect against a sudden price fall in your bitcoin value.

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Hier werden auch die Gerüchte vom vorigen post aufgenommen, dass massive 20:1 (Long-)Hebel auf den chinesischen Börsen die gestrige Rally befeuert hätten:

 

Bitcoin Retraces Most of the Gains

http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2014/11/13/bitcoin-retraces-gains/

It’s been a highly volatile 24 hours for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency opened the day at $418.90 on BTC-E. From here, BTC staged a rally to hit $454 per coin around mid-day. This is an important resistance for bitcoin, as this is close to where the previous sharp rally ended. On September 23rd, the PayPal induced rally stopped abruptly at $446. The same happened today, right after prices spiked at $454 per coin, bitcoin started a major retracement that saw it give up most of the gains from the past two days. Today’s retracement was even more dramatic on the Chinese bitcoin exchanges. On OKCoin for example, prices rallied to a high of over $480 per coin before falling back close to $100 dollars to $385. There are rumors that the previous massive rally was fueled by the large 20:1 leverage offered by some of these exchanges. But whether that’s true or not, it doesn’t matter if you traded on bitcoin exchanges outside China. Most of them ”refused” to follow OKCoin higher. Both BitStamp and BTC-E for example, topped out just above $450. Price Differences Vanish One of the more interesting aspects of the major volatility we experienced today was the exploding price differentials between the Chinese and European exchanges. At one point, bitcoins at OKCoin traded at a massive $40-$50 dollar premium compared to BTC-E. We haven’t seen price differences this wide since the MtGox fiasco back in February of this year. But as quickly as the gap appeared yesterday, by the evening session today it was gone. The massive selling at OKCoin brought down prices inline with rest of the market. We are currently trading at $401 on BTC-E, $403 on OKCoin and $404 on BitStamp. -

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Bitcoin Price Rally Set To Continue Higher

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-rally-set-continue-higher/

The Bitcoin price rally looks set to continue higher after correcting Wednesday’s powerful advance. Various technical indications of continuing advance are considered in today’s analysis, as well as, the likely targets to the upside.

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin Price Rally

Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC

US Session

Monday’s messy price action changed gear on Tuesday and Wednesday when Bitcoin showed its stuff by charting a legendary price rally that advanced relentlessly for over $100.

Our moving average methodology holds and our target near $500 still looks like the inevitable destination.

The following Bitstamp 4-Hourly chart shows how the cross-over of the green 20MA and 200MA ignited a moon rocket. A new feature on the chart is an orange 100-period moving average (100MA) which will come into focus when we look at the daily candle chart in a moment.

Bitstamp 4-Hourly Chart

Above price, around $500, are two significant markers – the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the initial wave from 5 October’s decline low at $275 to $417 (Bitstamp pricing), as well as, the daily 200MA at $499.

Besides the fact that the RSI and MACD indicators are favorably disposed to additional advance, the attraction of the daily 200MA at $499 is important. Without making any assumption about its role, let’s look at the daily chart and the 200MA’s influence in the past.

Bitstamp Daily Chart

The usual 20MA (green) and 200MA (red) are displayed on the chart, but another moving average, the 100MA (orange), has been added due to it’s current role in pausing price movement.

Popular Use of Moving Averages

This analysis column often mentions the interaction of the 20MA and 200MA in confirming Bitcoin price advance. Historically, every Bitcoin price rally has advanced most powerfully when 1) price trades above the 20MA and 2) the 20MA is above the 200MA. It is self-evident that price leads and the moving averages (calculated from price) follow but in a strange feedback relationship between price and MA, traders use moving averages to gage trend. Moving average analysis is especially popular among institutoinal traders who measure “percentage above-or-below” a moving average to imply an imminent return to it. The helix-like dance between price and its moving averages is evident in many price charts and, also, in the Bitcoin price chart.

Moving Averages in the Bitcoin Price Chart

At annotation “P” price can be seen advancing above the 20MA as it bumps up against the orange 100MA from beneath. Price climbs above the 100MA but the 100MA’s downward trajectory causes it to cross below the 200MA and sympathetic trade pulls price back down to the 100MA before advance resumes. The upward bounce is presumably the result of bargain buying below $100.

Conversely (or bearishly), at annotation “Q“, trade seeks to return price to the red 200MA from an upward bounce off an ascending long-term trendline. Price bumps into the orange 100MA and consolidates around it before launching higher to its objective level at the 200MA. Notice how price essentially spent June and July of this year trading around the 200MA.

This Time Looks Similar to Last Time

The wave structure and chart configuration of the present advance is visibly similar to the advance that occurred in May of this year. The rate of advance is apparently stronger and after completing a consolidation around the 100MA it seems price will target the 200MA at $499 – at the very least. What price does once $499 has been achieved remains to be seen and will give us vital clues about what to expect.

