Bitcoin-Chartanalyse

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Bitcoin Seeking a Mini Price Bottom Attempt
http://www.fxpips.com/bitcoin-seeking-mini-price-bottom-attempt/

The 1H chart shows bitcoin in a bearish market.
1) The 200-, 100-, and 50-hour simple moving averages (SMAs) are sloping down, in bearish alignment, spreading apart, and above price action. This means the bearish trend is looking strong on all cylinders.
2) The RSI dipped below 20 and is holding below 60, which shows maintenance of the bearish momentum.
Double Bottom: To begin the week, bitcoin was still bearish but held above 472.60. After yesterday’s price action, btcusd looks like it has formed a double bottom. However, price was held below 489 and below the 50-hour SMA. Today, as price rallies back above 480, bitcoin looks like it wants to confirm the mini double bottom that has formed in the past few sessions.
Bullish Correction Scenario: A break above 490 would open up a very short-term bullish outlook against the prevailing bearish mode. In this scenario, we can expect some upside risk toward 500, and maybe toward 503, and the falling trendline from last week’s high at 523. A bearish market should respect this 500-503 area as resistance, which will be reinforced by the 200-hour SMA. On the 4H chart, you will also see the 100-, and 50-period SMAs in this area. A break above 505 would therefore put away the current bearish outlook, and put bitcoin in consolidation mode if not a bullish reversal.

 
 

Looking at the 4H chart, we see that if price indeed pops up above 505, then the pressure is on the 523-534 resistance area. A break above 540 will be needed to esbalish a price bottom and shelve the bearish outlook in the medium-term. However, a bullish outlook outside of the short-term will have to wait until a break above 600.

On the other hand, if the bearish trend continues, and price breaks below 472, the next support is the 442 August-low. Below that, there is an April-May low at 420, but the downside risk would also be toward the 340 low on the year

 

 

 

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Bitcoin market update 9-02-2014; bear flag

http://www.ibankbitcoins.com/

 

Bitcoin prices for the last 2 days have been constrained within a bear flag. If you are not familiar with the flag formation, check out the flag guide. At this point, there is nothing to do but wait for the next breakout. As you know, bear flag is a continuation pattern, kind of like a pause in the market before continuing the trend. Target is 440 on the usd or 2800cny, the previous low.

 

 

Bitcoin, bear flag on the hourly, waiting for breakout.

 

This is a continuation pattern. Although there is no certainty which way market will go; up or down. A new low below the flag is a sign for further downward pressure.

 

 

 

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Bitcoin remains below $500 in rangebound trade

http://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bitcoin-remains-below-$500-in-rangebound-trade-307283

 

Bitcoin prices remained below the key $500-level on Wednesday, as market players were reluctant to open new positions while awaiting the next catalyst to influence price direction.

 

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Consolidation Before Break-Out
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-analysis-consolidation-break/
 

 

Update 16h30 UTC
This update was posted after publication of the main article which continues below.
Price has launched out of the consolidation area after a gentle start. As described below, trade has paused at the weekly pivot level near $492 and should move sideways-to-down while the market mulls its next move. $493 is the current level of the 200-period moving average and trade breaking above this level will be another bullish sign.
The next target of advance would be the green upper channel trendline (currently at $505,) followed by the weekly pivot resistance level, R1, at $510.

 
 


 

Moving Average Compression

The MACD (pronounced “Mac D”) indicator is a measure of the distance between two moving averages. A MACD indicator that keeps close to zero results from a lack of momentum in price action – when the moving averages are close together – and this phenomenon is typically a prequel to a price break-out and subsequent ramp-up in volatility.

The Bitcoin chart favors this method of starting price moves as can be seen from the daily BTC-China

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bollinger Band Squeeze

The Bitcoin price chart presently looks the same across exchanges, and the diminishing trading range is causing Bollinger Band contraction at all timeframes. At the time of writing, price tested the upper limit of the current range – only to fall back inside within a few minutes. The following hourly Bitstamp chart shows the sideways consolidation, as well as its effect on the blue Bollinger Bands that envelope MACD in the bottom panel.

 

 

 

 

Break-out could occur to the upside or to the downside, and there is no failsafe method for knowing which way the initial move out of the narrow channel will go. However, a look at a few orderbooks offers clues about probable direction. BTC-China is shown on the left and BitFinex on the lower right.

Our analysis still has valid decline targets at $460, $412 and $320 down below. Looking at the exchange orderbooks, we can see that the bears are not going to have an easy task getting to $460, nevermind lower.

The upside is not unencumbered either, but the picture looks very different from a few weeks ago when there was a more-or-less permanent wall of sell orders above price at all times.

An upside break-out should travel impulsively toward $500 – with $492 being a logical target at the weekly Pivot.

 

 

 

 

 

Summary

Sideways consolidation can continue for several more trading sessions before a break-out occurs. Additionally, price may break-out in one direction only to reverse and head in the opposite direction. The best tactic is to stay out of the market until a direction is confirmed.

 

 

 

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Analysis: Bitcoin Price Bumping Up Against Resistance
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/analysis-bitcoin-price-bumping-against-obstacles/

The Bitcoin price is set to make another high as it approaches $500 in the coming trading sessions. Another marginal low may follow, but we are carefully watching the manner in which price makes its next high for clues that the decline may be over – and has been “over” for several months.

Channeled Bitcoin Price Action

Bitstamp 15-Minute Chart
Price touched the lower channel trendline at label “5″ on 2 September and bounced $15 higher within a few hours. Subsequent price action failed to make a lower low as price began moving sideways and up. By last night, it was clear that a break-out was imminent and a few hours into the US trading session, price kissed the 15-minute 200-period moving average goodbye and surged over $17 in a few minutes.
Advance halted at $493 – the triple confluence of the weekly pivot level; the 1.618 extension of the first wave bounce off the channel bottom, as well as the (then current) 200-period moving average (on the hourly chart.) Subsequent price action has traced out a three-wave correction that may extend to five waves, but a correction nonetheless – giving us the expectation of another high at the 2.618 Fibonacci extension at $508.

