Bitcoin-Chartanalyse

[AdrianMonk]

Die Hobbytrader vom letzten Sonntag hatten aber ein ganz schönes Volumen

 

WU redet von Profis, die denken in anderen Dimensionen. Beispiel Forex macht ca.5-6 Billiarden USD (oder waren es doch Milliarden) Umsatz am Tag, wenn ich mich recht erinnere.

Allein EURUSD liegt > 500MUSD Umsatz am Tag. Da ist BTC noch etwas von entfernt.

 

Adrian

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Bitcoin Price and the Moon

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-moon/

 

Bitcoin Price traded sideways-to-up during the US session with today’s Asian session pulling price down to the low $320s. Today has a full moon, and its influence will show us the stage of trend development in the Bitcoin price wave cycle.

Bitcoin Price Analysis European Session

Time of analysis: 08h38 UTC
Trade surged above resistance at $336 and has met a declining trendline that capped recent weeks’ decline. Getting above this trendline will open up advance to horizontal resistance at $365 and then the 1.618 Fib extension at $390. Dropping away from the trendline, the 4-hour 20MA should step up as resistance – if it fails… be prepared for downside action.

Bitstamp Hourly Chart:

 

Asian Session

Time of analysis: 03h00 UTC
Midway through the Asian trading session the 4-hour Bitstamp chart shows price holding above the 20-period moving average (20MA) which implies continued advance.

Updates will added at the top of the article as significant price action becomes evident in the chart.

Bitcoin Price and the Moon

It’s difficult to determine a cyclical effect of Moon phases on the market. What is clear from the chart below is that significant market highs and lows coincide with Full and New moons. Market esoterica such as “Sell on the New Moon, Buy when it’s Full” seem to have a statistical chance of getting traders and investors in and out of the market at reversal points. However, as seen in the Bitcoin price chart the maxim does not hold true in all cases.

In the chart below, where a significant high or low coincides with a New moon, it is indicated with a magenta arrow. Significant highs and lows that coincide with a Full moon are indicated with yellow arrows. As you can see it’s a mixed bag, with both highs and lows falling on either – although there is a higher incidence of annual market highs being hit at New Moon (yellow up-arrows).

Moon Phase Chart

Click on the chart for a larger image.

Bitcoin Moonrise

Our concern today is not with market highs but lows. The Bitcoin price hit a decline low (three days ago) during the final days of the waxing moon. Today, 8 October 2014, is Full moon. Reviewing the chart, above, there are three occurrences of significant lows being hit during the days adjacent to a Full Moon.

If Sunday’s low was indeed the decline bottom, then we can expect price to confirm the uptrend by holding above the 20MA and targeting the 200MA (near $400) on the 4-hour Bitstamp chart. A sensible stop-loss for this long position can be placed between $275 and $300.

Sunday’s analysis highlighted the fact that unfilled decline targets still wait near $260 and $200. If price were to drop away below $300 and resume decline, then $260 will be primary and $200 a secondary target for decline.

Harvest Moon

Harvest moons are highlighted in pale orange. On the Bitcoin price chart, they occur in conjunction with both market highs and lows. Notice that price extremes on the chart are accompanied by Harvest moons: in November 2011 and November 2013. The next Full moon, on 7 November, will be a Harvest moon.

Statistically, next month’s Harvest moon should accompany a price extreme or significant market reversal. Which will it be – a high or a low? Either the Bitcoin price rallies for the next 30 days to a new high or a new low is waiting to capitulate following the current price rise. This is why the return to decline is discussed above, as a warning to traders and investors not to over-commit to the upside until the uptrend is confirmed.

Global Economy

Today sees the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and with it the revelation of whether QE tapering is final and that interest rates will be going up. The market will eagerly anticipate the news and the actual release should see some strong market moves. The reaction of the Bitcoin price will be interesting.

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hier eine neue Chartformation /-pattern. Genannt Swimmingpool-Formation =bullish Formation !

 

 

Bearbeitet 8. Oktober 2014 von segeln

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Bitcoin BullBear Analysis: The Bitcoin Bearwhale

http://bitcoinwarrior.net/2014/10/bitcoin-bullbear-analysis-bitcoin-bearwhale/

 

It has been a fascinating week for us technicians as the price action in bitcoinland has given us alot to chew on. Of course we must mention “bearwhale” seeing as though he unleashed the largest single sell order in BTC history only to be rejected to the upside…

So, in the midst of the panic selling that occurred on late Sunday afternoon, some genius decided to send 30,000BTC to Bitstamp to sell into the madness. When the order showed up, prices fell 10%, then it was pulled which caused a huge 20% rally. Finally, bearwhale had enough and simply put the full 30k on offer for $300 even, which was 10% below the going market price at that time. Six hours later, the sell wall was gone, and prices were ripping higher.

It is fun to speculate about who bearwhale is and why he did what he did, although that is the much less relevant part of this story as far as we are concerned. The real story is the chart, which shows surprising resiliency in the face of so much negativity. Bullish divergences abound on the indicators, while sentiment remains extremely poor. This lays fertile ground for the bulls to pull the plow, and leads us to believe that there are legs to this rally.

That being said, the bear market has not been broken, a reversal has not been confirmed, and the weekly chart still looks ominous for the medium term. Although we think it is safe enough to participate to the upside from these levels, we also would caution those who get too caught up in the bullishness prior to a true resolution of a bottom. Play, but play carefully!

