Bitcoin-Chartanalyse

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Bullish or Bearish: Bitcoin Price, Where Yer Going?

http://coinstackr.com/bullish-or-bearish-bitcoin-price-where-yer-going-18/1417/

 

Exec Summary Even though the long-term uptrend broke, there may still be a more moderate uptrend in place (needs more confirmation however)
Medium-term prices are likely to keep following a slight downtrend, support is expected at around USD 440
Currently prices are ranging between USD 490 and 520

Short-term, da drunter medium- und Long-term:

 

 

 

Trading Ideas

For short-term traders: Squeezing approx. 5% profit by trading the short-term range from USD 490 to 520 should be possible in the days ahead.

Looking at the lower timeframes (e.g. the 30min chart) is necessary to time the entry once prices approach the upper or lower end of the trading range.

 

For medium-term traders: As prices are halfway between the medium-term downtrend (see [2.1]) and the support level at USD 440 (see [2.2]), entering now would be gambling.

 

When prices break out of the short-term trading range, you can trade the breakout (target being either USD 440 or the downtrend line). Or wait until prices test either of the two levels and trade a retracement for example.

 

Bearbeitet 18. August 2014 von segeln

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_{Bitcoin Trading- BTC/USD Technical Analysis, Aug 18: $480 Support Broken}

_{http://dcmagnates.com/bitcoin-trading-btcusd-technical-analysis-aug-18-480-support-broken/}

 

BTC continues to fall further behind its 200-day moving average, slow to keep up following the long stretches of flat trading in June and July. It is now a whopping 17% below this level, the biggest offset since late May during the height of its rally.

Having slipped below $545 last week, it was assessed that there are really no technical lines of defense between current prices and $450, the last stable trading level prior to the May Rally.

 

 

 

Flash Crash on BTC-e: Bitcoin hits $309 as $3.4 million worth of BTC dumped

http://dcmagnates.com/flash-crash-on-btc-e-bitcoin-hits-309-as-3-4-million-worth-of-btc-dumped/
 

Minutes ago, the Bitcoin price on BTC-e plummeted to as low as $309- a loss of 36% in about 10 minutes. The drop appears to have been caused by a massive sell quantity of 7300 BTC- worth about $3.4 million- prior to the drop.

The price has now recovered to $447, and rising.

Other exchanges did not experience the same drop. On Bitstamp and Bitfinex, the price declined by about 5% as traders became unnerved by the price action on BTC-e.

It is possible that the dump originated from a trader looking for a quick exit as crypto markets have undergone one of their roughest stretches in recent Memory.

 

 

 

Bearbeitet 18. August 2014 von segeln

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Bitcoin Price is Record Low: The Best Time to Buy Bitcoins?

http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/bitcoin-price-record-low-best-time-buy-bitcoins/2014/08/18

 

Bitstamp is one of the world’s largest Bitcoin Exchanges, and by looking at their order book, I can’t help but get the feeling that the downtrend may end very soon. As you can see, the active buy orders are much higher in volume than the active sell orders. This means: It will take much less volume to push the price upwards than downwards with the current active orders.

 

 

 

The last two Bitcoin price rallies where fueled by the Cyprus bank crisis and what I call the Chinese Fall. The Bitcoin price fell each time after the price rally, and stabilized a bit higher than it was previously. One might think that the price again has stabilized after the Chinese Fall, and is now just experiencing a short drop before a new rally begins. The question is: will there be any significant happening that will fuel a new price rally? And will there ever be a new Rally?

 

Bearbeitet 19. August 2014 von segeln

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Bitcoin Chart Analysis – The End of Trend

http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/bitcoin-chart-analysis-end-trend/2014/08/19

That BTC/USD will rally from its lows is generally expected. That Friday’s catalyst will be the start of such a rally remains to be seen. Considering the market’s age-old tendency to sell into a significant event, we could very well see the downtrend continue to one of the levels stated above. Due to uncertainty, as to which level exactly the market will end up sinking to, traders may do well to adopt a Martingale strategy, here at the lows, for scaling into a long position (see the section: Market Bottom Strategy.)