 

Additional High – Low Ceiling

An obstacle and potential ceiling to achieving $508 is formed by the descending upper channel trendline (dark green) currently cutting through $503. It is possible that price may reverse from this trendline and head back down to the bottom of the channel for the last time. Although this outcome seems unlikely it cannot be ruled out until price crosses north of the upper trendline.

Upside Channel Breach

In the event that price action breaks out of the channel and intends to advance there will be plenty of resistance to overcome between $500 and $512. The chart above shows the concentration of the 2.618 Fib extension, the weekly pivot R1, as well as a recent high (on 29 August) in this area. Additionally, the R1 level and the 50% retracement level of the entire advance since April overlap at $510.31. It is going to take a fight to navigate through all of this resistance, and the result will most likely be prolonged sideways action – which could include a reversal back to $500 in the process

 

 

 

 

Largest Immediate Bitcoin Orders

Looking at the BitFinex orderbook, the five largest orders above price (left) and below price (right) show even bull/bear interest with a slight bullish bias due to that 514 BTC buy order waiting at $480. It’s unlikely to be filled before price advances again since during price action, buyers are usually entering the market via market orders, in a classic fear-of-missing-the-upside impulse buying manner.

 

 

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Analysis: Bitcoin Price Forecast For The Week Ahead

http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/analysis-bitcoin-price-forecast-week-ahead/

 

Daily Bitcoin Price Chart BTC/CNY Volume

Firstly, looking at the Exchange Volume by Currency diagram (courtesy Bitcoincharts.com) it is evident that the bulk of combined exchange orders are transacted in Chinese Yuan.

This is significant because, as circled on the daily BTC-China chart (below); a 2014 record daily volume of buy orders had been traded at BTC-China on 21 August. Whilst not conclusive evidence that another low is impossible, this surge in volume is a sign that bullish sentiment was capitulated from that August low.

 

 

Moving Averages

In the chart above, the blue trendlines drawn above and below the past eight months’ market action shows a contraction of the trading range. The decreasing momentum is also evident from the contracting Bollinger Bands on MACD in the lower indicator frame. We had previously explored this phenomenon and how the Bitcoin Price Chart employs it as a means of shifting gears before surging into a new rally. The effect is evident on the extreme left of the chart.

Accompanying the decreased momentum and dwindling trading range, we also witness the 20-period (green) and the 200-period (red) moving averages losing amplitude and moving closer together. Although they may continue their helix-like dance during the coming weeks, for the moment, the green 20-period MA is turning up, and, thereby, reveals price’s intention of approaching the 200-period MA. The latter is currently planing out of a slight descent at 3,397 CNY (+/- $550 Bitstamp) and at the highest (daily) timeframe of analysis the implication is that the market is intent on attempting this level next.

 

 

RSI Reverse Divergence

Reverse Divergence occurs when price action does not concur with a new high or low made by an indicator. Usually, once reverse divergence manifests, price will move in the opposite direction in a determined and headstrong manner.

The daily Bitstamp chart on the right (click for a larger view) shows reverse divergence between Price and the Relative Strength indicator (RSI). The RSI low on 20 August accompanies the price low made on the same day, but whereas RSI prints a lower low for the entire decline, price makes a higher low. Whilst additional price lows cannot be ruled out, the fate of the downtrend has been sealed.

Bitcoin 4-Hour Price Chart

The 4-hour Bitstamp chart shows more details of recent price action. The a-b wave count is unconfirmed at this time and conveys the expectation that wave c either advances to the top channel trendline (near $550) or prints a lower high at $510 as price action draws out in a sideways consolidation.

In an uncanny display of inner ratio correlation, the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of advancing wave a falls exactly on $590 – a previous support/resistance watershed over which the decline tumbled in early August. Ultimately, $590 will be challenged again and two outcomes are foreseen:

1. Should price achieve the $590 level due to a rapid advance, it will find itself some distance above the 200MA and will most likely be pulled back to the low $500s as a result of reversion to the 200MA mean.
2. There is much contention between $500 and $520. If price action is dragged sideways while negotiating its upward path then the upper channel trendline would decline well below the price target of $590, and by the time price achieves it, it would have escaped the declining channel and be free to advance further.

Bearbeitet 7. September 2014 von segeln

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Bitcoin Price Decline Resumes – Where To?

http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-decline-resumes/

 

During Sunday night trade the Bitcoin price was sold down to the mid-$60 range, thereby printing a new low (for the past week) in the BTC/USD exchange charts. Analysis still has unfilled targets at $460 and $412, and whilst we are expecting reversal and turning our attention to the next wave up, we need to evaluate what the downside implications are.

CCN

BTC-China‘s BTC/CNY chart failed to make a new low during last night’s sell-off and trade in the exchange’s chart seems muted, probably due to a Chinese Bank holiday. China’s Trade Balance was announced at a favorable $49.8bil this morning. However, at the start of the Asian session, Japan posted economic data showing that the country is sliding deeper into hyper-deflationary recession.

Despite one of the largest quantitative easing programs in history (with the aim of devaluing the Yen), it appears Japan just cannot achieve a consistent level of export. This probably has less to do with falling demand for the once essential Sony PlayStation and more to do with the stellar success of Korean brands Samsung and LG, as well as China’s massive efforts to dominate global trade, manufacture and construction.

The Bitcoin price drop today coincided with the disappointing Japanese data, but it remains to be seen if there is a causal link.