 

At this time, it must be noted that the green 20MA on the daily chart is quite some distance below the red 200MA and relentless advance above $500 is unlikely until the MAs are closer together. The surging quality of the current advancing wave means price may overshoot the 200MA ($500) but traders should allow for the possibility that price may snap back to $500 very quickly.

 

 

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Bitcoin Passed $400 with Double Bottom, Litecoin Follows with Triple Bottom

http://www.mql5.com/en/blogs/post/160105

Crytocurrencies bitcoin and litecoin surged - last year around this time, these two virtual currencies also exploded upwards. This year, after steep corrections in both, bitcoin and litecoin are looking bullish again.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Turning Bullish: Note the price is above the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving average (SMA). These are signs that the market has turned bullish this week. At this point, if there is a pullback, we can expect buyers around 375, and also 360. Here price would be just above the cluster of SMAs, a support/resistance pivot, and a rising speedline from last week. A break below 360 would keep the mode neutral instead of bullish.
Next Target: In the bullish scenario, the upside risk in the short-term is towards a resistance pivot near 450.
 

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Hier mal eine ganz ungewöhnliche,aber sehr interessante Chart-Darstellung( Ichimoku Cloud)

 

Ichimoku Reversal: How to Ride the Bitcoin Bull

http://cointelegraph.com/news/112923/ichimoku-reversal-how-to-ride-the-bitcoin-bull-

 

In a previous article here, Ichimoku Cloud charts were used to show how one could find signs of the bearish trend ending and a bull trend resuming.

Well the signal came in super bullish fashion. One big candle on high volume pierced through the entire cloud and into bullish territory. As a rule, a piercing of the cloud is followed by some muddling around in the cloud testing support and resistance.

The conviction with which this one candle burst through the cloud changed the trend in one trading session. See chart below:

Other confirmations of the new trend have also occurred. Cloud Span A has crossed over Cloud Span B. This means the new cloud forming is bullish and should provide support as price moves higher.

As the old saying goes, old resistance now becomes support. Another buy signal was triggered when the Standard Line crossed over the Turning Line. When this happened, the Standard Line actually pierced into the cloud because of how powerful the move was. This is another bullish sign.

The final sign is volume. Volume has picked up significantly on an up day, which has not been seen this high in quite some. Volume generally precedes price. So a pick up in upside volume should be seen as bullish as well.

What this means

While a pullback is possible, the trend is now bullish.

The cloud should provide support and buying on pullbacks is probably what one should be doing. If price were to pierce back into the cloud, it would remain bullish, as the direction from which the price goes into the cloud should be used as your benchmark.

However, going into a cloud is always a warning signal of a trend change and at that point caution should be used until the direction is resolved.

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Bitcoin in Another Losing Session

http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2014/11/15/bitcoin-another-losing-session-2/

 

Bitcoin looks set to close another trading session in the red. After opening at $391, BTC/USD proceeded to rally to $403 flat. But just like yesterday, the rally got used to sell the cryptocurrency. The fall took prices below the $374-$380 support area and soon enough BTC was trading below the $370 mark at $367.67. We are currently trading at $372 per coin on BTC-E. As usual, prices are slightly higher on OKCoin at $375 and on BitStamp at $376.

While the fall is probably concerning for the bulls, the bullish trend technically remains in place until prices take out the $345-$350 support area.

 

Furthermore, to reignite the previous downtrend, bitcoin will need to break below $319 per coin.

 

On the upside, a breakout above the swing high at $454 would likely lead to accelerated gains for BTC. To avoid repetition, take a look at  our previous article for more support/resistance levels.

 

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Market Analysis 11/9 – 11/15 [Rückblick]

http://bitcoinist.net/market-analysis-119-1115/

 

Bitcoin is yet again recovering from its weekly low of $321 and is currently sitting at $360 range, around a 10% increase in the last 10 days.

 

 

We have been in the dumps for quite a while now, and it sure seems the market is turning for the good. While progress has stalled around the $370 mark, the constant volume and low prices may prove to be enticing enough for investors to get in at this position

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Is Bitcoin Really Worth all of the Risks?

http://www.forexminute.com/forex-news/bitcoin-really-worth-risks-49964

 

 

 

 

inShare0

 

Crypto-Wall Ransom-Ware, a virus that has been wreaking havoc on computer systems around the world was recently able to damage a police station’s computer system. Malicious content caused considerable damage to important files on its servers. Makers of the ransom-ware then asked the Sheriffs’ office to pay $500 in order to restore their files and disinfect the computer from the malware. Of course this a tremendous blow to the industry, which is working considerably hard towards making Bitcoins safe and easily accessible.