Key levels to watch are 347, 300, 275, and 260 to the downside, with resistance coming in at 397, 452, and 525.

Cheers,

@AKWAnalytics

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Another Dead Cat Bounce For BTC/USD?

http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2014/10/Another-Dead-Cat-Bounce-For-BTCUSD-October-8-2014/34999

 

08 October, 2014 GMT

 

By: Ben Myers

BTC/USD had a very flat session yesterday after witnessing further selling pressure in early trading. Many traders and followers of Bitcoin are of the view that post the massive volatility seen in the last couple of days, weak hands from the market may well have been forced to exit and only strong hands are now in the market.

The BTC/USD continues to trend below all-important daily moving averages. The support for the digital currency continues to remain at the $300 level and on the upside, the resistance comes at around $342 levels. The stochastic oscillator for the BTC/USD has given a buy signal. The relative strength index too, is showing signs of a reversal, which is a huge positive for traders and investors.

Bitcoin wallet and analytics provider Blockchain raised close to $30 million in the first round of venture capital funding which is being considered as the biggest ever by a tech firm related with crypto-currency. This is indicative of the changing interest that Silicon Valley investors are now having towards Bitcoin and its future prospects. One thing, which will sooth bitcoin investors, would be the fact that there was contribution from Virgin Group Chairman Richard Branson as well.

The Bitcoin Foundation also announced that it would be taking measures towards standardisation of Bitcoin Symbol and Accounting code by early next year. In a statement released by the foundation it said that standardisation was an important step towards removing obstacles for mainstream adoption of the digital currency. It believes this is especially true in the case of financial innovation which has a global reach.

Actionable Insight:

Short BTC/USD if it breaks below $300 for a short term target at $240 with a stop loss above $321

Long BTC/USD if it closes above $337 for a short term target at $375 with a stop loss below $319

Bearbeitet 11. Oktober 2014 von segeln

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Bitcoin Price Bumpy Ride

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article47699.html

 

 

Oct 10, 2014 - 06:01 PM GMT

By: Mike_McAra

 

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is playing-catch up with Bitcoin. The CFTC held a meeting in Washington yesterday, to learn more about the cryptocurrency, we read on CoinDesk:

Panelists for the CFTC event included Coin Center executive director Jerry Brito; New York Law School professor Houman Shadab; BitPay chief compliance officer Tim Byun; and TeraExchange president and co-founder Leonard Nuara.

While only covering basic elements about the subject and sidestepping larger questions about bitcoin’s classification as a currency or commodity, the roughly two-hour session appears to have done much to convince the CFTC of the potential of digital currency.

CFTC Commissioner Mark Wetjen said:

“It just seems like based on what I have learned, some of those applications could be so compelling that it would be a real mistake for us as a commission to not make sure we are staying on top of these developments.”

The regulators are getting updated on what Bitcoin is and it seems that the CFTC is appreciating the opportunities the currency might give. This is a good sign as far as further development of Bitcoin derivatives is concerned. The CFTC’s remit is to regulate the derivatives market in the U.S. Since the Commission is now familiarizing itself with the currency and getting more insight into how Bitcoin works, it seems as though the way for more Bitcoin derivatives might be open. Of course, the development of such exchange-traded derivatives would still take time but the CFTC doesn’t seem to be hostile to the currency in any way.

For now, let’s turn to the charts portion of today’s alert.

On BitStamp, we saw an explosion in volume yesterday. More than 45,000 were traded during the day. Bitcoin tested $400 (green line on the chart), reversing later on. The change in short-term trend is now very well visible, but the recent turn (yesterday late in the day) was down.

Today (this is written before 9:00 a.m. ET), we’ve seen a move up being followed by a move down. The volume is suppressed compared with yesterday but is not really weak. Right now, yesterday’s retracement and today’s action point to a slowdown in a move up. At the moment, the currency is above $350, the trend seems to be up and the volume is still significant. But is this enough to suggest that further appreciation might be in the cards?

On the long-term BTC-e chart, we see a rebound from the level of $300 in the direction of $400. The move was somewhat stopped yesterday but Bitcoin has stayed above $350 today.

If you recall our comments from yesterday:

(…) the action has been up and our limit order was triggered. The volume has also been up so far. These clues suggest that the move up is starting to gain the necessary momentum. While what we’ve seen so far isn’t enough to call the rebound a very strong one, it seems strong enough to go for speculative long positions.

Given yesterday’s and today’s action, the momentum seems to be there. The move is to the upside. One reservation is that the action yesterday ended in depreciation and that we’ve definitely seen a slowdown today. The move down hasn’t been strong and currently it seems that it might be a slowdown within a correction. Consequently, our bet is still on a move up.

Summing up, long speculative positions might be the way to go.

Trading position (short-term, our opinion): long speculative position, target at $500, stop-loss at $337.

[ngt]

Bitcoin Price Bumpy Ride

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article47699.html

 

While only covering basic elements about the subject and sidestepping larger questions about bitcoin’s classification as a currency or commodity, the roughly two-hour session appears to have done much to convince the CFTC of the potential of digital currency.

 

CFTC Commissioner Mark Wetjen said:

“It just seems like based on what I have learned, some of those applications could be so compelling that it would be a real mistake for us as a commission to not make sure we are staying on top of these developments.”