Rather than trying to call an exact bottom, it is advisable to anticipate reversal with buy orders placed above price. When a rally ignites – whether before or after Friday – it is likely to be fast and furious

 

.

 

 

Coinbase Friday

Significantly, news has emerged that Coinbase intends to purchase large amounts of bitcoin on Friday 22 August. As far as buy signals go, this announcement will serve as a sure-fire catalyst for a price surge to the upside.

The Bank of Japan announcement of guaranteed stimulus measures back in April 2013 comes to mind. In that scenario, the market knew that the announcement – if it confirmed expectations – would trigger a buying frenzy. For several weeks prior to the announcement the Yen currency pairs descended in a stair-step fashion. Market participants liquidated Yen pair positions in anticipation of lower prices to open buy orders. Finally, on the day, at the pre-announced time, BoJ confirmed stimulus of 1.4 trillion Yen and an initial three-day surge launched the Yen into a rally that lasted over a year.

It would be ill-advised to expect the BTC/USD market to react in exactly the same way but that episode from history serves as a useful reference. Given the excitability of the Bitcoin market, it may embark on a rally prior to Friday 22 August, or it could take a profit-taking dip just subsequent. The best traders can do is to be prepared and ready for such outcomes.

 

Bearbeitet 19. August 2014 von segeln

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Bitcoin Outlook- August 19, 2014

http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2014/08/Bitcoin-Outlook--August-19,-2014/33804?ab=fxamb1&utm_expid=3673405-3.Srt7y3QJQ6atzdfM5cbOIg.1&utm_referrer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailyforex.com%2Fforex-technical-analysis%2Fbitcoin-forecast%2Fpage-1

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^{BTC Price Analysis: Mid-Week Update
http://cointelegraph.com/news/112295/btc-price-analysis-mid-week-update}

 

<sup>Conclusion

 
The price is starting to bounce back right now and might be significantly different in a blink of an eye.  For the moment we are lowering the bounce target to US$500, which has now become resistance vs. the support it was just a few days ago.
A new range has been established between US$440 and US$500. Allow some time for the markets to settle down and dictate the next move.  The long term chart is still considered healthy as long as we remain above this US$440 mark, but in case it give way, look for US$340-360 range as the next line of technical defense. Just like it was said a few days ago, unless faith in Bitcoin is being lost, nothing should go straight down so this oversold condition is due for a bounce even if just temporary, but we have lowered this expectation to US$500 before re-evaluating the situation.</sup>
 

 

 

 

 

 

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Bitcoin Price On The Brink of a Possible Reversal

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article46964.html

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Von mir aus dem Prognose-thread:

 

Da die ganzen swap-margin-call-Spielchen nun vorbei sind wird das nicht mehr so schnell in naher Zukunft passieren.

Dennoch wird es noch ein paar mal mehr so passieren,allerdings auf höheren Kurslevels

 

Derartiges kann natürlich keine TA erfassen.

Wobei man folgendes beobachten konnte:

am 24.-26.Juli kreuzten die 7d,50d und 100 d EMAs den langfristigen 200d EMA (fast) im Sinne eines death cross.Also am  24.Juli ein ganz deutlich bärisches Zeichen. Wer zu diesem Zeitpunkt (bei etwa 600 $) ausgestiegen ist,konnte am 18.August bei etwa 450 $ wieder Coi9ns einsammeln (6 h Einstellung, zum nachverfolgen)

 

Im Moment kreuzen die schnellen EMAs (7,50 und bald 100) den 200 er EMA von unten nach oben. Dies ist nun ein sehr bullisches Zeichen.( 30 min Einstellung)

Mal sehen ,wie hoch und wie lange das geht

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Bitcoin Outlook- August 21, 2014

http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2014/08/Bitcoin-Outlook--August-21,-2014/33875

 