Yesterday’s in-depth analysis acknowledged that further lows are possible. Despite our Roadrunner-like vision beyond the next obstacle and our anticipation of the next wave of advance, we need to remain mindful of the Coyote and his tricks! A last wave down to $460 would cement our downside expectation. However, the danger is that additional downside below $460 would challenge our advancing wave count and potentially open a chasm below.

To remind readers, yesterday’s analysis had discussed several reasons why additional decline would be difficult – but not impossible. None of the analysis has been invalidated by the past 12 hours’ moderate decline, and this analyst still expects price to reverse to the upside without printing a new decline low. Take note that “expects” does not equal “guaranteed”. Let’s look at yesterday’s 4-hour Bitstamp chart with today’s price action included:

The low of $440, struck in August, is the decline low for the entire wave down since June. $460 represents a new low for the decline during September and is a higher low for the entire decline. $460 the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of both wave 1/a and the downward wave formed over the weekend.

That $460 will be targeted today seems certain. Further down, we have a 2.618 Fib target at $434 and another at $412. Down to these price levels our expectations are matched, and price would have to reverse to the upside from above $400 for our proto-bullish view to remain valid. However, below $400 the wheels come off, and price may very well go into free fall to $320 and lower. Should this scenario transpire, analysis would still support a bullish view, but the notion of a decline low having been struck in April will be invalidated.

There is nothing quite like the metallic smell of fear in the markets, is there? For now, the expectation remains that $460 is a terminal low. A break below there would open $412 as the next possible reversal level.

Updates to this article will be made during the European and US sessions should any significant changes come to light.

 

 

 

•  

 

 

[Wochen-Umfrage]

nun sind 10 Tage vergangen ..etwa .... und wir sind wieder tiefer !

 

solage die Bullen nicht aufgeben  und es hier bullische Prognosen gibt ... wird das mit Long nichts

[azu393]

nun sind 10 Tage vergangen ..etwa .... und wir sind wieder tiefer !

 

solage die Bullen nicht aufgeben  und es hier bullische Prognosen gibt ... wird das mit Long nichts