The regulators are getting updated on what Bitcoin is and it seems that the CFTC is appreciating the opportunities the currency might give. This is a good sign as far as further development of Bitcoin derivatives is concerned. The CFTC’s remit is to regulate the derivatives market in the U.S. Since the Commission is now familiarizing itself with the currency and getting more insight into how Bitcoin works, it seems as though the way for more Bitcoin derivatives might be open. Of course, the development of such exchange-traded derivatives would still take time but the CFTC doesn’t seem to be hostile to the currency in any way.

 

Diesen Absatz finde ich so bemerkenswert, dass ich ihn einmal zur breiteren Kenntnisnahme übersetzt habe:

 

[Die US-Kommission für Warentermingeschäfte (CFTC) hatte gestern eine Sitzung in Washington, um sich über die Kryptowährung Bitcoin zu informieren. Das Aufgabengebiet der CFTC ist die Regulierung des US-Derivatemarkts.]

 

Obwohl nur die Grundlagen des Themas behandelt wurden und gewichtigere Fragen zur Klassifizierung von Bitcoins als Währung oder Ware ausgelassen wurden, scheint die zweistündige Sitzung viel dahingehend bewirkt zu haben, die CFTC vom Potenzial der Digitalwährung zu überzeugen.

 

CFTC-Kommissar Mark Wetjen äußerte sich so:

 

„Nach dem, was ich erfahren habe, könnten einige der Anwendungen so überzeugend sein, dass es für uns als Kommission ein echter Fehler wäre, wenn wir bei diesen Entwicklungen nicht auf dem jeweils neuesten Stand blieben.“

 

Die Regulatoren werden zu Bitcoin weiter auf dem Laufenden gehalten und es scheint so, als würde die CFTC dem Potenzial dieser Währung positiv gegenüberstehen. Dies ist ein gutes Zeichen für die Entwicklung künftiger Bitcoin-Derivate. Da die Kommission sich nun mit der Währung vertraut macht und ein besseres Verständnis für die Funktionsprinzipien des Bitcoins entwickelt, könnte sich so der Weg für weitere Bitcoin-Derivate öffnen. Natürlich würde die Einführung derartiger börsengehandelter Derivate Zeit erfordern, aber die CFTC scheint dem in keiner Weise feindlich gegenüberzustehen.

Bearbeitet 11. Oktober 2014 von ngt

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Bitcoin Price Analysis – Where to from Here?

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-analysis/

 

 

The Bitcoin price is about to make the move that will signal whether it is indeed advancing, or just set-up for another drop – as many in the market are suspecting. Week-end analysis takes an overview of the larger trend and assesses the waves ahead.

Charting the Bitcoin Price Waves
Moon Landing Conspiracy
Revert Me To the Mean, Baby
Volatile Emotions – Dysfunctional Fed
Summary
 

Charting the Bitcoin Price Waves

A week ago the Bitcoin price hit $275 and in doing so closed a corrective triangle that lasted just over ten months.

 

The triangle is apparently completed, and we await additional confirmation that trend has turned up.

Corrective structures unfold in either three or five waves, and a triangle is a five wave structure. The term “triangle” refers to the shape of its outer trendlines that, according to the Wave Principle, need to be touched five times. A triangle is labeled A-B-C-D-E.

It is not unusual for the last wave E to extend beyond the lower trendline, and we made provision for a final wave of decline on Tuesday 8 October which was a full moon day. As per our expectation based on the completed triangle, the Bitcoin price continued advancing on the day.

Moon Landing Conspiracy

The long-term Bitcoin price chart shows a statistically significant correlation of price extremes with full moon and new moon days. Note that it is not being inferred that full moons and new moons are buy/sell signals in themselves. Such a direct causal relationship is not supported by the chart evidence.

Price had made a decline low (Bitstamp $275 on 5 Oct) three days prior to a full moon. Based on the chart history, we conceded that an additional low might be possible on the full moon day, but advance continued through the full moon. The bias, therefore, remains bullish toward a small degree wave 1 top.

Also read: Bitcoin Price and the Moon

Revert Me To the Mean, Baby

Bitstamp 4-Hour Chart

Moving Averages

The 4-hour Bitstamp chart shows that price is within reach of the 200-period moving average (200MA) which is currently just above $400. We’ve explored the mechanism whereby, following a decline low, the first wave up targets the 4-hour 200MA and then does the same thing on the daily chart. The immediate target is, therefore, the 4-hour 200MA. However, it may turn out that the current advancing wave surges above $400 and achieves the 2.618 Fibonacci extension target near $460. Here’s why.

Mood: Anticipate Exuberance

Following the protracted correction, the market’s mood is cautious. Wave shapes similar to the present wave up have implied advance on several occasions during the past three months. Yet, each time, they had turned down at the last moment and dropped away with traders’ and investors’ money. The market wants advance, but there is hesitancy and suspicion. However, as soon as price advances above the high at $390, the pattern will be broken, and advance confirmed. Participants will pile in, and the resulting activity will likely surpass the 200MA and spike to the 2.618 Fib target or beyond.

Several large players will have been long since the low near $275, so $500 seems a reasonable price at which to take profit, thereby initiating wave 2 correction. Wave 2 typically retraces 61.8% of the first wave’s advance, and that should see us back near current levels. As for the potential depth of retracement, we’ll measure its targets once we have a wave 1 top in place.