The Bitcoin bulls breathed a sigh of relief as they witnessed follow up buying emerge yesterday which confirmed that there were buyers available at lower levels. BTC/USD had witnessed a panic sell off a couple of days ago which had seen prices plummet to levels of $310 in intraday trade but bounce back from the lows after buying emerged at lower levels. Many traders feared that if follow up would not have taken place in yesterday’s trade the downtrend would have continued and prices would have headed lower. For traders, the next level of resistance for BTC/USD will be around 20 day exponential moving average currently at $543 and a close above that would be a huge boost in near term direction for the digital currency. The momentum indicators for the BTC/USD are both showing first signs of a reversal and therefore traders would be closely watching the resistance zone at $543

 

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Bitcoin prices firm up above $500 as recovery continues

http://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bitcoin-prices-firm-up-above-$500-as-recovery-continues-304711

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Bitcoin Trading- BTC/USD Technical Analysis, Aug 21: Will the rally continue?

http://dcmagnates.com/bitcoin-trading-btcusd-technical-analysis-aug-21-will-the-rally-continue/

 

nur der Text ist interessant:

In short, it’s a tough call. There are factors pointing in both directions. BTC/USD is coming off a rise of 10% within 24h and a 67% recovery from its flash crash to $309 on BTC-e. The question is if the rally is slowing down and Bitcoin settling for the mid-term, effectively doing enough justice to mirror the pace and magnitude from the way down while recouping its losses.

Or, are the bears out of the market, having dumped their holdings on heavy volume- and we are on our way back to the low $600′s, a stronghold of stability for a longer duration than the recent downtrend. That $600 era’s effects are still felt now, the 200-day day moving average (MA) barely flinching from the recent sell-off, hovering around $570.

 

 

 

und

 

 

Not counting the low from the flash crash, BTC’s slowing down in its recovery near the 61.8% retracement level can also be of technical significance and may signal a pause to the recovery

 

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Bitcoin Awaiting a Breakout from the Intra-session Consolidation
http://www.fxpips.com/bitcoin-awaiting-breakout-intra-session-consolidation/
 
 
Why is the bearish outlook preferred based on the 4H Chart?
 
 



1) The moving averages are sloping down and are in bearish alignment. Price has come back above the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), but is still below the 100-, and 200-period SMAs.

2) The 4H RSI reading is stalling at 60. If it can stay south of 60, the bearish momentum from the previous downswing is still maintained.

 
So, with the bearish bias, a break below 510 should at least open up the 442 low on the week. When you look at the 1H chart, you see the intra-session consolidation more clearly. You can see that even a break below 510 might be the first sign of bearish continuation, but would not kill the bullish outlook in the 1H chart just yet. There would be another challenge around 490, which is reinforced by a rising trendline, the 100-hour SMA, and a support/pivot area. 




Also , we should see the 1H RSI at least break below 40 to show that the near-term momentum is no longer bullish. If price instead holds above 490 and these support factors, bitcoin would be at the crossroad between developing a short-term bullish outlook against a medium-term bearish mode.

If price breaks above 533, look for sellers again around 550-560, which is a previous support area. However, at this point, if the 4H RSI has popped up to 70, we should limit our future bearish outlook as the trend may have shifted from bearish to neutral if not bullish.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis – Hints of a New Uptrend Still Dubious
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/bitcoin-price-analysis-hints-of-a-new-uptrend-still-dubious/2014/08/27?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=bitcoin-price-analysis-hints-of-a-new-uptrend-still-dubious
 

Bitcoin price analysis provides some evidence that a new uptrend may be in effect. However, recent price action does not show the impulsive surge that normally follows a trend change. The analysis below lays out the evidence on the chart and forecasts the likely paths price may take.