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHmTTV015BY

 

~~~~

@admin

gibts hier im neuen forum eig kein ignore knopf mehr ??

[AdrianMonk]

segeln,

 

eine Bitte. Wenn Du Deine Bilder generiest, kannst Du mal einen ROC oder Momentum Indikator mit einbauen, dann sehen wir mal, wie schnell/stark die Kurve nach unten geht.

Meine These ist, wenn sich das erst mal eingeschossen hat, geht das immer schneller/stärker nach unten, weil alle das machen. dann muss irgendwann die Kurve anhalten, da

jedoch keine richtigen Gegenkräfte vorhanden sind, die den Einstieg nutzen, noch schnell sinken.

 

Danke

Adrian

Bearbeitet 18. September 2014 von AdrianMonk

[AdrianMonk]

Segeln,

 

noch eine andere Bitte. kannst Du mal versuchen, mit Deinen System eine Differenzkurve zu erzeugen, 60 Minuten und Tageslevel. Am besten von einem Handelsplatz.

Ich kriege das nicht hin.

 

Bedeutet : Diff = BTCEUR - BTCUSD

 

Das ist ne coole Sache.

 

Danke

Adrian

Bearbeitet 18. September 2014 von AdrianMonk

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@Adrian Monk,

Deinen Bitten würde ich gerne entsprechen, wenn das alles meine generierten Charts wären. Ich sammle nur Charts aus vielen Quellen und stelle sie hier ein.

Ich bin kein Chart-.Profi,nur interessierter und "halbgebildeter " Laie

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Bitcoin BullBear: ApplePay Adds to the Long-Term Potential of Bitcoin

http://bitcoinwarrior.net/2014/09/bitcoin-bullbear-applepay-adds-long-term-potential-bitcoin/

 

Another week of very bullish news for bitcoin, and another week of little to no reaction in the market. The PayPal news was unequivocally positive, however there were mixed feelings about ApplePay, to say the least. All in all, we remain neutral for now, but we are growing more bullish as support levels hold.

 

So what does all this mean for price? Well apparently the market thinks not much. If this week’s news was not a catalyst for a breakout move, then we expect to have to wait for a more favorable technical setup to get the kind of trade we seek. Although, keep in mind that the area at and around the $442 low is the OTE long zone off of the $339 to $683 rally. Longer term holders should look to buy/add in this region.

Key levels to watch over the coming week are $442 and $456.30 to the downside, while $497, $511, and $534 are key levels to the upside.

Cheers,

@AKWAnalytics

 

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Interessanter,mehr grundsätzlicher Artikel:

 

Bitcoin Analysis: Week of Sep 14 (Intro to Moving Averages)

 

http://cointelegraph.com/news/112515/bitcoin-analysis-week-of-sep-14-intro-to-moving-averages
 

 

 

Last Week’s Review

In last week’s post we concluded with the following statement:

 

With our Bearish stance we were expecting to see lows in the vicinity of the U$440-450 zone. Price did fall immediately after the publication but made what can be considered a higher low at US$456 and then another one at US$459 the next day. The big question now is: Are these lows in the Mid US$450’s here to stay for a while or is more downside on the way? So on that note, let’s take a look at the long term picture.

We are now changing our view point to Long-Term (tentatively) Bullish, Intermediate -Term Bearish, and Short-Term Bearish. Unless we see some positive signs we are now focused on the possible Double Bottom target of US$440-450 zone. If that can hold, there might be some signs of a healthy recovery. If not, the next step down will be all the way to the US$360-380 zone but we will analyze that possibility in due time.

As always we provide potential less-likely outcomes so that the reader can consider all options. Price can obviously reverse at any moment with or without a news event so in case it does, watch the US$500 resistance level which has already proven its relevance on Sep 3rd. If that mark can be broken in quick fashion there is plenty of technical resistance right above it, starting with US$530 (Fibonacci), US$560-580 (Descending Triangle), US$630-650 (Fibonacci)

 

 

 

 

The chart remains ‘tentatively’ bullish, this will continue to be the case as long as the price remains above the US$440 August low. We are still noticeably under an upward sloping trend line, but today’s candle is looking like a Doji, which is something to keep an eye on for a possible reversal in this 3 month downward trend.

Education (Intro to Moving Averages)

Moving Averages are a common tool for traders as it provides a way to look at prices in a smooth way showing the overall trend. There are plenty of references that will go over this in detail including the differences between different types of Moving Averages. As usual with all these tools, the parameters are really up to the Analyst and often one has to make a decision based on whether the moving average is indicating a self fulfilling prophecy because many other traders are looking at the same thing or do you go and try to custom make one specifically for the security being traded. The latter tends to provide good signals historically but if no one else know it, a herd mentality will not be created as the signal is used going forward.  The more popular parameters traders use on daily candles are Simple Moving Average (SMA) using 20, 50 and 200 daily pricing observations. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are also quite popular and in fact that is what we have added to one of our charts below. The number of observation are generally up to the analyst and while most will stick to round historically proven values like those listed above, this trader has seen periods of 137, 274 and 411 be used quite effectively.

Fundamentals (aka News)

Unlike the last few weeks there was plenty in the News to talk about this time around. The Bank of England put out a paper where they do not see Bitcoin as a threat and all throughout clearly showed their misunderstanding of this revolutionary technology and future implications. The big news however, was PayPal, or mare specifically one of its subsidiaries Braintree intending to implement Bitcoin as a payment option to those companies using their tools.  A debate can certainly be made as to whether this will be good or bad for the Bitcoin Ecosystem, but for the purposes of this series there is only one question that needs to be analyzed: What would it do to the price?

All interpretations of the news is of course opinion, but thinking about it logically, the news should definitely bring in some positive PR. Even though PayPal already has a reputation for doing Government’s police work as they freeze accounts even in situations of them having 0 understand of the laws, this move could imply that they have gotten the ok from those up on the Hill. In this case this is a positive sign as it means the old financial guard is more open to Bitcoin even if those that are more privacy conscious will see this as another way to remove Bitcoin’s valuable anonymity aspect. In the intermediate and perhaps longer term views this might mean significant downward pressure on prices. If PayPal is to all of a sudden connect a few million global Bitcoin users, with hundreds of millions places for them to spend these bitcoins, the results could be Mass-Spending and not necessarily Mass-Adoption. Just because your driver or hotel is now accepting it as a payment method does not mean they are embracing it nor believe it is revolutionary. So if all these transactions are immediately converted into Fiat Currencies there would need to be plenty of people willing to buy them from exchanges and that number at the moment is still extremely small.