Bistamp Hourly Chart

Two things to notice in the hourly chart:

1) Price is correcting above the hourly 200MA
2) The correction is a five wave corrective triangle and it’s apparently complete

It must be pointed out that Bitcoin sometimes consolidates sideways in up to thirteen waves. If trade were to draw sideways for the rest of Sunday then we could see 7, 9, 11 or 13 waves form before a break to the upside. The short-term bearish scenario whereby price dips below the red 200MA will be a signal to revise our immediate bullish expectation and that a larger correction is due – possibly wave 2. Until such time the expectation remains bullish.

Volatile Emotions – Dysfunctional Fed

The “VIX” is an S&P500 Volatility Index published by the CBOE. It measures the volatility of the S&P500 index and – besides being a tradeable instrument – it is used by market analysts to anticipate periods of increased market volatility. The VIX is currently at 22 which is a relatively low value, but it hasn’t been at this level since February. Market volatility has been rising since July of this year, and the recent jump is a direct result of the decline in the S&P500 index since late September.

Feel That Twitching?

Stock indexes, like the S&P500, decline for a reason and the reason is fear. Fear of the end of QE; fear over the state of the global economy; and, fear over the Fed’s competence to do the right thing. Unfortunately, the Fed has a track record of doing precisely the wrong thing at the wrong time. The Fed’s illusion that it has real control over markets is crumbling as evidenced by the minutes of the last FOMC meeting.

 

The central topic of discussion at that meeting was over the use of the word “considerable” in relation to specifying a time-period until rates increases would begin. The disagreement ended up going to a vote that resulted in several abstentions and a marginal win in favor of referring to the time-window as a “considerable time”. This neurotic obsession belies the fact that the Fed desperately wants to buy time. It also reveals that they are all too aware that their real task is not managing the economy but about managing perception, namely the market’s perception of the Fed’s competence at re-arranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.

The S&P500 decline below support shows us that the market fears the absence of QE and doubts that the Fed can navigate the icebergs.

Also read: Bitcoin Price and the Federal Reserve

Summary

The bias is to the upside. Bullish spirits are gathering and a break above last week’s high near $396 will quickly turn into a stampede as the reality of continued advance sets in. Buyers will pile in and price could advance rapidly above $400.

An imminent technical factor is the inevitable wave 2 (downward) reversal from the current wave 1 top. Where the top will form is unclear and daily analysis will keep readers informed.

Expect for some of the increased market volatility to be felt in the Bitcoin price – resulting not only in surges higher but in sharp corrections. It’s impossible to anticipate the range of price until we see an illustrative correction in the chart. Throughout it all just keep a cool head – Bitcoin is an innovation that is built on sound principles, and its valuation will increase by multiple factors from here onwards

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Bitcoin Analysis: Week of Oct 12 (Don’t Blame the Bearwhale)

http://cointelegraph.com/news/112719/bitcoin-analysis-week-of-oct-12-dont-blame-the-bearwhale

 

Note From the Author: This will also be a slightly different than usual report due to finally being able to catch up after speaking at Inside Bitcoins Vegas Conference Oct 5-7 and also the CoinAgenda/BitAngels event Oct 8-9. This was one of them most exciting weeks in bitcoins volatility so to all the readers that are now consistently following this series, you are encouraged to follow me on Twitter (@Tone_LLT) where I would attempt to put up a chart and some thoughts every few days.

Last Week’s Review

In last week’s post we concluded with the following statement:

Our overall stance remains Long-Term Bearish (with still limited downside), Intermediate-Term Bearish, but for the 3rd week in a row we are flipping Short-Term to now be Bullish. The previous 2 weeks worked out as planned so let’s see if this week is kind to the arrows on the charts. The overall picture still remains very weak for any meaningful reversal at this time. The highest probability move right now is a rebound back to the US$400 area. Even if the price breaks down this weekend into the US$340-350 zone, the fact that it’s oversold still allows for a move from US$340 back to US$400.

We will also remain diligent of the following situations listed in order of importance.

Bearish: In case prices break down bellow the US$340-350 zone, it would most likely go down to the US$260 area with the round number of US$300 perhaps slowing down the slide a bit.

That was written around 4 AM ET Saturday before getting on the plane from NYC to the conferences in Las Vegas a few hours later. One of the disadvantages of analyzing this very volatile market is that it is also 24 hr so no matter when you plan your flights, there is a chance of missing one of biggest moves of the year. So let's go over what happened.

The big news of course was the BearWhale after an initial fall a day or so earlier. The massive sell wall created at US$300 eventually chipped away and there was a great rebound all the way back to just under US$400. For those who were expecting a move from US$350 to US$400 did eventually see their target hit in less than a week but it came at a massive price of watching a crash down to US$275. The price reversed from just above the bearish target implied in our ‘Bearish’ scenario so the big question is – have we finally bottomed for the year?

Also for the regular readers of this series, it is encouraged to follow the twitter feed and even though such a sudden fall came as a surprise to everyone, those that invest wisely and were not in danger of Margin Calls could have stayed calm. Here are the tweets from Vegas about possible expectations.

Just landed in Vegas for

#bitcoinconf

, saw price drop under 340 support.