 Up-Side Szenario:
 




Down-Side Szenario:

 

 

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Bitcoin Trading- BTC/USD Technical Analysis, Aug 26: Recovery looking solid, $550 reachable within 10 days

http://dcmagnates.com/bitcoin-trading-btcusd-technical-analysis-aug-26-recovery-looking-solid-550-reachable-within-10-days/

 

Chartbild nicht interessant

 

The current profile during the rise is largely mirroring that of the decline, lending further support to the notion of a “natural recovery” back above $550 within 7-10 days.

Now trading at $507, the pair has crept back up to within 8% of its 200-day moving average, now worth $550- the price to beat. This is the lowest offset held for any reasonable duration during the last 10 days of trading.

 

 

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Expected Movements Today
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/bitcoin-price-analysis-expected-movements-today/2014/08/29?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=bitcoin-price-analysis-expected-movements-today

 

The visual pattern is unmistakable – a contracting consolidation moving sideways. We’ve witnessed this pattern twice since the beginning of July, and its conclusion has been the same each time: a drop, as if over a cliff, and each time by at least $20 within an hour or two. At the extremes of each contracting wave price can be seen to equalize amongst exchanges, as shown in the snapshot on the right (BTC-e (top), BitFinex, Bitstamp and BTC-China (bottom).)

 
 
Bitstamp 15 min Chart :
 

The a-b-c-d-e count on the chart anticipates a continuation of the sideways grind. Eventually, the Bollinger Bands on the MACD would squeeze to a tight spring, followed by an energetic break out of the zone of contraction.

 

 

As discussed in the larger analysis, we would expect price to break out to the downside. Over the weekend, analysis will make a critical assessment of this view.

In the meantime, price can be expected to continue its larger sideways course with an additional low to $490 possible and an eventual three-wave ascent to the $520 area to complete wave e. Tthe BitFinex orderbook shows a large order in excess of 1000 BTC that is seemingly scaring trade downward. Will it hold or will the mysterious owner remove it?

Invalidation of this view – that sideways consolidation is in effect – will occur if price breaks north of $530 to test the upper descending trendline – now a barrier to Bitcoin’s tendency to travel to 1.618 extensions.

 

Bearbeitet 29. August 2014 von segeln

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^{Bitcoin Continues Coiling; Watch for Breakout}http://www.fxpips.com/bitcoin-continues-coiling-watch-breakout/

 

^{Notice the clustering of the 200-, 100-, and 50-hour simple moving averages (SMAs) around the 510 handle. We can say that 510 is this week’s “fair” or “equilibrium price”.}

When you look at the 4H chart, you can see that price is also coiling, making higher lows and lower highs. The pivots do not help form a triangle, but it is the same kind of dynamic – directionless and losing volatility.

A this point, we should care both about volatility and direction. For example, the week ended with a bullish push that broke above the cluster of moving averages, and a falling trendline from this week as you can see back in the 1H chart. However, as price is still within this week’s range, the rally means nothing. In fact the failure to reach back to the lows on the week suggest coiling is still going on.

So, we should look at volatility next week, and only take a sign of direction on a break above or below this week’s range

 

 

 

 

 

Now, above 523, there could be resistance at 534. Below 497, there is support at 487. A break from this range increases the chances of a trend development. Now, if price does not break that outer range, watch how price acts when it comes back to the middle of the range around 510, now the central pivot. If a bullish attempt pulls back but stays above 510, there is still a bullish development. If a bearish attempt pulls back and stays below 510, the bearish outlook is still in play.  A bearish outlook has the 442 low in sight, while a bullish one will be challenged as early as 555-570 area, a previous support area.

 

 

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Bitcoin Price $500 as Current Downside Barrier
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article47113.html
 

Briefly: we support long speculative positions in Bitcoin, stop-loss at $440, take-profit at $620

.

 

On BitStamp, we saw a move down yesterday. This was a second day of depreciation. Such a situation might naturally evoke the question whether anything has actually changed as far as the short-term outlook. This is the question our readers probably ask themselves and we understand where it’s coming from and also ask ourselves similar questions and check them against the current market conditions to arrive at conclusions. Today is no different and we provide you with our opinion on where the market is headed.