Another negative aspect of all these Merchants all of a sudden coming on line at once is that it has a chance to stress the system. Bitcoin is very efficient in its small circles, but at the moment is still limited to less than 10 transactions a second. Adoption and Acceptance need to grow gradually and having it show up all at once has potential to for some havoc. So to those screaming for Mass-Adoption tomorrow: “Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it and won’t be happy with the results”.

Daily Overview

Here is our 1-year Daily chart referred to as the ‘Intermediate’ time frame still referencing Fibonacci Retracements and a few Trend Lines broken back in July

Ever since the Descending Triangle was identified, we have considered this time frame to be bearish. It is still hard to find anything positive in this chart and it will stay that way unless we can recover the US$500 mark in a sustainable fashion.

Here is the more detailed short term chart also looked at on a Daily scale. We continue to make 2-day rebounds that have notoriously been creating lower highs virtually every time.  The first thing that would need to happen for any thoughts of higher prices in the intermediate term is for this cycle to end. In light of our educational section this week we have added two Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), which have recently experienced a “Death Cross”. EMA tend to be the better options when it comes to volatile securities which Bitcoin certainly is as it gives more relevance to prices closer to the current day so the lines react faster.

Conclusion:

Our overall stance remains the same as last week: Long-Term (tentatively) Bullish, Intermediate -Term Bearish, and Short-Term Bearish. We are still keeping our eye on that possible Double Bottom target in the US$440-450 zone. Last Week’s fall into the Mid US$450’s was close to our target, but the action needs to prove to us that this slightly ‘higher’ low is here to stay. Unless that happens we will continue to treat the constant formation of ‘lower’ highs as an indication that prices have some more room to correct as guessing the bottom is not a strategy.

We will also remain diligent of the following situations:

Bearish: If our current support line of US$440 cannot hold the price up, the next logical line of support is all the way down in the US$360-380 zone.

Bullish: US$500 is now the first line of major resistance and if we can break it to the upside it will also break the cycle of lower highs we’ve been seeing on a weekly basis making the move even more relevant to the possibility of a trend change. However, there is plenty of technical resistance right above it, starting with US$530 (Fibonacci), US$560-580 (Descending Triangle), US$630-650 (Fibonacci) and so on.

Reference Point: Saturday Sep 13 5:45pm ET, Bitstamp Price US$480

About the author

Tone Vays is a 10 year veteran of Wall Street working for the likes of JP Morgan Chase and Bear Sterns within their Asset Management divisions. Trading experience includes Equities, Options, Futures and more recently Crypto-Currencies. He is a Bitcoin believer who frequently helps run the live exchange (Satoshi Square) at the NYC Bitcoin Center and more recently started speaking at Bitcoin Conferences world wide. He also runs his own personal blog called LibertyLifeTrail.

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Bitcoin Outlook - September 18

http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2014/09/Bitcoin-Outlook-September-18/34556

By: Ben Myers

Whilst BTC/USD continues to trade in a narrow range, Bitcoin exchange start-up CoinJar announced that it would be trying to bridge the gap between the digital currency and the traditional methods of making payments by introducing smart cards which would allow users to make the payment in Australian dollars backed by the digital currency. This is considered to be a hugely positive development for the Bitcoin. Also in similar developments, Gem, the Bitcoin API developer just announced a first round seed funding for it.

According to many Gem could become a game changer in the coming days and months as the developer would be able to provide clients the much needed security features and integrate many other features into the Bitcoin infrastructure which would allow early adopters and the users of Bitcoin a huge advantage to bridge the gaps between traditional payment structures. The company also is looking at building an all in one Bitcoin platform.

The BTC/USD gave a breakdown in yesterday’s trading session after being in a very narrow trading range over the last week or so. The breakdown was on back of high volumes which is a bearish indicator and shows the momentum shift towards the bearish side. The digital currency broke down from its important support zone at $463 and swiftly moved towards levels around $440 in intraday trading hitting an intermediate of $433. The momentum indicator for the BTC/USD has given a fresh sell signal which is confirmative of the shift in momentum towards the sell side. The relative strength index has also given a fresh sell signal which is indicative of the selling pressure. It is imperative to know that the digital currency currently trades below all of its important daily moving averages.

 

Actionable Insight:

Short BTC/USD at current levels for an intermediate target of $380 in the near term with a strict stop loss above $462

[AdrianMonk]

@Adrian Monk,

Deinen Bitten würde ich gerne entsprechen, wenn das alles meine generierten Charts wären. Ich sammle nur Charts aus vielen Quellen und stelle sie hier ein.

Ich bin kein Chart-.Profi,nur interessierter und "halbgebildeter " Laie

 

 

Kannst Du irgendwo die Preisdaten bekommen ? 60 MInuten und Tageschart ?

[Fritze]

Remmi Demmi in Bitcoin Country! Hat da jemand eine plausible Erklärung parat?

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Bitcoin Trading- BTC/USD Technical Analysis, Sept 17: BTC breaks support, falls sharply

http://dcmagnates.com/bitcoin-trading-btcusd-technical-analysis-sept-17-btc-breaks-support-falls-sharply/

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen sharply after breaking through its support level of $460 on BTC-e 24h ago.

The support level had long served as a stronghold of stability. It had not been broken, despite multiple attempts, since the August sell-off. Even during that time, BTC barely spend 24h below the threshold. Price instability prevailed, culminating in the flash crash followed by recovery to above $500.

Prior to that, BTC had not traded below $460 since before the May rally.

It is currently trading at $449 and earlier hit $442.50, a 4-month low. BTC had already shown bearish signals 48h ago while exhibiting abnormally flat behavior and failing to climb above $470 on numerous attempts, without exception.

 

 

 

24h ago, BTC made its first move: it broke through the $460 support level. Beyond this point, there is little support to be found in the $420-450 range, last visited for a lengthy stretch immediate prior to the May rally. Hence, after a brief retracement all the way back to $460, BTC sunk by as much as 4%.

BTC has thus been thrown off-pace from its 200-day moving average (MA) of $540, which had started to flatten during the past week. Now 17% off, the pattern bears resemblance with recent periods of decline. The MA offset is the biggest since during the August instability.

 

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Kannst Du irgendwo die Preisdaten bekommen ? 60 MInuten und Tageschart ?

https://www.tradingview.com/

 

geht auch ohne Anmeldung dort (wäre aber kostenlos).Viele einzustellende Parameter ,sogar "Deine" FischerTransformation.

[AdrianMonk]

DAnke, ich schau mal. Ja die Fishertransformation ist super, die verbessert ne Menge Indikatoren. Kommt von John Ehlers, dessen Arbeit ich sehr schätze.

 

Adrian

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Bitcoin Analysis: Mid-Week Update (Don’t Panic!)