#bitcoin

short term oversold

$btc

$btcusd

may bounce but 300 likely

— Tone (@Tone_LLT)

October 4, 2014

#bitcoin

took an unexpected hit, still expect the $380-400 rebound mentioned last week

$BTCUSD

watch RSI & $305 low 

— Tone (@Tone_LLT)

October 8, 2014

#bitcoin

has reached lowest target at $380 but now RSI overbought, a little break would be nice

$BTC

$BTCUSD

: Bullish 

— Tone (@Tone_LLT)

October 9, 2014

#bitcoin

is hitting resistance at $400, it can break out but a healthy uptrend would fall to $340 or so first

$USDBTC

— Tone (@Tone_LLT)

October 9, 2014

#bitcoin

showing first signs of reversal, the RSI is back calling turns along with horizontal sup/res

$BTC

$BTCUSD

— Tone (@Tone_LLT)

October 10, 2014

Please keep in mind that this series is not meant to create a following of traders looking to do exactly what is suggested. Following someone you do not know is a recipe for disaster. It only works in situations where you have a direct line of communication and are not glued to a computer screen waiting for an update. It is intended for those who are interested in learning how some traders do it and most importantly to manage expectations so that when prices suddenly drop to a very realistic value of US$275, a person holding bitcoins is not in a panic. In fact, the readers of this series might actually consider the drop not as bad as expected since it stayed about US$10 higher than the April 2013 bubble top, which was the target upon the break down of US$340 support being lost as mentioned on several occasions.

As a note, you might see a slightly different chart time frame in the Tweets.  The charts with the indicators at the bottom use 2-hr candles and those indicators will be covered in the Education sections sometime in the near future.

So after all that, lets get back to where we are today.  Here is the Long Term Chart.

For the first time in a while the Long-Term view is showing signs of a possible reversal. At this time we are completely Neutral and there one thing missing from turning Bullish (a higher high) and we have also now established a low, which needs to be taken out to the downside in order to once again lean Bearish. At this stage there are no expectations from the weekly chart perspective but points of interest are the high reached on the PayPal news around US$450 and last weeks lows at US$300 (rounding is fine looking at the big picture).

Education (Try Not to Trade or Analyze at 3AM)

No time for an in depth education section today so let’s just talk about trading mistakes, which everyone makes so this is a good opportunity to admit mine. As a disclaimer, I do not make my living trading bitcoins at this time, and even though I do make trades based on the analysis I write, it is always with amounts I’m willing to lose and ‘almost always’ in situations where I know I will be around a computer to change or exit when necessary. I would be more likely to make a spur of the moment trade in the regular financial future’s markets because they provide a lot more tools and options on their exchanges than whet we currently have in Bitcoin.

So here is something a trader should not do:

1. Trade and Analyze in the middle of the night unless that is his standard consistent practice;
2. Make a trade knowing full well that you will not be near Internet for about a day and really busy several days after that;
3. Say that you are now a long-term holder instead of a short-term trader when the position goes against you and there was no exit.

The Bitcoin world is very volatile so something like the second point should be obvious. This volatility is also the reason why the third point was not as bad in this case since the target achieved 5 days later as the price hit US400 though after a big crash. If you ever feel you just turned yourself into a long-term investor on what was intended to be a short-term trade, there is a big problem.

That slight blunder was actually mentioned in the Wall Street Journal Blog in the article titled BitBeat: Bitcoin Finds Willing Buyers, Even With Prices Plunging. Would like to thank Bitcoin Watcher for pointing it out

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BTC/USD Rangebound But Gains Expected
http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2014/10/BTCUSD-Rangebound-But-Gains-Expected-October-13-2014/36059

• 13 October, 2014 GMT

By: Ben Myers
BTC/USD continued to trade in a narrow range, forming a strong support zone at $350 levels but maintaining resistance at the upper end of $385. Either traders believe only a move on a breakout or a breakdown would provide the future course of direction for the digital currency in the near term. BTC/USD continues to trade below all-important daily moving averages, which is a bearish indicator.
The stochastic oscillator for BTC/USD continues to be in a strong uptrend and is showing no signs of a reversal, which is a positive sign. The Momentum indicator continues to indicate the buying momentum present at current levels. Traders believe that post the volatile moves seen over the last couple of weeks, most weak hands have been forced out of the market and only strong buyers are currently present in the market.
Romania becomes one of the first countries to start selling Bitcoin through ATM networks with a tie up with network provider ZebraPay. The ATM would be charging 4% commission on prices and buyers would not have to submit documentation during the transaction which is being seen as a huge positive by the trader community.
As per early reports, the demand for Bitcoins using ATM machines is quiet high. In other positive news, the Ebola outbreak in the West African nation of Sierra Leone has seen an outpour of support in the form Bitcoin donations. Supporters of Bitcoin believe that the current donation drive shows the mass movement that Bitcoin can create as it breaks down the barriers of forex exchanges and is now being used to support social causes and not being used just as a financial asset.
Actionable Insight:
Short BTC/USD if it breaks below $365 with an intermediate target at $321
Long BTC/USD if it breaks above $385 with an intermediate target at $422

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Bitcoin rebound continues as prices rise to $380-Level

http://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bitcoin-rebound-continues-as-prices-rise-to-$380-level-312757

 

Investing.com - Bitcoin prices continued to rebound from an 11-month low hit earlier in the month on Monday as investors awaited the next catalyst to influence price direction.

Bitcoin prices continue to Rebound

 

According to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index, which averages prices from the major exchanges, prices of the crypto-currency dipped 0.45% to trade at $374.50.

Prices of the virtual currency have recouped nearly all of the losses suffered earlier in the month as investors returned to the market to seek cheap valuations.