The move yesterday itself was nothing special as far as its strength, percentagewise and volume-wise, is concerned. It was a day of depreciation but nothing more. Very much like what happened on the day before yesterday. Let’s refer to the commentary we posted yesterday:

On BitStamp, we saw a move down yesterday on increased volume, but not increased enough to make it significant.

 

On the long-term BTC-e chart, there are no apparent changes but the consolidation around $500 is getting all the more visible. In recent days, Bitcoin has frequently tested $500 (on each day since Aug. 22 except last Wednesday) but hasn’t stayed below this level long enough to make the outlook bearish.

The volume levels are depressed which might suggest that we’re going through a period of relative calmness but, as usually, this might only be calm before the storm. Currently, we’re still below the medium-term tend line (upward sloped black line in the chart) but above the long-term trend line (negatively sloped line starting at the left vertical line). In light of the recent rebound from around $300 and the fact that the currency is holding up above $500, it seems that Bitcoin might return to $550, and afterwards to the recent trend line (downward sloping black line ending around $600). While this is not certain, a bet on higher prices seems worth a shot at this time.

Summing up, in our opinion long speculative positions are the way to go now.

 

Trading position (short-term, our opinion): long, stop-loss at $440, take-profit at $620.

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Analysis: Bitcoin Price Still on a Decline?

http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/analysis-bitcoin-price-still-decline/2014/09/01?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=analysis-bitcoin-price-still-decline

 

 

Chart selber ist nicht so wichtig

 

 

 

Comments About the Current Bitcoin Price Chart

It is clear from the description above that there are many confluences of levels obtained from pivots, Fibonacci extensions, channel trendlines and the 200-period moving average. Multiple level overlaps of this kind are not unusual, but the number of such confluences concentrated around this region is noticeable. It may be that we see an uptick in volatility and that price visits all of them in the coming week, or that price leaves this contentious area by evasively maneuvering away from it.

For now, a bearish bias persists but first price must breach the trendline where buyers are piling in (see BitFinex orderbook on the right). On various popular exchanges, this level is currently at:

• $473 Bitstamp
• $472 BTC-e
• $471 BitFinex
• 2,900 CNY BTC-China & Huobi

 

•  

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Bitcoin Trading- BTC/USD Technical Analysis, Aug 31: Bitcoin hanging on amid abnormal volume

http://dcmagnates.com/bitcoin-trading-btcusd-technical-analysis-aug-31-bitcoin-hanging-on-amid-abnormal-volume/

Some abnormally high bitcoin (BTC) trading volume on BTC-e has some traders wondering what will happen next. Over 35,000 BTC ($17 million) has been traded in the past 6 hours, by far exceeding the roughly 18,000 traded during the flash crash. It is the highest such figure since a volatile period in mid-April when BTC/USD also entered $300 territory.

The 6h volume comprises a major chunk of the entire global 24h trading volume, typically 100,000-120,000 BTC and usually dominated by China’s top exchanges.

 

Bitcoin now trades at a 12.5% discount to its 200-day moving average, now $550. $480 is also BTC’s short-term support level, which if broken, can lead to declines back down to $460.

 

 

Zu BTC-e High trading Volume hier:

 

Malfunctioning Bitcoin Trader Bot Causes Extremely High Volume on the Bitcoin Exchange BTC-e

http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/malfunctioning-bitcoin-trader-bot-causes-extremely-high-volume-bitcoin-exchange-btc-e/2014/08/31

Bearbeitet 1. September 2014 von segeln

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Bitcoin Trading- BTC/USD Technical Analysis, Sept 2: Bitcoin slips to 10-day low

http://dcmagnates.com/bitcoin-trading-btcusd-technical-analysis-sept-2-bitcoin-slips-to-10-day-low/

 

nur der Text ist interessant:

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has slipped again, now trading at $475 on BTC-e, a new 10-day low.