http://cointelegraph.com/news/112562/bitcoin-analysis-mid-week-update-dont-panic
 

 

 

Quick Review

The usual weekly series will still be out this weekend, but movements over the last few days warranted some attention. In last week’s post we were clearly bearish with an expectation that prices would drop to US$440-450 area and then if US$440 was not able to support the price it was clear sailing to US$360-380. As hindsight is always 20/20 the price paused for almost a day at $442 and looked like it might reverse as most wanted, but that was not in the cards. Today’s low was US$378 and even though it’s hard to say if the price drop has stopped, we are now short term optimistic.

The Bad: The news will be expended upon over the weekend, but in general, a few things are not issues right now in the space.  The situation in the Isle of Man is displaying how much influence the Old Guard of Banking has Bitcoins price and confidence. New Bitcoin users are still few and far between while the number of merchants that accept BTC are on the rise.

The Good: The Good: There have not been any reports of exchanges or traders going rogue, or any major situations that may perceived as scams or issues with Blockchain’s infrastructure. The volume does not appear out of the ordinary and perhaps even a bit low to warrant this kind of drop in price. The price has already rebounded back over US$400 and it does not look like panic is spreading through the ecosystem. Blockchain.info does appear to be having some technical issues and appears stuck at block 321511. But again, it doesn't appear to be a reason to panic, the Blockchain itself is performing as expected as can be seen on blockexplorer. Cointelegraph has contacted blockchain.info about the issue and will report on their comments in a later article.

The Silver Lining: When prices drop or rise quickly without any major event, you can’t panic and should step back and think about consequences.  Bitcoin is still in its early stages so if this has major impacts on your financial standing you probably have too much invested in terms of price dependence. It is also a good time to take advantage of companies and products that price things in Bitcoin. It’s like buying a product at a 50% discount vs. 6 months ago.  As the opposite happened in December when Bitcoin was on par with an ounce of gold and many were taking advantage of the conversion.

 

 

The chart above is suggesting that the low of US$378 is a reasonable place for a bounce.  Nothing goes straight down and we are inside the range we mentioned though at the very top of it.  Some downside is definitely possible even down to the US$340 level, which would match the low back in April. However, the odds favor some stabilization and a rebound here at these levels. It’s very difficult to judge prices at point of high volatility but we are keeping an eye on the US$440 level for a reasonable rebound to re-evaluate and gauge the atmosphere.

 

The regular weekend update with more in depth analysis of past, present and future is still on schedule for this weekend’s release.

Reference Point: Friday Sep 19 1:00pm ET, Bitstamp Price US$403

Editor’s Note: As mentioned in the Silver Lining section above, The CoinTelegraph Media Group happens to be one of the companies that price their product in Bitcoin. The group, in addition to CoinTelegraph.com includes CoinmarketCap, which is one of the top 3500 sites according to Alexa.com. With today's prices (relative to fiat) advertising with the CoinTelegraph Media Group is much more affordable.

If you’d like to know more about what CoinTelegraph can do for your business’ reputation, checkout advertisement guide for a preliminary overview of our services, or get in touch with us at sales@cointelegraph.com.

About the author

Tone Vays is a 10 year veteran of Wall Street working for the likes of JP Morgan Chase and Bear Sterns within their Asset Management divisions. Trading experience includes Equities, Options, Futures and more recently Crypto-Currencies. He is a Bitcoin believer who frequently helps run the live exchange (Satoshi Square) at the NYC Bitcoin Center and more recently started speaking at Bitcoin Conferences world wide. He also runs his own personal blog called LibertyLifeTrail.

Bearbeitet 21. September 2014 von segeln

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Bitcoin Trading- BTC/USD Technical Analysis, Sept 21: Bitcoin hits $370, 30% off 200-day MA

http://dcmagnates.com/bitcoin-trading-btcusd-technical-analysis-sept-21-bitcoin-hits-370-30-off-200-day-ma/

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) approached new 2014 lows during the past 48h, bringing total losses to 20% since breaching the $460 support level.

Depending on the exchange, BTC technically set new 2014 lows, save for the flash crashes experienced in August and April.

BTC now trades at a 30% discount to the 200-day moving average, now worth $533. This is the greatest offset since flat trade in the low 400’s immediately prior to the May rally, when the gap was as high as 35%. A move into the $360’s may sever BTC’s orbit to this mark and set off another wave of selling.

The $410-450 range was previously a stronghold of support and the last line of defense after the November 2013 multifold rally. Now broken, it is unknown where the next point of support will form.

The spread between BTC-e and Bitstamp has widened to $17 (4.25 %), well above typical levels but in line with a growing trend during declines.

 

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Crypto markets tumble again, setting new 2014 lows

http://dcmagnates.com/crypto-markets-tumble-again-setting-new-2014-lows/

 

Crypto markets are taking a beating this weekend, extending losses after breaking through their last 2014 support levels late last week.

The losses are taking on an August-like character following a month of relative quiet and even some hope of a recovery.

Bitcoin on BTC-e hit a low of $370 on BTC-e 48h ago. After retracing to $414, it resumed its slide and its currently trading at $379. As previously assessed, the breaking of the $460 support level carried significant implications. Once the final 2014 barrier in the low 400’s was breached, further losses were probable. 20% has been shed since breaking through $460.

And unlike the sudden dips below $400 experienced in April and August, which quickly reversed in highly unsettled trade, this decline has been more gradual. Apparently, it has not been accelerated by compounding factors like heavy panic selling or margin calls, suggesting that these prices may be around to stay for some time.

Litecoin fell as low as $3.91 on BTC-e and is now trading at $4.09. It has exhibited a bizarre blend of both correlating and independent behavior relative to BTC. LTC/BTC initially spiked to 0.0115, since when BTC sustained initial losses, LTC declined negligibly. LTC then followed suit, losing 13% to 0.010, then retracing to 0.0108.

It could have been a lot worse for Litecoin, which usually amplifies BTC movements, particularly to the downside in recent times. It has only lost 18% since BTC breached $460, thus resulting in a relatively respectable LTC/BTC ratio.

Peercoin (PPC) has been highly volatile, seemingly unsure whether to follow its crypto-peers on the way down or adhere to its recent rally to above 40 mBTC. After reaching this high, PPC lost nearly 40%- only to gain most of it back. The behavior is ironic as the rise was attributed to a new project to bring stability to crypto prices.

The spread between BTC-e and Bitstamp has widened to $17 (4.25 %), well above typical levels but in line with a growing trend during declines.

For both BTC and LTC, we’re seeing a worrying recurrence of revisitation to outlandish levels reached during flash crashes even under regular trading conditions, where such prices are becoming the new norm.