A number of traders and market analysts attributed the recent slide to price manipulation by short-term profiteers who are deliberately driving prices down to eventually buy them back at lows.

Meanwhile, euro-denominated Bitcoin prices (BTC/EUR) inched down €0.10, or 0.03%, to trade at €299.90 on U.S.-based Kraken Exchange.

Elsewhere, yuan-denominated Bitcoin prices dipped CNY0.33, or 0.01%, to trade at CNY2,288.67 yuan on Shanghai-based BTC China, while prices tacked on CNY40.18, or 1.79%, to trade at CNY2,293.41 on Beijing-based OKCoin.

Bearbeitet 13. Oktober 2014 von segeln

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Bitcoin Trading- BTC/USD Technical Analysis, Oct 14: BTC roars back to $400

http://dcmagnates.com/bitcoin-trading-btcusd-technical-analysis-oct-14-btc-roars-back-to-400/

 

BTC/USD’s bounce has found legs, roaring back to the $400 mark on BTC-e. It has not traded above this psychologically significant level since September 23, when news of PayPal’s partial acceptance of Bitcoin sent it as high as $450.

That pop was short lived. In a trajectory obviously indicating over-hyped news, the pair gravitated back to below $400 and then proceeded into one of its worst slumps this year. Falling as low as $285 on BTC-e- a new 2014 low- there was an uptick in talk of an all-out crash and of investors losing hope.

Since discovering some support around $325 last week, however, investors have piled back in. BTC added as much as 43% from its $285 trough, a lucrative but not-too-uncommon return during volatile rounds of crypto trading. It hit a high of $408 12h ago, and is now trading at $402.

The momentum of the 1-week rally reinforces theories that the big drop was catalyzed by early investors dumping their holdings in an uncontrolled and nonstrategic fashion, perhaps triggered by prices crossing a stop point. Cheap coins were then snapped up by investors, resetting equilibrium.

The question now becomes if the rally was nothing more than a bounce, retracing 75% of losses, which are soon to be resumed. Or if the dramatic drop- which unlike the flash crashes, dragged on for an extended period- in fact signifies a critical point of long-term reversal. BTC is still off by 60% year-to-date and remains 20% below its 200-day moving average, now down to $507.

If/when the price retraces back to below $400, a solid support range of $350-$370, held for an extended period, needs to be established in order for a grander recovery to take shape. If not, one bears in mind that there is little support between current levels and $200.

Bearbeitet 15. Oktober 2014 von segeln

[segeln]

Bitcoin Hits $408 as Crypto Rally Continues

https://blog.fxopen.com/bitcoin-hits-408-as-crypto-rally-continues/

 

Bitcoin’s rally continues and we are now in the fourth day of straight gains. After yesterday’s move up from $367 to $382, today BTC/USD briefly broke the $400 round figure to hit an interim high of $408.20 per coin. We are currently trading somewhat weaker at $392.01.

More gains are likely going forward. The levels to watch on the high side are $400, followed by the post-PayPal high at $446 ($450 really). Further up the psychological round figure at $500 may provide some resistance. This is followed by the August 21^st swing high at $530.

 

On the lower end, the $343 figure is the number to watch. Bitcoin prices skirted right above the $343-$350 support area for several days before catapulting higher. A move lower should give the bulls some pause. Below this, the $300 round figure may provide some support. Lower still, we find two more potential support levels, the October 5^th swing low at $285 quickly followed by $266. The $266 level was the high during most of 2013 and will be the key number to watch on the downside. A break below may lead to prolonged losses for bitcoin.

Bearbeitet 15. Oktober 2014 von segeln

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Bitcoin rally pauses as chart signals weigh

http://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bitcoin-rally-pauses-as-chart-signals-weigh-313068

 

Bitcoin hovers below $400

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fell $17.17, or 4.21%, to trade at $390.93 on Slovenia-based BitStamp during U.S. morning hours.

BitStamp rallied to $416.65 on Tuesday, the strongest level since September 25. Prices tumbled to an 11-month low of $275.00 on October 6.

 

According to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index, which averages prices from the major exchanges, prices of the crypto-currency lost 2.79% to trade at $387.59.

Prices of the virtual currency have recouped all of the losses suffered earlier in the month as investors returned to the market to seek cheap valuations.

A number of traders and market analysts attributed the recent slide to price manipulation by short-term profiteers who are deliberately driving prices down to eventually buy them back at lows.

Meanwhile, euro-denominated Bitcoin prices (BTC/EUR) dropped €8.25, or 2.63%, to trade at €306.00 on U.S.-based Kraken Exchange.

Elsewhere, yuan-denominated Bitcoin prices edged down CNY47.83, or 1.96%, to trade at CNY2,390.65 yuan on Shanghai-based BTC China, while prices dipped CNY83.18, or 3.36%, to trade at CNY2,390.99 on Beijing-based OK Coin.

Bearbeitet 15. Oktober 2014 von segeln

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Bitcoin Capitalizes on Lax Regulation

http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2014/10/Bitcoin-Capitalizes-on-Lax-Regulation-October-15-2014/36136

 

15 October, 2014 GMT

 

 

By: Ben Myers

Bitcoin experienced a very positive development as the state of NY ruled that developers working on software for the crypto-currency would not require a license going forward. This is being seen as a huge victory as it takes away regulatory hurdles. Additionally, Bitcoin found a supportive voice in the Australian Senate. Senator Sam Dastyari provided his full support to the digital currency and strongly believes that all financial intermediaries should provide feedback on how to incorporate and regulate the digital currency in order that it should be adopted by the masses.