With its earlier low of $464, Bitcoin had been trading at a 15% discount to its 200-day moving average, now down to $546. This gap matches that of 2 weeks ago when the price also hung around its support level of $480 before its flash crash, and is the widest observed in regular trading since the May rally.

The current range of $470-480 is therefore an important support level, both for price and momentum. Should it be broken, the next line of defense is the $450 range, which had offered nearly a month of solid support and has not been breached during normal trade.

During the recent downturn, the price on BTC-e has been trending more closely toward those on other major exchanges like Bitstamp and Bitfinex. Previously, Bitcoin usually traded at a 1.5% discount on BTC-e relative to its peers. Currently, the prices are less than $1 apart.

The convergence is interesting in light of irregular trading behavior that has transpired on the exchange during the past month. Earlier this week, trading volume exploded to over 10x typical levels, without having a major effect on the traded price. A trading bot gone wild is suspected. Two weeks ago, margin calls are widely believed to have caused the price to crash to $309 within minutes, after which it immediately recovered back to $460.

 

 

[Wochen-Umfrage]

...........Wer das verfolgen will,braucht nur den Link anzuklicken und dann aktualisieren(rechts Pfeil load new bars)

Man kann dann schön sehen,ob die Rallybeschleunigung in Gefahr ist oder wo in den nächsten Tagen Unterstützungen dieser Trendlinie sind

 

https://www.tradingview.com/v/H30dvRc9/

 

 

Edit: ja,ja,ich weiß: die gute "alte" Rallybeschleunigung, die ich aufgrund eines Fehlers beim zeichnen frühzeitig "beerdigt" hatte.

Nun erlebt sie ein Revival erster Klasse.

 

 

tja und dann gings runter ...

interessant  alte postings  anzusehen

 

laufend bulische Prognosen so wie diese https://www.tradingview.com/v/6m3YoK6x/

[AdrianMonk]

tja und dann gings runter ...

interessant  alte postings  anzusehen

 

laufend bulische Prognosen so wie diese https://www.tradingview.com/v/6m3YoK6x/

 

 

Bei der TA versucht man eigentlich nur, anhand von vergangenen Daten irgendwelche Informationen zu finden, die Aussagen über den weiteren Kursverlauf geben KÔNNTE. Einige der oben angegebenen Bilder sollen eigentlich auch die Psychology des Marktes wiederspiegeln. Na ja, wenn man dann von einer geringen Marktteilnehmerzahl ausgeht, hat das die gleiche Aussage wie Kaffeesatzlesen.

 

Adrian

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Bitcoin Trading- BTC/USD Technical Analysis, Sept 3: BTC holding ground for now but appears vulnerable

http://dcmagnates.com/bitcoin-trading-btcusd-technical-analysis-sept-3-btc-holding-ground-for-now-but-appears-vulnerable/

Bitcoin (BTC) is hanging in there but one gets the feeling that the recovery has lost steam and that it is sitting in a vulnerable position.

It is currently trading at $471 on BTC-e. It dipped to $465 twice within the past 24h, during which it has not gotten its head above $480. A slight staggered downtrend has formed over the past 60h; we are seeing successively lower peaks and troughs.

The $470-480 support range, earlier noted for its importance in maintaining stability, has mostly eroded. As such, BTC may be signalling a break from its 15% offset from the 200-day moving average. This offset had also offered support from a momentum perspective. If broken, there isn’t much historical support above $450.

 

If a genuine turnaround is to take place, a prolonged bottoming in the $470-490 range must first materialize and continue for 1-2 weeks.

The spread between BTC-e and Bitstamp has widened, perhaps a return to “back to normal” trading conditions. The difference between the two is about $4, or 0.85%. Volume is low, about 100 BTC per hour, which has become the new norm during flat trade.

 

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Bitcoin Price Might Move Shortly
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article47164.html
 

Briefly: we don’t support any short-term positions in the Bitcoin market.

 

On BitStamp, the move down yesterday was not strong. Neither the close nor the volume itself suggested an overly bearish outlook. On the other hand, a reversal to around $490 was denied which indicated that strength was not the major characteristic of the market at that time.