With November coming, we’re also approaching a point where 1-year returns on BTC will turn negative. Last November, BTC skyrocketed multifold from $200 to over $1000.

 

 

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Bitcoin Analysis: Week of Sep 21 (Wealth Management Pt. I)

http://cointelegraph.com/news/112576/bitcoin-analysis-week-of-sep-21-wealth-management-pt-i

Last Week’s Review

In last week’s post we concluded with the following statement:

“Our overall stance remains the same as last week: Long-Term (tentatively) Bullish, Intermediate-Term Bearish, and Short-Term Bearish. We are still keeping our eye on that possible Double Bottom target in the US$440-450 zone. Last Week’s fall into the Mid US$450’s was close to our target, but the action needs to prove to us that this slightly ‘higher’ low is here to stay. Unless that happens we will continue to treat the constant formation of ‘lower’ highs as an indication that prices have some more room to correct as guessing the bottom is not a strategy.

We will also remain diligent of the following situations:

Bearish:

If our current support line of US$440 cannot hold the price up, the next logical line of support is all the way down in the US$360-380 zone.

Bullish:

US$500 is now the first line of major resistance and if we can break it to the upside it will also break the cycle of lower highs we’ve been seeing on a weekly basis making the move even more relevant to the possibility of a trend change.

It pretty much happened as expected.  Price dropped down to US$442, stopped there for about a day, then after breaking US$440 to the downside fell very quickly right into our anticipated US$360-380 zone.  In light of the fact that it moved so violently a mid-week update was released which concluded with the following:

“The chart above is suggesting that the low of US$378 is a reasonable place for a bounce.  Nothing goes straight down and we are inside the range we mentioned though at the very top of it.  Some downside is definitely possible even down to the US$340 level, which would match the low back in April. However, the odds favor some stabilization and a rebound here at these levels. It’s very difficult to judge prices at point of high volatility but we are keeping an eye on the US$440 level for a reasonable rebound to re-evaluate and gauge the atmosphere.

Since that publication, we have see the price rebound up to US$430, so being about $10 off the expectation we need to consider whether that was it and we are headed to a new low, still reaching the level of where prices collapsed (US$440-460 zone) before reversing back to new lows, or if this low of US$378 is here to stay and we are now on our way back to US$500 and beyond. As always, let’s have a look at the big picture.

Unlike last week when we considered the Long-Term view ‘tentatively’ Bullish, the loss of US$440 price levels has now turned this Weekly charts Bearish with indications that more price declines are on the near term horizon. This week’s news has been added and is expanded upon in detail in this report. From the looks of it on the chart, there is a high probability that we will re-test the yearly lows around US$350 and even have an outside chance of falling to April ’13 Bubble top of US$266.

Education (Trading Rules)

We usually use this section to introduce general readers to tricks and tools of traders. In light of the major moves that took place last week, it might be a good time to talk about wealth management.

Everything described here also applies to assets other than Bitcoin but obviously that is our focus here. It is also a good time to point out that these weekly Analysis Reports should not be used as a trading guide, they will always be too slow to react and are only here to help you manage expectation, show you tools to be a better investor and perhaps give you ideas as to the future of Bitcoin’s price you might not have considered.

On that note, let’s go over how a Trader should have played last week’s action assuming they completely agreed with last week’s conclusion. This is where Rules become important, though everyone should decide what works for them; here is a post that digs into rules with some more detail. The 3 rules mentioned there are:

1. Always have a plan (A reason for entering, a profit price target and a stop loss target in case you’re wrong)
2. Be patient & don’t panic (This applies to both entering & exiting positions)
3. Only change the previous ‘plan’ if the risk/reward ratio will be improved in your favor.

Applying the rules above to last week’s action and assuming that a trader has the ability to take short positions to make money from the downside in Bitcoin, he might have done the following: The plan was to expect prices to fall, then rebound around US$445, so the trader would have been short or just waiting for a bounce at that level. 

Once the bounce at US$442 was noticed, the trader would have bought bitcoin probably around the US$450 price expecting the bounce to be substantial and reach the US$470-480 levels or perhaps even US$500. But it was also anticipated that if the price goes below US$440 then it would most likely continue down into the US$360-380 zone.

So this trader should have been ready to close this ‘long’ position if the price reversed, which it did - about half a day later.  Once the price fell to around US$438 the trader should not have panicked, exited the trade, admitting that the reversal to the upside is not in the cards, and perhaps even taken out a ‘short’ position with the expectation that price will fall below US$400.

If this short position was initiated at these US$438 levels, the trade would once again be considered a mistake if the price goes back above US$445 or so.  If, on the other hand, the trader is correct and the price drops, he should never let a winning trade cost money. So once it fell to say US$410, he would consider exiting this trade if the price goes back to the entry point around US$437 and get out with at least a cup of coffee.

You would also follow the plan for profit tacking (all or most) if the price falls to the expected zone of US$360-380 or it’s vicinity.

This was just one example of how a trader might have profited from last weeks action and it involved a losing trade. Everyone makes mistakes, successful traders are those that recognize and admit them quickly to invest another day.  Next week, we will focus more on longer term Bitcoin investing, which is definitely a better strategy than short term trading.

Fundamentals & News

There was plenty of news this week, some significant and a lot speculative. On the significant side, the news about Isle of Man losing their banking services was a very critical. Yes, there has since been an update that anther company (Instabill) will fill this void, but the damage was already been done.

Stories like this continuously demonstrating Bitcoin’s dependence on the Legacy Banking system. It’s understandable that it is needed for merchant adoption and some business would never accept bitcoin unless it is instantly converted to their local currency, but this is not where the power of Bitcoin is the strongest.

The more Bitcoin is integrated into the current unstable and corrupt [opinions] financial system, the more it is susceptible to price influences by these legacy institutions and Government’s influence on them. As argued in the debate weather PayPal’s entrance into Bitcoin payment processing, we have a lot of merchants accepting bitcoins today, but if they are not holding on to them directly and using them in commerce, they are putting pressure on prices by immediately selling them on the open market through payment processors like CoinBase, BitPay and soon BrainTree.