BTC/USD was unable to scale the all-important psychological resistance zone of $400 and witnessed selling pressure which pushed prices lower. The weakness continued in the Asian- morning trading session with the digital currency trading flat, but with a negative bias. The BTC/USD is currently trading in an upward trending channel but has found resistance at higher levels.

The crypto-currency continues to trade below its daily moving averages and the stochastic oscillator for the BTC/USD has show first signs of a reversal. The relative strength index has given a clear sell signal, pointing towards an impending correction in prices. Support for BTC/USD continues to remain near the $372 level, which is the upward sloping trendline.

Actionable Insight:

Short BTC/USD below $372 for an intermediate target at $300 with a strict stop loss above $400

Long BTC/USD only it manages to move above $400 for a short-term target at $442 with a strict stop loss below $370

 

 

Bearbeitet 17. Oktober 2014 von segeln

[Wochen-Umfrage]

wars das wieder ?  ......... aufgrund der Aktion in den Indices schaue ich  btc weniger ...

 

hier mein chart ... leider bei der Grünen ging ich nicht short

https://charts.mql5.com/5/972/btc-mini-h1-ava-financial-ltd.png

 

dennd a wäre der top short punkt gewesen ! ziel nun  neue lows ..... denn wir sidn noch lange nicht fertig mit dem Weg runter ...........

[AdrianMonk]

wars das wieder ?  ......... aufgrund der Aktion in den Indices schaue ich  btc weniger ...

 

hier mein chart ... leider bei der Grünen ging ich nicht short

https://charts.mql5.com/5/972/btc-mini-h1-ava-financial-ltd.png

 

dennd a wäre der top short punkt gewesen ! ziel nun  neue lows ..... denn wir sidn noch lange nicht fertig mit dem Weg runter ...........

 

Er hat recht, man sieht die klare Bewegung nach unten, man kommt langsam in den Bereich, wo man short gehen kann. der kleine lila Kasten !!!

Bearbeitet 16. Oktober 2014 von AdrianMonk

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How Ichimoku Cloud Charts Can Boost Your Bitcoin Trading Skills

 

 http://cointelegraph.com/news/112741/how-ichimoku-cloud-charts-can-boost-your-bitcoin-trading-skills

 

 

If Asia is in fact the biggest market for trading Bitcoin, then it pays to look at technical indicators that the traders in this market are using. 

In this piece we will be looking at Ichimoku Clouds, which is a very popular indicator and works particularly well with currencies and assets that track currencies.

Japanese candlesticks are another extremely popular indicator and can be used as a confirmation for Ichimoku Clouds. Tone Vayes has talked extensively about candlesticks in previous articles so there is not need to go into details here.

Ichimoku Clouds are one of the more visual indicators which make them easy to interpret. It defines clearly support and resistance, identifies trend direction, gauges momentum, and provides trading signals.  This can all be done with one look.

Components of the Cloud

There are 5 components to the cloud.  The first one is Tenkan-Sen (i.e. Conversion Line). This line is constructed like a moving average.  It looks back 9 days, but unlike a moving average you don’t average each day in the period.

You calculate the overall midpoint between the highest daily high and the lowest daily low in the period.  This gives you the midpoint of the trading range across the last 9 days. Formula: (9 day high + 9 day low/2)).

The second line is Kijun-Sen (aka Base Line).  This is calculated in the same way as the Conversion Line but has a look back period of 26 days.  This was the original amount of Japanese trading days in 1 month.  Formula: (26 day high +26 day low/2)). The Conversion Line is shorter than the Base Line so it turns more times than the Standard Line - these crossovers can be used much in the same as MA crossovers.

Senkou Span A (aka Leading Span A) is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. This forms one of the cloud boundaries. It is referred to as Leading because it’s plotted 26 days into the future and forms the “faster” cloud boundary.  (Conversion Line + Base Line/2)).

Senkou Span B (aka Leading Span is the midpoint between the 52 day high and the 52 day low in price. Formula: (52 day high + 52 day low/2)). This is the equivalent of 2 trading months. This is also plotted 26 days into the future and forms the “slower” cloud boundary.  

Please note that the spans are similar to 17 day (the midpoint of 9 and 26) and 52 day averages shifted forward.  The Cloud is formed from a shorter term and a longer term average snaking around each other shifted ahead of price.

The final component is the Chikou Span (aka Lagging Span). This is simply the price close plotted 26 days in the past. Below is an example of how this looks:

How to interpret Ichimoku Clouds

The most important aspect of Ichimoku Clouds is how price intersects with the cloud. If the shorter term Span A is above the longer term Span B, prices are running up faster in the short term than they are in the long term.

This is bullish.  Bullish signals become reinforced when the price is above the cloud. If shorter term Span A is below longer term Span B in the short term, prices are falling and this is bearish. Bearish signals are reinforced when the price is below the cloud.

If the price is in the cloud, this is a situation that needs to be resolved. What is important here is the direction from which you entered the cloud.  If price comes into the cloud from above, this is still bullish and the cloud should act as support, if you price comes into the cloud from below, it’s still bearish and the cloud should act as resistance.