The BTC/USD found support at the $371 level and fell back after it was unable to sustain itself beyond the$400 psychological level.

The crypto-currency is currently seeing some semblance of buying interest at current levels but it is still experiencing a sell-off after every rally, which distinctly indicates the strong-selling momentum that is present. Meanwhile, its next resistance level is at around $421, whereas support on the downside continues to remain near $321.

 

The BTC/USD continues to trade below all important daily-moving averages, which is of course a bearish indicator. Additionally, it is imperative to state that the sell-off witnessed in the BTC/USD over the last few days was due to above average volumes, which is negatively impacting the crypto-currency. Furthermore, its stochastic oscillator for is providing a sell signal, clearly indicating a shift in momentum. Lastly, the relative strength index for the BTC/USD is additionally reversing, which many leading experts find troubling.

Actionable Insight:

 

Short the BTC/USD if it moves below $371 for an intermediate target at $321, with a stop-loss above $389.

 

Long the BTC/USD at current levels for a short term target at $421, with a stop-loss below $372.

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Despite rising 17% in November, BTC/USD 52-week return now officially negative [negativ bezieht sich nur auf das Gesamtjahresergebnis !]

http://dcmagnates.com/despite-rising-17-in-november-btcusd-52-week-return-now-officially-negative/

 

November has been bitcoin’s (BTC/USD) best month since the May rally, to date gaining 17%, with total gains of as much as 42% as of 3 days ago.

Yet 2014 has finally caught up with bitcoin, whose 12-month return is now officially negative. BTC/USD is currently trading at $380 on BTC-e. On November 16, 2013, BTC was trading near $400 in the midst of a 2-month rally seeing it skyrocket to near $1100.

Though BTC has traded lower than today’s levels at several points throughout 2014, it was still higher at those points than 52 weeks earlier, when prices could have been no higher than $260- a peak reached in April 2013. The lowest point in 2014 was $285 in earlier October.

Things get interesting when you look at October and November- the two months last year that saw BTC rise by 1000%, from around $100 to $1100. After giving up most of its value earlier in the year, it was inevitable that BTC’s 12-month return will soon turn negative in any event other than another supercharged multi-fold rally.

BTC was actually set to reach this milestone on November 11, when its price one year earlier was $328 and rising. A string of successive rises delayed the inevitable. Had BTC preserved its $450 price peak reached last Thursday, the inevitable would have happened tomorrow. One year earlier, BTC had continued to rise from $418 to $480. Two days later, it spiked as high as $820 and plunged as low as $380, after which it resumed its ascent.

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Is Bitcoin Set to Hit Canada?

http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2014/11/Is-Bitcoin-Set-to-Hit-Canada-November-17-2014/36909?ab=fxamb1&utm_expid=3673405-7.v9TXkD4lS1aCSQjYnNh02w.1&utm_referrer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailyforex.com%2Fforex-technical-analysis%2Fbitcoin-forecast%2Fpage-1%3Fab%3Dfxamb1

 

17 November, 2014 GMT

 

 

By: Stephanie Brown

Over the past couple of months, there were ramblings in the financial markets as to how Bitcoin has lost steam. Many investors avoided Bitcoin due to its high-volatility issues that it still must overcome. Additionally, improvement in world-equity markets caused the crypto-currency to plummet. However, the Bank of Canada is currently considering the pros and cons of the Bitcoin. At the current moment, it considers Bitcoin as just a financial asset, but many industry analysts believe that once Bitcoin is able escape the negative press, it should easily become more acceptable.

The BTC/USD was unable to move above its resistance as its 100-day moving-average is at $417. It recently experienced some intense selling pressure, which caused the crypto-currency to plummet well below its important support zone of $375. In today’s trading session, the BTC/USD moved above its resistance zone but was unable to sustain itself, which is negative for the digital currency going forward.

The sell-off in the BTC/USD over the past couple of days was due to heavy volumes, which is a bearish indicator, and suggests that the bears are in total control at the current moment. The stochastic oscillator for the BTC/USD is providing a clear sell signal, which is indicative of a shift in momentum towards the sell side. Lastly, the relative strength index is additionally providing a sell signal, which analysts find troubling.

Actionable Insight:

Short the BTC/USD if it moves below $373 for an intermediate target at $321, with a strict stop-loss above $390

 

Long the BTC/USD if it moves above $400 for an intermediate target at $451, with a strict stop-loss below $375.