Nothing bad is being said about these companies that provide a very valuable service, but for Bitcoin to reach the next level they need to be complementary for merchants and not the primary means of liquidation of the bitcoins acquired in exchange for good or services.  This will continue to put negative pressure on prices, though this trend is expected to change once demand to hold bitcoin goes up.

Moving into the speculative side of the news, the reports about a tech IPO causing mass liquidation of bitcoins to speculate in the stock market is beyond a stretch. At the least, it would have been nice to see a statement from just one person that has actually did it. Even if one person can be found, the chances of this person then saying, “well a lot of other people were doing it,” would be slim.

Yes, there was a lot of chatter even in the Bitcoin chat groups about BABA, but these markets are completely different. Even for the small percentage of people that play the speculative sides of both stocks and bitcoins, they would have completely different sets of funds set aside for each. 

We can revisit these types of situations when an Equities Exchange provides the ability to trade bitcoin in the same account. A better case can be made that the Scottish NO vote has a negative influence on Bitcoin’s price. Not directly of course and ignoring the silly what-ifs in having Bitcoin be the national currency, the NO vote symbolizes that too many people are not yet ready for self responsibility and self rule.

Bitcoin is the ultimate way for an individual to be less government reliant and this vote is proving that humanity is perhaps not ready for this mental transition. The debate as to weather independent Scotland would become a socialist state or Europe’s new capitalist free market economic zone is of course now moot, and is left for another day.

“Bitcoin is the ultimate way for an individual to be less government reliant and this vote is proving that humanity is perhaps not ready for this mental transition.

On a final note, we have yet ANOTHER Bitcoin organization looking to cooperate with Government and regulators. While the list of members is impressive, while certainly created with the good intentions of being represented by the usual suspects at the top of the Bitcoin corporate world. However, it will most likely add additional pressure to Bitcoin’s price as more and more wealth resources and brain (thinking) resources are being thrown at the bottomless wealth-destructing pit of Government favoritism and corrupt regulators.

Adding to that we now have two organizations (and counting) looking to make crypto-currency certifications, so hopefully this will be done in a constructive way as to NOT create barriers to entry and hence can serve as a positive to the ecosystem. We’ve also heard from authorities in Russia in Bangladesh (8th highest population in the world) about banning Bitcoin, which actually may not be a bad thing from a price perspective. At least everyone now knows where they stand if you are in those countries.

“With every Government Announcement and Industry Announcement for Government co-operation, Bitcoin’s advantage of being the last Free Market slowly dies.”

– Tone Vays

We will save the discussion of how DarkCoin’s price moving significantly in the opposite direction during the week of Bitcoin’s panic selling implies the importance of ‘anonymity’ in cryptocurrencies for next week.

Daily Overview

Fundamentals are important, but so are Technicals. Here is our 1-year Daily chart still referencing Fibonacci Retracements and a few Trend Lines broken back in July.

This ‘intermediate’ term time frame remains Bearish. Not much positive to point to in the charts and will remain that way until price can re-capture and sustain the breakdown levels of US$440-460. US$400 is a nice round number and has the potential to hold the price, but the next line of defense on this chart is the US$340-360 zone matching yearly lows made back in April.

Here is our usual short-term chart also looked at on a daily scale. As you can see we are now way below the moving averages introduced last week and even though our overall stance on the price is still negative, the Mid-Week update suggested that we can consider the current situation as a good place for a rebound.

Conclusion

Our overall stance has been altered to Long-Term Bearish (though the downside is somewhat limited here), Intermediate-Term Bearish but Short-Term Bullish.  We are looking for a potential bounce in prices back to the US$440-460 levels where the most likely outcome from there would be continued selling pressure.  The thickness of the arrows in the charts is proportional to the probability level of set outcomes.

We will also remain diligent of the following situation listed in order of importance.

Bearish: Since the price did already rebound from US$378 to US$430 it is possible that it is as far as we get on the upside before creating new lows.  This will become a reality once price falls back below US$380, in which case look for US$340-350 as the next level of support.

Bullish: If price is able to get back above the breakdown zone of US$440-460 and hold there for a few days, we would then consider the possibility of reaching US$500 as the amount of overhead resistance continues to mount.

Reference Point:  Sunday 2:00 pm ET, Bitstamp Price US$405

About the author

Tone Vays is a 10 year veteran of Wall Street working for the likes of JP Morgan Chase and Bear Sterns within their Asset Management divisions. Trading experience includes Equities, Options, Futures and more recently Crypto-Currencies. He is a Bitcoin believer who frequently helps run the live exchange (Satoshi Square) at the NYC Bitcoin Center and more recently started speaking at Bitcoin Conferences world wide. He also runs his own personal blog called LibertyLifeTrail.

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 Bitcoin Outlook - September 22

22 September, 2014 GMT

By: Ben Myers

BTC/USD, which has been in a very narrow trading range over the last many days, has given a breakdown from the all-important support zone at $423 and has broken below the key psychological support zone at $400. The digital currency currently has taken support at the $387 level. The breakdown in price was on the back of above average volumes, which is a cause of concern for traders and investors.

A huge positive for the Bitcoin came in the form of Spain acknowledging the digital currency as an electronic form of payment. The news may well be the opening that Bitcoin investors have been looking for since its inception. Bitcoin investors and traders always wanted the currency to be recognized as a legitimate form of payment by a governmental agency. The treatment of Bitcoin as a currency and not a financial asset is a huge positive and contradictory to what the US has done.

Spain has also seen the rampant usage of Bitcoin as a form of payment at its fashion districts, which is also being seen as a huge positive. Also, the creation of a two-way kiosk ATMS’ from companies like BitOceam Technologies is being seen as a positive game changer for the industry. The kiosks would allow buying and selling of bitcoins as well as support a multi-currency exchange and the company believes it would abide by all rules and regulations.

It is imperative to know that the BTC/USD currently trades below all its important daily moving averages. The relative strength index currently trades in the bearish territory and shows no signs of a reversal. Similarly, the stochastic oscillator is currently trading in the oversold zone but is showing no signs of a reversal that is indicative of the bears having the upper hand.

Actionable Insight:

Short BTC/USD at current levels for a short-term target at $342 with a strict stop loss above $408

Bearbeitet 22. September 2014 von segeln