Let’s bring up our yesterday’s comments:
The weekend brought changes on BitStamp. Bitcoin depreciated on Saturday but really plummeted on Sunday with a visible increase in volume. The move concluded below $500, close to $480, around the closes seen at the recent bottom. This seems like a lot of factors to consider, possibly adding to a bearish outlook. Is the outlook actually bearish now? We follow with our comments clarifying the current situation.
(…)
Compared with that, the move yesterday was definitely a visible change in the recent trend. A change to the downside, that is. The depth of the slide is relatively significant but what really reinforces it is the surge in trading we saw. This makes the move below $500 all the more significant and possibly having implications for investors.
These remarks are very much up to date in light of what we’ve seen today (this is written around 9:00 a.m. ET). We’ve seen some appreciation, which brings about the question whether Bitcoin is actually rebounding. This question comes only naturally to Bitcoin investors and so it also presents itself to us and we’re very carefully considering the implications of today’s price action before giving you our clear opinion on the matter.
The move has been up today but the volume hasn’t actually followed. A possible decrease in volume (the day is not over yet) points to the possibility that the move we’re seeing now is merely a short rebound and that the main direction is down.
This seems to be the case as now Bitcoin has stayed below $500 for some time and the currency actually looks like it’s getting anchored below this level, at least for the time being. If Bitcoin stays below this level, we might see a further slump below $450, which coincides with the level of the recent local bottom at $442. Any more depreciation today or tomorrow could be starting sign for such a move.

 
 

 

On the long-term BTC-e chart the situation remains basically unchanged from yesterday. This means our recent commentary is still valid:

There was a move down on BTC-e, visible even from the long-term perspective. Bitcoin went below $500 in a first decisive move in days. The magnitude of the slide itself is, however, only secondary as far as the importance of the move was concerned. Why is that?

A look at the spike in volume is pretty much self-explanatory here. While 1,164 bitcoins were traded on Saturday, Sunday saw 41,590 (!!!) bitcoins change hands. A 3,473% increase, if you will. This activity has been blamed on a trading bot gone wild. This might be the case, but the most important short-term clue for investors here is that the price hasn’t actually completely recovered following the spike in volume, whatever the reason. Because of that, it seems that we’ve actually witnessed an important change in the short-term outlook.

The move below $500 on BitStamp and BTC-e, the volume and the fact that we haven’t seen a recovery suggests that the short-term outlook has just deteriorated. Consequently, we don’t support any short-term speculative positions in the Bitcoin market at this time.

The appreciation we’ve seen today doesn’t alleviate the concerns that Bitcoin might be on the brink of a new decline following a move below $500 which is now more than visible. The volume levels we’ve seen today don’t inspire too much confidence and project and image of a weak corrective move to the upside.

At present, it seems that unless we see a move above $500, the expected direction for the next move is down. We’re close to a situation when opening short speculative positions might be the way to go but we’d prefer to see where Bitcoin closes today before opting for that.

Summing up, in our opinion no speculative positions should be kept in the Bitcoin market now.

 

Trading position (short-term, our opinion): no positions.

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Bitcoin Outlook- Sept. 3, 2014

http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2014/09/Bitcoin-Outlook-Sept-3-2014-/34170

BTC/USD had a very flat session yesterday. The formation of a doji candlestick on the daily charts shows the indecision between buyers and sellers. BTC/USD has traded in a very narrow range over the last couple of days post the selloff witnessed on Friday where it opened gap down. The momentum indicator for the BTC/USD has given a fresh sell signal, which is confirmation of the shift of momentum towards the sell side. The resistance for the BTC/USD on the upside comes near the $496 level, which is also its 20-day moving average. On the downside, the support comes at around $455. Only a breach on either side would provide traders and investors with a clear picture of the future direction for the digital currency.

Actionable Insight:

Short BTC/USD if it closes below $455 with a short-term target at $380 with a stop loss at $475