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Bitcoin climbs 5% to trade back above the $400-Level

http://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bitcoin-climbs-5-to-trade-back-above-the-$400-level-317030

 

Investing.com

 

 

 

 

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 Bitcoin prices rallied to trade above the $400-level on Monday, as speculators returned to the market amid bullish chart signals.

 

Bitcoin rises back above the $400-level

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) touched a session high of $415.00 on Slovenia-based BitStamp earlier in the day, before trimming gains to last trade at $406.60 during U.S. morning hours, up $18.37, or 4.73%.

 

The price of a bitcoin on Bulgaria-based BTC-e climbed $18.57, or 4.87%, to trade at $400.07, while prices on Singapore-based itBit tacked on $15.11, or 3.89%, to trade at $404.00.

 

According to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index, which averages prices from the major exchanges, prices of the crypto-currency rallied 4.18%, or $16.22, to trade at $404.78.

 

Bitcoin prices have been well-supported in recent days as investors returned to the market amid bullish chart signals.

 

Prices of the virtual currency are up nearly 22% since hitting a recent low of $317.80 on November 1.

 

The price increase has been accompanied by a rise in trading volume and coincides with the recent crackdown of U.S. and European authorities against illegal websites operating on the so-called Tor network, such as online drug marketplace Silk Road 2.0.

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Bitcoin Analysis: Week of Nov 16 (Arbitrage)

http://cointelegraph.com/news/112936/bitcoin-analysis-week-of-nov-16-Arbitrage

 

Last Week’s Review

Due to the volatile action of Bitcoin, a special Mid-Week Update was published and in it we concluded with the following:

As we said over the last few weeks, a break of US$420 turns all of our time frames Bullish, but not only was that not expected in one day, it went beyond and even broke one additional level of resistance at US$440. It is never wise to do anything rash either in a crash or in a rally so the current advice to those that dare follow is to do nothing and let things settle. If you already have some bitcoins, which every reader should, just be happy the price is finally going up. If you do not and were waiting for the perfect time, right now is as good as any other if you believe in Blockchain Technology.

What to look for going into the weekend

Bullish: the continuation of momentum with the next levels of resistance at US$500, US$550 (minor since the triangle broke down a while back), $630-650 zone and US$700 for a new recovery highs.

Bearish: Since we have turned Bullish across all time frames, look for pull backs in order to pick up decent entries starting with US$400, US$375-380 and to a lesser extent US$330-350. If the price falls back under US$375 we would have to flip-flop once again from an overall Bullish stance to a Bearish one.

Clearly the primary advice to do nothing and letting things settle was sound advice. The prices have definitely pulled back and appear to have found some support in the US$375-380 zone which is also the level of the 50-day SMA and the point of the breakout that took place Tuesday night in the US (Wednesday morning in Asia).

What the reader should also realize is that these articles will never be timely enough for any reasonable trading advice. When the first sentence was put to paper on the Mid-Week update the price on Bitfinex was around US$450 (over US$470 in the futures market like 796). When it got submitted the price was around US$430 as stated at the end, but when it got published the price had already fallen to US$380. Just something to keep in mind, but we will always do our best to present the weekly state of Bitcoin with an attempt at a little forecasting.

So in a nutshell, what happened last week? Well, other than the massive price move in both directions, absolutely nothing. You can search the web for all the reasons and wild theories, but absolutely nothing fundamentally has changed. In fact when the price hit a low on Saturday of US$370, we were only $10 higher than the price of Bitcoin at publication of last weeks analysis.

In that analysis, this analyst was Bearish on the price expecting a rejection at the 50-day SMA (US$375) and a pull back to at least US$350. Traders with enough weight to move the market however, had other plans and this was explained in the Mid-Week Update and now that the week has ended we can see the results.

The socialization of losses at futures exchanges like 796 were massive and the highest up to this point, as the winners had to compensate for a 2,020 Bitcoin loss by the exchange as the counterparty, leading to 25% of the gains being deducted from winning trades. This concept will be expanded upon in an upcoming article, but just to make something clear, there is nothing inherently wrong with this as long as the traders are aware and I’m sure many would agree that when the other option is for the exchange to become illiquid and shut down, this might be the lesser of two evils.

Looking at the weekly chart, the break of the downward Trend-Line is clear, but the candle that has formed is known as a ‘shooting star’, which is usually not a Bullish sign. You will also notice how this breakout is very different form the one that took place in May because that one closed the week near the highs.

So what is the Long-Term view telling us? It’s saying to be cautiously Bullish. As long as we remain above this trend line everything is looking good long term,

 

but if we fall back bellow US$330, or perhaps even US$350, we would be forces to flip-flop once again for the 3rd time in 6 weeks as to the future long-term direction of Bitcoin.

 

Es folgt dann für Interessierte

Education (The Concept of Arbitrage)