Regardless, once price enters the cloud this should be used as a warning signal of a potential change in trend.  The question being asked by price is will the cloud provide support or resistance and transition into a new trend.  It is important to note that clouds are often thicker at turning points especially if the change is dramatic.

If the Lagging Line crosses the cloud often price will follow as well and this is a true confirming signal that the trend has changed. Because it is lagging and slow moving, you are not subject to a lot of false signals with this.

Price crossing the cloud is a signal that can be traded on a shorter time scale as it is subject to false moves. Like mentioned above, until price makes a move into and out of the cloud, the old trend is still intact.

Cloud Span A and Cloud Span B crossing and the cloud changing direction ahead is a signal worth noting. It could bode well for a change in the trend but it is not recommended to trade on this signal.

The Conversion Line crossing the Standard Line can be read like moving averages crossovers and can be traded as such.  These give much shorter term signals because crossovers are rather frequent.

Finally, it is worth noting that Ichimoku Clouds work best in trending markets.  When a market has a long period of consolidation, this is not an indicator one should use. It has worked well with Bitcoin as seen in the chart below.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is still in a bearish trend. The price is below the clouds and is yet to test resistance above. It is a good time to watch for signals that could signal a change in trend.  While things are improving short term, more evidence is needed before an intermediate term trend change is in effect.

About the author

George Samman is the co-founder and COO of BTC.sx, the world’s first bitcoin-only trading platform. He is a former Wall Street Senior Portfolio Manager and Market Strategist as well as a technical analyst. He holds the Chartered Market Techician (CMT) designation. A seasoned trader, George has over ten years of experience in the financial markets.

 

 

Bearbeitet 17. Oktober 2014 von segeln

[Wochen-Umfrage]

toller langer text sogar in rot ..wow geht nicht noch grün gelb blau ?

was ist den die Aussage jetzt `?

 

short oder long ?  glaubst ich oder wer anderer liste das ?

 

ich mag so auswertungen wo kein klares rauf oder runter gesagt wird nicht, das sidn alels keine Händler die selber zochen sondern nur Schreiberlinge ohne Eier dei das selbe nicht handeln und wenns was dann handlen dann gehst schief siehe all die Fonds von sentix, fischer ..oder von schröder dem EWfuzi tssssss

luser

[everthelast]

made my day!     

[segeln]

made my day!     

da ich W U auf ignore habe nehme ich an das bezieht sich auf sein Geschreibsel.

Er hat gar nicht begriffen, dass hier nur die Ichimoku Cloud vorgestellt wurde und keine aktuelle Bitcoin Chartanalyse.

[everthelast]

nehme ich an das bezieht sich auf sein Geschreibsel.

 

yes sir!

[segeln]

Bitcoin Dips on Ben Lawsky Speech

https://blog.fxopen.com/bitcoin-dips-on-ben-lawsky-speech/

 

Bitcoin dipped 1.6 percent as Benjamin Lawsky, the Superintendent of the New York Department of Financial Services, held a speech at the Cardozo Law School. Prices fell from $398.50 to $392.10 in six minutes but later rebounded somewhat.

As the day progressed however, the BTC selling continued and Lawsky’s speech probably had something to do with it. While the Superintendent calmed software developers and individuals miners by saying that they won’t be required to get a licence, the same can’t be said for a whole range of other companies that hold customer funds. While mining itself will not be regulated, if the miner engages in other virtual currency activities, like hosting wallets or exchanging virtual currency, a license may be required. This may affect current mining pools, many of whom temporarily hold the funds of individual miners in online wallets.

 

The NYDFS will make some changes to the original proposal published in July based on the comments it received. But when it comes to cryptocurrency companies that provide financial services or hold customer funds, the new regulation will likely come into force mostly unchanged. The comment period on the original draft will end on October 21st. Then, the NYDFS will publish the new version proposal, after which a new 45 day comment period will begin. Lawsky expects the new regulatory framework regarding cryptocurrencies to come into law by December 2014 or January 2015.

Bitcoin Trading Weaker in Past Two Days

Bitcoin is trading somewhat weaker after reaching a swing high of $408.20 two days ago. Prices lost 12 points on Wednesday and look set to close another day in the red. Bitcoin is currently hovering right above the important $381 level. This figure was the swing high reached during the initial BTC rally from $285 and has now turned into a support level. Prices already tested this level on two occasions today, dripping to $380, only to be quickly repelled higher. But the longer BTC/USD keeps hammering on $380, the more likely we are to see a move lower.

Below $380, the first potential level of support lies at the $343-$350 area. Lower still, the round $300 figure may provide some support, followed by the October 5^th swing low at $285. On the higher end, the first potential resistance can be found at the $408 ($410 to round it off) mark. Higher up, the next hurdle for the bulls will be the post-PayPal high near $450.

Bearbeitet 17. Oktober 2014 von segeln

[everthelast]

http://www.thebitcoinchannel.com/archives/39219

[Wochen-Umfrage]

da ich W U auf ignore habe nehme ich an das bezieht sich auf sein Geschreibsel.

Er hat gar nicht begriffen, dass hier nur die Ichimoku Cloud vorgestellt wurde und keine aktuelle Bitcoin Chartanalyse.

 

 

ahahhaha köstlich ...   bist Hellseher !  oder einfach nur gelogen  .... ums direkt zu sagen

Bearbeitet 17. Oktober 2014 von Wochen-Umfrage